Fall17 Week 11 Bonus Bar & Contenders
Bonus bar set at 100K. Veterans Day on Saturday (with many schools closed on Friday), which will give a nice boost to the weekend BO, especially to the family friendly films. It's possible that we also see a post Thor rebound for some films.
TOP BP CONTENDERS
DADDY'S HOME 2 | 26.6m (New) | Last LRF at $24m. The original smashed past expectations with a $38m opening & 150m total. Review won't matter. The market is really lacking family options right now. Should have solid volume with a 3,300+ TC & 2 screens in a lot of places. The catch is that comedy sequels have had a hard time in the market lately, with almost every option falling under expectations & Pre-sales have been bad, although the original wasn't really pre-sales heavy at all.
TYLER PERRY'S BOO 2! A MADEA HALLOWEEN | 2.5m (-45%) | Boo! saw a 55% drop on a similar weekend last year, but it's important to note that it had to face against Almost Christmas, which targeted a nearly identical demo. Should hold on to most of its theaters. Does DH2 take enough to pull it down a notch?
BLADE RUNNER 2049 | 1.4m (-40%) | 5th highest pta last week out of the films in the slate means it should keep most of its theaters. Pta only dropped 7% last weekend despite Thor's release.
UPPER MID TIER
THOR: RAGNAROK | 65.9m (-46%) | Highest floor of any movie. Could end up as the default anchor if the two new releases disappoint or one of the lower priced movies takes the BP. Look for it match Dr. Strange's week 2 drop, with a slight chance at it ending up in BP contention given the strong reviews & the lack of family options on a family heavy weekend.
MURDER ON THE ORIENT EXPRESS (2017) | 28.4m (New) | Last LRF at $25m. Looks like it should be getting solid volume with 3,300+ theaters & a good amount of showtimes. Movie is based on a pretty famous novel. Pre sales have been okay (made Pulse since yesterday), although the fact it hasn't appeared in MT is a bit concerning. Priced a bit aggressively, the ceiling doesn't appear to be high enough to end up running away with the bonus.
A BAD MOMS CHRISTMAS | 10.5m (-37%) | If you combine the original's 41% week 2 drop & this one's Wednesday opening, it's hard to not see it as a top contender. However, it's B Cinemascore & 55% liked it are much worse than the previous installment & the fact that it's a sequel will definitely impact its hold.
GEOSTORM | 1.9m (-41%) | In a similar position to BR & it's PG-13 rating means it could get a bigger VD boost. However, it does seem like it caught some Thor overflow propping up its weekend (so it won't rebound) & it had a much lower pta, so a decent sized TC looks more likely.
THANK YOU FOR YOUR SERVICE (2017) | 1.8m (-18%) | There's a decent chance that we get a Mother's Day type situation with TYFYS, with a giant VD bump. But the bar was set incredibly high & while Hacksaw Ridge did get a solid boost last year, it was nowhere close to what TYFYS needs given its tepid reception, performance so far, low pta & the fact that it should lose a decent amount of theaters.
HAPPY DEATH DAY | 1.6m (-41%) | I expect a performance closer to Ouija than Ouija: OoE given that the TC cut shouldn't be as big & the fact that the latter had to face off against Shut In. It still looks unlikely to reach the bar given how those two films performed in similar weekends.
VICTORIA AND ABDUL | 1m (-17%) | With Lady Bird killing it on its first weekend & now starting to expand, 3 billboards & most importantly Murder on the Orient Express releasing this weekend, the speciality / older crowd market is starting to get really crowded. Hasn't had a drop under 22% since it first expanded wide, it's probably not happening this weekend.
THE FOREIGNER | 0.9m (-44%) | Under 1,100 pta last weekend + volume of new releases means that it should get another big TC cut.
JIGSAW | 3.4m (-48%) | Since Saw II, no film in the franchise has seen a sub 50% drop in week 3 & the last two installments saw 60%+ drops.
ONLY THE BRAVE | 1.3m (-32%) | It's in an even worse position than TF, with a sub 1K pta last weekend & a much higher bar to clear.
IT | 0.6m (-40%) | Died post Halloween & don't see any reason why it won't continue this weekend. Look for it to get another big TC cut with its sub 1K pta.
SUBURBICON | 0.6m (-49%) | Should fall of the face of the earth in week 3 after a $579 pta in week 2. Won't be shocked if it loses 60%+ of its theaters.Nov 8, 2017, 8:36am PSTEdited
Wonderstruck also goes wide this weekend which is another reason not to play V/A. Its made its money.Nov 8, 2017, 8:50am PSTEdited
Oh! Hey CCR, glad to see you.Nov 8, 2017, 8:50am PST
I'm surprised It is this low on your board. The big cut was this past weekend. Probably has a better chance than worst contenderNov 8, 2017, 9:24am PST
Interesting comping OtB to Saw II ?Nov 8, 2017, 9:40am PST
@sulli Lol! CorrectedNov 8, 2017, 9:41am PST
Was beginning to miss you CCR. My BB is 90k at the moment, with only one popping over 100k.
I have pretty much the same top 3, but not the first time that BR pops up on top. :-(
I do wonder about Jigsaw. Its 60% drop was higher than I had expected and it seems to have the closest demo in comparison with Thor, so why wouldn't it benefit from a rebound as well. I can get the other Saw movies, but most of them are quite old and I don't know if they faced a +100M behemoth in their second week.
Guess I'll have to figure out how front-loaded they usually are.
I have DH2 and MOTOE closer together. And I also wonder the impact of MOTOE on BR2049 performance. My guess is they have the same target demo.Nov 8, 2017, 9:41am PSTEdited
@Furiosa I over did it by putting It in the bottom category, mid tier was more appropriate probably. But I don't see how it keeps most of its theaters with its sub 1K pta, since both Jigsaw & HDD had higher pta's. Actually expecting another 50% ish TC drop.
@Fourth Wall Jigsaw actually dropped less on its second weekend than the past two films & I don't actually think its audience is anything close to Thor & thus I wouldn't expect a rebound
Movie | Week 2 drop | Week 3 drop
Saw VI | -62.7% | -61.4%
Saw 3D | -65.7% | -63%
Jigsaw | -60.6% | ?Nov 8, 2017, 10:00am PSTEdited
Hmmm...i'll have to have closer look on those FSS splits for each.
I agree that on first sight Jigsaw and Thor have a different audience (although i think "everyone" wants to see Thor) but purely based on turnout in terms of old/young and male/female Thor and Jigsaw are very close. But of course...could be different audience in same demographic.Nov 8, 2017, 11:41am PST
Looks good CCR. Thanks for your hard work every week! Just wanted to mention that Veterans Day is on Saturday, not Friday. Also, I read in the Deadline article that schools would be off Friday because of Veterans Day. Does anyone have kids who are off Friday? My kids have school.Nov 8, 2017, 12:26pm PST