Thursday Fandango Check - Fall Week 11

@phils_phun_phlicks · Phil's Phun Phlicks!
Nov 9, 2017, 10:29am PST

Ok, time to see how showtimes are shaping up for the Nielsen Top 40+1 markets. Data table is below...

And now, below, I present the FSS gross/show that you'll need to expect to in order for a movie to win the bonus. I get a lot of questions how I derive this, so here's a quick primer on how I calc this...

  • Total showtimes are set equal to [Shows/Theater] observed in the top 40+1 multiplied by the total number of theaters showing found on BOMojo and then slightly reduced to account for the fact that many theaters in the top 40+1 have far more screens than theaters in smaller areas. This factor ranges from 70%-98% and depends on the shows/theater.
  • If the theater count is known at the time of this writing, I use that theater count as the national number. If not, I take the observed theater change in the top 40+1 data and apply it to the national number with some adjustment based on how the Top 40+1 week over week dropped compared to the national drop. If the theater count is not known and it's a platform release expanding, I assume the Top 40+1 represents 40% of the total locations (based off past observation).
  • BO Receipts are set equal to CCR's Bonus Bar unless new information necessitates a change.
  • For new releases with Thursday previews, I am now using a sampling of a few markets to see how many Thursday shows there are relative to the Top 40+1 counts, and then multiplying the total shows by that factor. For historicals, I have for now used a proxy of 10% as I continue to refine this methodology.

Bonus Bar will remain at $100k.

Movie | Gross/show | Change from LW
Thor: Ragnarok | $574/show |-28.5%
Murder on the Orient Express | $437/show |DEBUT
Daddy's Home 2 | $352/show |DEBUT
A Bad Moms' Christmas | $182/show |-24.8%
Jigsaw | $105/show |-27.1%
Boo 2! | $124/show |-14.0%
Geostorm | $121/show |13.1%
Thank You For Your Service | $239/show |180.4%
Happy Death Day | $94/show |-0.6%
Blade Runner 2049 | $184/show |-3.8%
Only the Brave | $154/show |45.5%
Victoria & Abdul | $147/show |12.9%
The Foreigner | $118/show |7.4%
It | $80/show |-15.7%
Suburbicon | $2,627/show |4192.0%

  • 68k shows for Murder on the Orient Express is about 1k fewer than Jack Reacher 2 last fall. I don't know why I keep going back to Sully as a comp for this, but it works well on a $/show basis - Sully grossed about $455/show last fall, which is right around what MotOE needs.
  • 79k shows for Daddy's Home 2 is about 4k more than Central Intelligence when it opened last summer. Really not a lot of PG-13 comedy comps in this volume range over the last couple years. CI grossed $472/show, but that was summer.
  • So, my method puts Suburbicon in about 40 theaters, so that pct is probably wrong, but I'm leaving it there b/c it makes me laugh.
  • TYFYS mostly splitting screens now, so it's gonna need an amazing holiday bump to have a shot.

16 Replies

  • Reply #1

    That Suburbicon number is hilarious. In case you're wondering, 20.9% of FML is currently playing Suburbicon despite IT being a perfectly valid substitute.

    @backseatdirecting · BackseatDirecting
    Nov 9, 2017, 10:35am PST
  • Reply #2

    That Suburbicon number is amazing.

    @garbs · The Garbera Redemption (KotRT)
    Nov 9, 2017, 10:35am PST
  • Reply #3

    It definitely seems like the best bet out of the bottom-feeders this week.

    @honest_ray · Honest Ray's Cinematorium and Buffeteria
    Nov 9, 2017, 10:36am PST
  • Reply #4

    I just hate having to include It in the films I'm looking closely at.

    @ccr · CCR
    Nov 9, 2017, 10:43am PST
  • Reply #5

    I was a little surprised by the deep cut in TYFYS's theaters being Veterans Day weekend , but then again, with it barely being over $1K per theater last weekend I probably shouldn't have been.

    @bdc · Billion Dollar Cineplex
    Nov 9, 2017, 11:20am PST
  • Reply #6

    This week would have been so much more interesting if Suburbicon and IT had been replaced by Lady Bird and Let There Be Sorbo.

    @realfakefilms · Real Fake Films: Octosplit △
    Nov 9, 2017, 11:23am PST
  • Reply #7

    The good thing about this weekend is, most lineups that aren't BMC-heavy require a lot of bottom feeders. So that allows a bet on a discount bonus without undermining the rest of the lineup too much.

    @honest_ray · Honest Ray's Cinematorium and Buffeteria
    Nov 9, 2017, 11:34am PST
  • Reply #8

    Did they say why they only added the 2 movies this week?

    @faster · Faster (R)
    Nov 9, 2017, 11:35am PST
  • Reply #9

    Probably couldn't decide on TCs for the other options, didn't want to risk a potential runaway BP.

    @snoop · Snoop D-O-Double G
    Nov 9, 2017, 11:37am PST
  • Reply #10

    This certainly keeps all my contenders in contention.

    @fourthwall · Fourth Wall
    Nov 9, 2017, 12:21pm PST
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