Hedging with Henry - Awards Week 7

This is a weekly column for a specific community here at FML: the hedgers. Chasing the Perfect Cineplex (PC) can cause wild swings in your standings, especially in your private leagues. You don't win poker by going "all in" every hand; you strategically make wise bets and wait for the right hand. Many of us have had great success simply hedging our bets, regularly coming in 2nd or 3rd each week, and winning our private league. This is a conversation for those people.

HEDGING COMPETITION: To qualify you must:
1) Post your top 5 BP contenders and your hedge recommendation (which MUST include 3 of your top 5 BP Contenders) by lock time to this post.
2) You must enter the hedge and BP contenders in this Google sheet (add your name at the top at the end if you haven't already). Enter a 1 next to each of your BP contenders; enter the number of screens per cinema for your hedge, and enter the day you post your hedge to the chatter (chatter posts will be used to confirm submissions):
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1A7QmPJ26qH2eBiuzY_qm0DJuXIMNw6eFh0-_Y0fVcmg/edit?usp=sharing#gid=542723415
3) 1MM per day bonus for posting your final submission before Friday to this post (e.g. 2MM for posting on Wednesday, 1MM for Thursday). Edited posts get no bonus (instead edit and remove content of prior post and post again so your unedited post's timestamp makes it clear when your submission was).

- Top scoring cinema (minus PC bonus) and BP Predictor each gets a trophy!
- Most trophies in a season gets a prize valued at $5 or more! Season tiebreaker will be the best sum of cinema values (minus PC bonus) from submitted weeks - more submissions means you are more likely to win the tiebreaker.

ESTIMATED BEST PERFORMER (BP) CANDIDATES: Hidden Figures, La La Land, Sing, Monster Trucks, Moana

ESTIMATED WORST PERFORMER CANDIDATES: Sleepless, Live By Night

Reasoning for your hedge: See Comments

RECOMMENDED HEDGE: Hidden x2, La La, Moana x3, Passengers, Silence
Confidence level: 45%
ALT HEDGE: Hidden , Sing, La La, Underworld, Moana, Passengers x3
Confidence level: 40%

LaLaReady Hedge: Hidden, LaLax4, Moana, Silence
Confidence Level: 28%


BP DATA (see spreadsheet for full data):
Patriots Day - 0
Hidden Figures - 18
Live By Night - 0
Rogue One - 5
Sing - 11
Sleepless - 0
La La Land - 15
Monster Trucks - 8
The Bye Bye Man - 2
Underworld: Blood Wars - 3
Moana - 2
Passengers - 13
Why Him? - 0
Fences - 8
Silence - 3

Spreadsheet of data:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1A7QmPJ26qH2eBiuzY_qm0DJuXIMNw6eFh0-_Y0fVcmg/edit?usp=sharing

SECRETS OF THE HEDGE:
1. Your goal is to get 2 screens of the bonus winner in your Cineplex
2. Try and get 3 of the top 5 bonus contenders in your Cineplex
3. Don't over-diversify; a good hedge on a normal week has 4-5 movies in it
4. Use as many Bux as you can to maximize potential ROI
5. Stay away from potential Worst Performers
6. Be ok losing out on breakout performances, as long as you don't get sunk by surprise bombs
7. Know when to abandon the hedge and go for the PC

METRICS OF SUCCESS:
1. You have the BP in your Cineplex
2. 75% of your movies are in the top 7 performers for the week
3. You are in the top 10-15% of the league you care about each week
4. You accurately gauged the ranges and estimates for the movies
5. You accurately gauged the risks for the week

"The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing." -James Collins, Good to Great

P.S. If you want to join Switzerland to have some people to bounce ideas off of to try and identify the most accurate predictions, come on down: http://bit.ly/2h313x0 - Edited


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  • AWARDS WEEK 6 IN REVIEW:

    Well with a $1.2MM preview, Hidden Figures came out of the shadows and declared herselves the clear BP winner. I did not do my due diligence before (I honestly doubted the movie's potential), and did not have ceilings calculated for any of the alternative, and in my haste almost believed Why Him had a chance, but upon recalculation, saw the error I made and called for an abandon of the hedge in time to grab the PC. However, the real hedge posted in the ALT still was a success, at a little over $3MM behind the PC minus bonus, so overall a great week!

    This brings our success rate to 19 for 24 (79%) with 2 PCs (ALT hedges included are 21 for 24 [87%] with 4 PCs).

    The Perfect Cinema (minus bonus): Hidden x3, AC, Manchester x3, Beasts - $88,055,655

    10% line - $84,767,336
    15% line - $74,572,283

    RECOMMENDED HEDGE: Hidden x3, AC, Manchester x3, Beasts - $88,055,655
    ALT RECOMMENDED HEDGE: Hidden x2, Why Him x4, AC, Manchester- $83,903,471

    Let's look at our metrics of success:
    1. You have the BP in your Cineplex - Rec (Yes); Alt (Yes)
    2. 75% of your movies are in the top 7 performers for the week - Rec (Yes); Alt (Yes)
    3. You are in the top 15% of the league you care about each week - Rec (Yes); Alt (Yes)
    4. You accurately gauged the ranges (and estimates) for the movies: 2 for 15 (within ~10% margin of error). Was high on pretty much everything, most likely due to the storm
    5. You accurately gauged the risks for the week: Yes. Once the preview number came in, it became clear (after getting the numbers right) that Hidden Figures had the only sensible, comp-existing path to the BP, thus making the 3x play the only sensible play, and giving us the PC as a decent hedge became impossible.

