Thursday Fandango Check - Fall Week 10

@phils_phun_phlicks · Phil's Phun Phlicks!
Nov 2, 2017, 9:42am PDT

Ok, time to see how showtimes are shaping up for the Nielsen Top 40+1 markets. Data table is below...

And now, below, I present the FSS gross/show that you'll need to expect to in order for a movie to win the bonus. I get a lot of questions how I derive this, so here's a quick primer on how I calc this...

  • Total showtimes are set equal to [Shows/Theater] observed in the top 40+1 multiplied by the total number of theaters showing found on BOMojo and then slightly reduced to account for the fact that many theaters in the top 40+1 have far more screens than theaters in smaller areas. This factor ranges from 70%-98% and depends on the shows/theater.
  • If the theater count is known at the time of this writing, I use that theater count as the national number. If not, I take the observed theater change in the top 40+1 data and apply it to the national number with some adjustment based on how the Top 40+1 week over week dropped compared to the national drop. If the theater count is not known and it's a platform release expanding, I assume the Top 40+1 represents 40% of the total locations (based off past observation).
  • BO Receipts are set equal to CCR's Bonus Bar unless new information necessitates a change.
  • For new releases with Thursday previews, I am now using a sampling of a few markets to see how many Thursday shows there are relative to the Top 40+1 counts, and then multiplying the total shows by that factor. For historicals, I have for now used a proxy of 10% as I continue to refine this methodology.

Bonus Bar will remain at $100k.

Movie | Gross/show | Change from LW
Thor: Ragnarok FRI | $816/show |DEBUT
Thor: Ragnarok SAT | $981/show |DEBUT
Thor: Ragnarok SUN | $664/show |DEBUT
A Bad Moms' Christmas | $291/show |DEBUT
Jigsaw | $156/show |-41.2%
Boo 2! | $152/show |-40.6%
Geostorm | $90/show |-31.0%
Happy Death Day | $85/show |-18.4%
Blade Runner 2049 | $183/show |7.4%
Thank You For Your Service | $86/show |-32.8%
Only the Brave | $159/show |43.6%
The Foreigner | $139/show |17.2%
It | $127/show |55.2%
Suburbicon | $82/show |-16.8%
Victoria & Abdul | $165/show |30.0%

  • 149k shows for Thor: Ragnarok, which is about 3k more than Spider-Man: Homecoming, but far behind the typical 190k you see for the tentpole May MCU releases. The total $/show for the weekend works out to $820/show, which is a bit higher than the other two MCU releases this year (Spidey opened with $804; Guardians $773). A surprisingly good comp for volume: IT! It grossed $832/show in 148k showings. So, if you think Thor can hit IT levels, you got a BP shot with one of the days.
  • 69k shows for A Bad Moms Christmas puts it about 4k ahead of Office Christmas Party's OW last year and 6k ahead of the original. Speaking of, the original managed $376/show, but BMXmas will have already burned off two days of demand. BMXmas will need to beat Office Xmas by a good margin ($256/show) to take the bonus.
  • Suburbicon looks to be a week 2 split
  • Looks like lights out for Blade Runner, Only the Brave, The Foreigner, and IT, all which lose around 50% of their showings.

2 Replies

  • Reply #1

    That makes Boo! and TYFYS look like the only viable holdovers, and I'm skeptical on Boo!

    @honest_ray · Honest Ray's Cinematorium and Buffeteria
    Nov 2, 2017, 9:45am PDT
  • Reply #2

    Filler is going to be terrible...

    @realfakefilms · Real Fake Films: Octosplit △
    Nov 2, 2017, 9:46am PDT
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