Let's Talk About Hardcore Henry
So far it seems to me like the most interesting movie on the board in Hardcore Henry. In a week where it looks like the PC could easily go south of $70m, HH could be a separator, good or bad, given that it can played four times and you could convince me it'll make $5m or $15m. Here's where I'm at right now...
For starters, let's set the bonus bar at a probably too high $55k and see where everything shakes out...
Batman v Superman - $31.0m (-39.7%)
The Boss - $26.1m (DEBUT)
Zootopia - $18.4m (-4.9%)
Hardcore Henry - $11.1m (DEBUT)
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 - $7.9m (-29.9%)
Miracles From Heaven - $6.2m (-15.1%)
God's Not Dead 2 - $5.2m (-32.2%)
Divergent: Allegiant - $4.0m (-31.3%)
10 Cloverfield Lane - $3.9m (-14.4%)
Eye in the Sky - $3.6m (-9.8%)
Demolition - $3.2m (DEBUT)
Deadpool - $3.0m (-14.1%)
Meet The Blacks - $2.6m (-36.3%)
Hello, My Name is Doris - $2.2m (-7.3%)
London Has Fallen - $1.4m (-24.5%)
Barring an Eye from the Sky expansion, HH at $11m is the only plausible one on the board to me. For starters, here's the pattern we're seeing on Pro Box Office...
Initial LRF: $8,500,000
Final LRF: $10,500,000
Weekend Projection: ???
Since the dawn of FML, 17 movies have seen their initial-to-final LRF increase by 20% or more. 11 of the 17 beat their final LRF, and on average, the 17 have outpaced their final LRF by 11.7%. That would put HH arund $11.8m right now. Not too shabby.
Next, let's consider the studio, STX Entertainment. They've only got three movies, but so far, I'd say they're doing ok...
The lowest opening per theater on the boad there is Secret in their Eyes at $2,781/theater. Give that to HH's 3000 theaters and you end up at $8.3m. Not great. However, if it can get to around $4300 like The Boy or The Gift, we're at $12.9m. Nice.
Finally, let's consider genre. Since there isn't a "first-person movie" genre, let's use video game adaptations, b/c that's the best we're gonna do here...
I think the real key here is any video game movie that opens in 3000+ theaters. Only one has ever gone under $10m, and that was Hitman: Agent 47. That movie was 1) TERRIBLE, and 2) a reboot of another movies that was TERRIBLE. HH, by the grace of God, has great reviews right now.
Now, the obvious question is whether or not HH not being tied to any video game franchise matters. I'm not sure it does. Need For Speed did ok last year, and its popularity has been waning for years. Hitman has also seen its heyday come and go, so that low opening there doesn't scare me. Even Prince of Persia in 2010 was about five years past the height of that franchise. I will say, the one worry is that I don't hear a lot of hype for this in anyb of the video game outlets I frequent, but I have seen plenty of trailers.
Right now, I don't know how I leave HH off my lineup. The upside is just too good, and if it breaks out, it could be a total game changer. Thoughts?
I'm very much undecided on Henry, but I will note this: Seems interesting that this film would be the first from STX to hit 3,000 theaters (if the Mojo number is accurate). Two of the previous three were horror/suspense, which are naturally lower, and SiTE came out just before Thanksgiving when theaters are already crammed with product (and wasn't projected to do all that much). But still, 3K is a lot for a film like this.
And Phil - you whiffed on the title for this post!
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0102768/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1Apr 5, 2016, 8:03am PDTEdited
I'm currently playing it 4x. The only caution is the R Rating, but I don't think that's much of an obstacle. I have it making a generous 12m and the BP pick for me.Apr 5, 2016, 8:04am PDT
Look's like I have a spit takes with Steve topicApr 5, 2016, 8:05am PDT
But will you be able to pick Deadpool for the 5th consecutive week with Henry? Seems like they're pulling from the exact same demo.Apr 5, 2016, 8:10am PDT
They are but the baton has to be passed eventually, knowhatimean?Apr 5, 2016, 8:11am PDT
I think you are right on. I honestly think it will be close to 15 million, just a gut feeling. Not really any movies in my opinion with any higher ceiling than this one but it also does have the lowest floor! Still kicking myself for not choosing London has fallen as my final movie or I would have three perfect cinemas already this season.Apr 5, 2016, 8:12am PDT
I'm sitting between 9-11.5 on it, both of which are playable numbers. If it gets over 10 it contends for BP. It is one of the two anchors I'm looking at most.Apr 5, 2016, 8:28am PDT
This seems the appropriate place. Now I share this not to embarrass or shame or make fun of my stepson, but because I feel full disclosure is needed to fully emphasize my point. I made the mistake of not checking with him on Deadpool. After the fact I told him about how it exploded in the BO, and he was like "duh dude". So I love the kid but here's my point.
My stepson is your quintessential millennial slacker. He's a good kid, but Quentin Tarantino couldn't create a more emblematic character for what I feel HH's (hard)core target market is. My 20 year old stepson literally works at a pizza place, living in our basement (like a slob), drinking Mt Dews and vaping while constantly playing First Person POV games like COD, Hitman, GTA and the like. Also, his reddit game is STRONG. He's constantly receiving little gifts and packages from his "reddit friends". If I didn't know any better I'd worry about him being in a sleeper cell or some kind of weird cult.
So when I ask him what the word on the street is with this movie, and he says "huh?". That tells ME that either their marketing is completely off and they're missing their target audience or it's just not going to catch on. He hadn't even heard of it. He then sends me some Reddit links. The Director of HH opened up a Q&A forum and got to a total of 175 comments (out of 230mil+ unique monthly visitors). A lot of which were about the word Hardcore (and it's subsequent google searches) and a lot about something he did called Bad Mofo'er (Censor bots) which I couldn't google from work to figure out what it even is. I gleaned that it was how he made his name as a POV director. The interest in the gaming community seems minimal if not non-existent. There's plenty of talk about motion sickness (The Walk anyone), and the Hard R only further cuts off potential "core audience" dollars. (although my brother did take my 10yr old nephew to see Deadpool so I may be overemphasizing this point)
What have we learned in this game when the core target demographic is missed??? I strongly feel we're looking closer to the original LRF of $8.5mil and I'd still lean towards the under on that....Apr 5, 2016, 8:30am PDT
That's really surprising because I've seen it before nearly every movie I've gone to lately, SPECIFICALLY Deadpool. I've seen commercials on tv AND on Hulu for cable cutters. But if it's missing its ACTUAL demographic...I'm gonna need to do some more researchApr 5, 2016, 8:39am PDT
Am I sensing some snark there AG? One simply dost not anger thine own geek!
What else does anyone think of when it comes to First Person POV? With lots of action and gruesome killing? I only get to the Gaming community and commercials for said games. I'll admit I'm not a part of that world in any way shape or form. So I have to lean on my resources for information when it comes to movies like this. He correctly steered me from Hitman and I whiffed on Deadpool so I like my track record.
Who's excited to see this movie this weekend?Apr 5, 2016, 8:57am PDT