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Good Wednesday all, BS here, with your Awards Season Week 7 BSA! First a recap of last week's BSA, which saw the BSA cut the cord with our dearest Moana! Waaaahhhh! It was very difficult to do that, but the end result was a successful BSA, as Moana was not close in the BP race, and didn't factor into the PC. This brings the overall success rate up to 54 for 62 (87.09%). Moving on to Week 7, and there were MANY candidates for the BSA, but most didn't meet the criteria for % played by the FMLverse. So, with that in mind, this week the BSA advises against:
Silence is expanding this week to approximately 750 theaters. That's an O.K. expansion, and it appears that many in FML are buying into the 85% RT score, as it is currently being screened by over 1/3 of FML players. I am NOT going to be one of those players, and here are my reasons why:
SUBJECT MATTER / RUN-TIME / RATING - Silence is a 2 hr 41 minute R rated Drama about Catholicism in 17th Century Japan. Let me repeat that - R rating, almost 3 hours long, heavy subject matter. Looking for escapism at the movieplex over the upcoming 4-day weekend? Silence is DEFINITELY NOT the movie for you then! No one is showing up at the movies, perusing the marquee, and saying, "yeah, let's give Silence a try." Silence is aimed at a very finite crowd, and I don't think that crowd is very large.
COMPETITION - Silence is expanding into an arena where many Awards type movies are doing very well. Hidden Figures, La La Land, Fences, even Manchester By The Sea, and Lion, all are doing brisk business. I'll even add in Patriots Day, as that will be going nationwide this weekend. With so many options out there, Silence will not have a say in the choices of moviegoers this weekend.
PRICING - FML accurately priced Silence as the lowest priced movie, $47 FML BUX. However, Fences is priced at $49 FML BUX, and one that I consider to be a better value. SO, if you are looking to fill those last slots in your Cineplex, and your choices are Fences or Silence, I'd choose Fences.
BOTTOM LINE - This week is a minefield, trying to navigate your way to the PC. Don't end up with a bout of Cineplex Laryngitis, by trying to shout your way to a Silence BP and PC. As always, good luck!
Even though it doesn't meet the BSA criteria, I feel the need to speak directly to the 11.5% of FML currently screening SLEEPLESS!
Are you trying to just throw FML BUX out the window?!? This movie should be in EVERYONE'S Race To The Bottom Lineup!
Jamie Foxx is not carrying this movie remotely close to a double digit opening. You want a great comp for Sleepless - Here's one, and the opening weekend is about the same as to what you should expect for Sleepless this weekend!
So, please, to the 11.5% - I'm not advising, I'm slapping you across the face, stop it! Don't screen Sleepless - the % played should be ZERO! You'll thank me on Tuesday!
https://giphy.com/gifs/slapping-jHYDsUcDBSHeM - Edited
Enjoy the Silence is a great song. I agree with this BSA, though for the most part it is SkyNet's most entertaining member exhibiting the silence this week
agreed. I'm always a little sad to see the BSA come out on a movie i had already written off but what can I do, that is a staggeringly high usage percentage, especially considering how high Fences is at the same price point
this seems like a week where big moves could be made and i am gonna try and make one.
Silence and Sleepless won't be involved though.
Tough week for the BSA with only six movies meeting the minimum 25% usage threshold thanks to a vast majority of FML on some variety of the "Hidden Fences" lineup.
Blackhat had the mammoth release of American Sniper but Sleepless won't break double digits.
Oooh, the deadline projections seem to disagree...
Awards season is the one time of year I'm at least fairly knowledgeable about films which are coming out and I've at least heard of most films by name (even if I know nothing about them, like Bye Bye Man and Monster Trucks) a week before they are playable. I never knew Sleepless existed until I logged onto here Monday night. Not a good sign at all for me. These days, I bet most people go 'look, Django's in a new movie' if they were to see an ad, that's how far Jamie Foxx's star power had plummeted. - Edited
Pro Box Office predictions are in, and they have:
Silence - $3.4 mil for the 4-day
Now, they don't list Fences, which would make you think that it is predicted for a total less than that, but Pro also didn't list Moana and Passengers which would be shocking if they both finished under $3.4 mil for the 4-day. I think they just wanted to include a prediction for Silence, without listing the exact place it would finish.
When you see the connection between the title of the BSA and the movie chosen: http://giphy.com/gifs/ma-gif-7dB8nT5Q5t9hm
Anyway I think I'm on board, although it is nagging at me a little. Just doesn't seem like it'll have the volume. I do feel that its overall appeal might be a little wider than you suggest. It's certainly long (I know this isn't a comp because of the subject matter and Leo, but Wolf of Wall Street was even longer) and seems like its almost punishingly heavy. But Scorsese, Andrew Garfield, Liam Neeson, Adam Driver, and mostly great reviews? Not going to dismiss that. And you pointed to the subject matter as a negative, which yeah, it's definitely not going to draw the escapist crowd, but let's also not forget that there are 70,000,000 Catholics in the US.
Not sure what the expansion plans are past this weekend but it could have some decent legs. Interested to see if it's able to sneak in any major Oscar noms in a couple weeks.