Fall Week 1 Bonus Bar & Contenders

Bonus Bar is set at 45K, comparing the 4 day vs. the 3 day from the previous weekend. Good luck figuring this week given all the factors: measuring how much did the fight & hurricane impact last weekend's BO, how will the latter impact this weekend, the labor day bump, the lack of competition with no wide releases. Take my tiers with a bit of a grain of salt, tried my best to separate the contenders from the pretenders, but it's hard when my initial numbers have 12 out the 15 movies within 5K, I could see a lot of movies moving up or down after daily numbers & TC come out (We could see some surprise expansions). This week mostly reminds me of Awards week 10 (SB weekend) where 9 movies finished within 5K of the BP, including 5 within less than 1K.

TOP BP CONTENDERS

WIND RIVER | 5.7m (23%) | Really solid pta hold last week given the large expansion & the factors mentioned above. Could possibly expand further. Hell or High Water had an awesome performance last year, although that was a bit aided by a 43% TC increase.
HAZLO COMO HOMBRE | 4.2m (New) | If you use No Manches Frida as a template (especially given that both had very similar Mexican OW box office numbers) this one seems like the most likely BP. However a couple of factors make me a bit dubious. Weather forecasters have mentioned that hurricane Harvey should continue to affect Texas through-out Friday at least & given that close to 20% of the latino's in the US live there, it could really impact the OW. The second thing is the R rating, none of the previous Pantelion Labor Day releases carried that rating & it could limit of people that are interested in the film given the family centric holiday.
SPIDER-MAN: HOMECOMING | 3.6m (26%) | Marvel films tend to have pretty big increases on this weekend given their family appeal. Ant-Man increased 22% two years ago & GotG 33% in 2014.

UPPER MID TIER

ANNABELLE: CREATION | 6.9m (-10%) | Last chance to see it before It comes out next week. Not a lot of options for teens out there. Will keep almost all of its theaters. Had one of the biggest fight related impacts. Solid Sun to Mon hold. Sinister 2 only dropped 10% a couple of years ago.
BIRTH OF THE DRAGON | 2.1m (-22%) | The movie with probably the widest range of outcomes at this point. Daily numbers & Fandango check (candidate to split screens) should make it clear by Friday. Pretty big impact from the fight last week. Low bar to clear given that most movies released the weekend before Labor Day usually see week 2 drops in the 20%-25% range (Don't Breathe, Mechanic: Resurrection, If I Stay, The Mortal Instruments, The World's End, Hit & Run, etc) regardless of reviews / reception.


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  • Nope....

  • If Wind River doesn't expand are you still as bullish?

  • I like your Jane's Got a Gun comp. My Cousin Rachel come to mind for me.

    Hard to pinpoint these movies as you have very little to go by. The fact that there are no reviews means it is still under embargo or not?

  • Okay Garb, that's what I thought. So, given that it is available to purchase digitally why would it still be an option on FML. I can't understand why someone would pay to see it in the theatre this week if they can simply purchase it and have if for their viewing pleasure

  • Because your television is not the big screen.

  • TRUE....but anyone who wanted to see it on the big screen would have seen it there by now IMO. Oh well, this is one aspect of the game I will never understand.

  • You really think HCH can get over $4m with 370 theaters? That seems like a reach.

  • Do these small Pantelion releases ever get preview numbers?

    I went to my normal sources for multipliers, but don't see any listed there. I feel as if there's going to be a lot of guesswork on Hombres and no hard data.

  • Usually no

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