    AWARDS:

    Trophy for Top Hedge Cinema: DB22 and FMLDylan!
    Trophy for BP Contender Prediction goes to: Ingy!

    I hate weeks like this because it makes my game much tougher to judge. My rule was your submitted hedge must include 3 of your top 5 BP contenders, on the honor system, so if your hedge did not include at least 3 of your stated top 5, you did not get the $2MM PC bonus (which did happen). I hope to be as fair as possible and this was what I came up with.

    Here is your trophy!
    http://i758.photobucket.com/albums/xx221/B_Oceander/GIF_Animations/winner-trophy.gif

    Feel free to check my math and view top 1-7 rankings on the second sheet of this spreadsheet:
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LY5miBxQZ7aeoN5BphBkjZE-vLrB0fR2VrPmkyGSAhs/edit?usp=sharing#gid=542723415

    SEASON TROPHY RANKINGS:

    Phil's Phun: 3
    Uldaddy: 2
    DB22: 2
    Jordan Michael B: 1
    SCV: 1
    BDC: 1
    CCR: 1
    FMLDylan: 1
    Inglorious: 1 - Edited

  • SEASON CINEMA RANKINGS:
    1 - DB22 - $604,612,429
    2 - Uldaddy - $604,307,408
    3 - SCV - $602,266,698
    4 - Furiosa - $596,402,327
    5 - Chalmskinn - $596,232,356
    6 - BB: There is no Try - $594,216,422
    7 - Dylan/ - $588,577,159
    8 - Darkroom - $581,323,886
    9 - Mr Scorpio - $580,079,825
    10 - M T Mopboy - $580,069,262
    11 - CCR - $565,540,481
    12 - Atomo-vision - $564,679,125
    13 - Phil's Phun - $560,292,521
    14 - BDC - $559,684,248
    15 - AreYouNotEntertained - $540,899,299
    16 - Metatron - $519,657,057
    17 - killahs - $472,563,286
    18 - FMLDylan - $434,632,240
    19 - Bowser - $406,289,704
    20 - DrapersDriveIn - $397,485,593
    21 - Smithodeon - $377,187,468
    22 - Anepic - $239,463,058
    23 - INGY - $235,150,051
    24 - FACE/TOFF - $167,821,332
    25 - SpursMamatova - $130,143,458
    26 - Hot Fez - $120,404,812
    27 - Jordan Michael B. - $65,504,808
    28 - Digifreak - $64,504,808
    29 - HMG: Hoosier - $59,217,438
    30 - Astotti - $53,205,827


    SEASON BP PREDICTION RANKINGS:
    1 - CCR - 316
    2 - DB22 - 315
    3 - M T Mopboy - 311
    4 - Phil's Phun - 311
    5 - Darkroom - 310
    6 - BB: There is no Try - 309
    7 - SCV - 306
    8 - Chalmskinn - 306
    9 - Dylan/ - 300
    10 - Uldaddy - 296
    11 - Furiosa - 295
    12 - Atomo-vision - 293
    13 - Mr Scorpio - 267
    14 - killahs - 254
    15 - AreYouNotEntertained - 244
    16 - BDC - 235
    17 - DrapersDriveIn - 230
    18 - Metatron - 224
    19 - Bowser - 209
    20 - FMLDylan - 180
    21 - Anepic - 150
    22 - Smithodeon - 114
    23 - Hot Fez - 102
    24 - FACE/TOFF - 96
    25 - INGY - 89
    26 - Jordan Michael B. - 57
    27 - Digifreak - 55
    28 - HMG: Hoosier - 43
    29 - Astotti - 43
    30 - SpursMamatova - 0 - Edited

  • Gonna get my way too early hedge in really early this week.

    Top 5

    Hidden Figures
    Rogue One
    La La Land
    Passengers
    Fences

    Way Too Early Hedge

    1x Hidden Figures | 3x La La Land | 3x Passengers | 1x Fences

  • Bump.

  • Top 5: LLL, Fences, Hidden Figures, Passengers, Sing
    Hedge: 2x HF, 2x LLL, 4x Fences

    I'll be keeping an eye on the LLL dailies and theater expansion. I've gone back and forth between this lineup and the 3x HF, 1x Moana, 4x Fences one. Sadly, I don't have Moana near my top 5 so that would not qualify as a hedge.

  • @Uldaddy - use Passengers instead of Moana.

  • BP: HF, Fences, La La, Sing, Passengers

    Hedge: 3 HF, 1 Pass, 4 Fences

  • @Spacey - I realized that about 5 minutes after my post but was too lazy to change it now. I fear Passengers may lose a decent amount of theaters so I'm going to stick with my current hedge. But my backup definitely contains Passengers now.

  • TOP 5
    HF
    R1
    LLL
    Pass
    Fences

    HEDGE
    2x HF 2x LLL 4x Fences

  • Top 5 BP:
    Fences
    Hidden Figures
    La La Land
    Passengers
    Sing

    Hedgeplex:
    3 x Hidden Figures
    1 x Passengers
    4 x Fences

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