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I just couldn't resist!
Welcome back to BOLD predictions with Ari (that's me!) I expect to be here wrong 90% of the time, but I hope to usually be wrong in the right way, if that makes any sense. However, that means I will be right at least once per season. (roughly.) And it won't always be right, but it will always be BOLD. Hopefully someday FML gives me the ability to make it in BOLD as well.
Note that this probably marks the end of my Love/Hate post. It was a fun ride for a few weeks, but it didn't really seem to be adding much to the chatter. So instead I'll continue this weekly post, and if I see more of the data points I would've put in the Love/Hate post, I'll put them in their own threads.
Also, I apologize if this week's post is a bit weaker than usual as I'm coming of a virus from the weekend.
This week's BOLD prediction:
MONSTER TRUCKS WILL MAKE OVER TWENTY MILLION DOLLARS ($20,000,000) IN ITS FOUR-DAY OPENING WEEKEND
Is that you, Tarzan?
Yes, while it seems like no question that Monster Trucks will flop horrendously for Paramount, the degree of that seems to be overblown by many, including the FML pricing team. Some of you may remember this week last year, when I wrote an extended post that counter-balanced what seemed to be a one-sided discussion on Norm of the North. By the weekend, it was made clear that I was right and Norm was not a good play FML-wise. That was maybe my proudest moment in FML. So now I'll go through that post and discuss why the points I made then don't apply now, and point to Monster Trucks going over 20M at least. Feel free to review that full post here:
1) "Major studios have almost entirely avoided kids movies on MLK weekend. It appears that they just don't think it's a good time to release kids movies. And maybe they're wrong, but betting against them is risky." This proved to be right last year, as there really wasn't an opening for an animated. However, the date for Monster Trucks was chosen back in 2015, when Paramount didn't have this pegged as a bust. And there's also room for kids movies to sometimes open big, notably 2009's Paul Blart at 39.2M over the 4-day weekend.
2) "Norm is coming from Lionsgate Animation. Simply put, Lionsgate does not have the track record of a Pixar or Dreamworks. In fact, there's hardly any at all."
While Lionsgate has failed repeatedly to get off the ground in animation (see: The Wild Life) Nickelodeon Animation has done quite well! Most of their big successes have been based off existing properties, including a pair of 50M+ openers in TMNT and SpongeBob, but they've also had a good number of hits from original films. They've even had an MLK weekend hit, with 2009's Hotel for Dogs taking $22.9M opening weekend.
3) "The extra ticket price boost of 3D showings, and lack thereof for Norm of the North, must be taken into account here." Well, you better believe that some people are going to pay big bucks to see 3D monsters in trucks, and a lot more than a twerking polar bear!
4) "Norm of the North is sitting right now at [a Rotten Tomatoes want-to-see score of] 64%" Monster Trucks right now is at 72%, which is not much better. But the critics score is MUCH better than the horrific 0% for Norm.
5) "Advertising for this film has been overshadowed by upcoming releases for much more exciting films like Kung Fu Panda 3 and Zootopia." A similar case can be made involving LEGO Batman and Beauty and the Beast, but I think those have different audiences, and neither of them are within a month, giving some breathing room to Monster Trucks.
The most important thing is that ridiculous $125M budget number. Paramount has already admitted that they're not expecting to recover most of that, but they don't appear to have fully given up. iSpot data is no longer public for total commercials, but I've seen plenty to know that they're still advertising this in hopes of some, albeit very limited, success. And you just can't convince me that this doesn't beat Norm of the North.
But it's not animated and has a metascore of 37 right now...
Welcome back. If this happens, whoever plays it pretty much is in the drivers seat for the season title
It's got Rob Lowe in it, so it can't be that bad
Driver's seat? I see what you did there ...
Is Matthew Berry your father?
I wouldn't lose sleep on it Mem. Sometimes you have to live it up when times are dark like these
if i was in 3000th place and also (somehow) ahead in my private league i would play a lineup following this advice.
but only one of those above scenarios is true so i will ignore this bold prediction while giving kudos for being very bold.
I like it. I like it a lot.