Awards Week 7: Pro Forecasts, Lineups

Awards Week 7: Pro Forecasts, Lineups

I thought I'd try something new this week, a collection of forecasts and links to the Lineup Calculator given those forecasts (unforecasted films set to their Monday defaults) to see if a pattern emerges.

Lineup Summary

Todd Thatcher: 3x HF + Moana + 4x Fences
Deadline: HF + 2x Rogue One + Monster Trucks + 4x Silence
ProBoxOffice: 3x HF + Moana + 4x Fences
BoxOfficeReport: 3x HF + Passengers + 4x Silence
BoxOfficeMojo: 4x HF + 4x Blank

Conclusions:

None of the pros like LLL to get BP over HF. I caution everyone to take fillers with a grain of salt, though. Fillers for a 3x HF are all on the low end and not all pros provided forecasts for Moana, Passengers, Fences, and Silence so given the default of the methodology on this thread was to use their Monday values in the Lineup Calculator, your mileage will vary.

That all stated, unless some other data point comes in, I'm playing 3x HF + Moana + 4x Fences.

Details below.

Todd Thatcher
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Article
https://fantasymovieleague.com/posts/2028/week-7-box-office-estimates


Lineup Calculator
http://analyzer.fmlnerd.com/lineups/?ests=23600000,24100000,17900000,16100000,16400000,11300000,13700000,10100000,8800000,6600000,5300000,5100000,5100000,3300000,3000000

Lineup
3x HF + Moana + 4x Fences

Deadline
--------
Article
http://deadline.com/2017/01/patriots-day-rogue-one-hidden-figures-la-la-land-monster-trucks-martin-luther-king-jr-weekend-box-office-1201883066/

Lineup Calculator (high end set for each forecast)
http://analyzer.fmlnerd.com/lineups/?ests=22000000,22000000,11000000,22000000,20000000,8000000,12000000,14000000,10000000,7065000,5389000,5317000,5244000,3569000,6000000

Lineup
Hidden Figures + 2x Rogue One + Monster Trucks + 4x Silence

ProBoxOffice.com
Article
http://pro.boxoffice.com/4-day-weekend-forecast-patriots-day-monster-trucks-bye-bye-man-live-night-sleepless/

Lineup Calculator
http://analyzer.fmlnerd.com/lineups/?ests=21500000,22000000,9000000,16500000,17500000,7500000,12160000,10000000,9500000,6840000,5389000,5317000,5244000,3569000,3400000

Lineup
3x HF + Moana + 4x Fences

BoxOfficeReport.com
Article
http://www.boxofficereport.com/predictions/predictions20170111.html

Lineup Calculator
http://analyzer.fmlnerd.com/lineups/?ests=25000000,26500000,9500000,18000000,19000000,9000000,14500000,11500000,10500000,7500000,5800000,6000000,5000000,3600000,3700000

Lineup
3x Hidden Figures + Passengers + 4x Silence

BoxOfficeMojo
Article
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4258&p=.htm

Lineup Calculator
http://analyzer.fmlnerd.com/lineups/?ests=21130000,25750000,8750000,16510000,15500000,6300000,15340000,8350000,9060000,9030000

Lineup
4x HF + 4x Blank - Edited


31 Replies

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  • Reserving first comment

  • BSA vs Deadline - Choose your side!

  • Oh I like this format idea!

    ...And definitely #teamBSA.

  • How does ProBO's lineup have 4 fences if they didn't offer an opinion on Fences?

  • this is attempt at something new is a success. i like it!

    what i don't like is how it makes me want to go away from my gamble play this week. but i am gonna stick to my guns and probably regret it.

  • Or just do 5 la la land 2 Moana and 1 fences

  • Or rock 2 blank screens like I'm currently doing ;) I like to live dangerously. - Edited

  • @Iggy: Per PBO and Fences, "unforecasted films set to their Monday defaults". It's an imperfect science 8). - Edited

  • Added BOR

  • Is BOR available now?

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