Fall 17 Bonus Bar & Contenders
Greetings FMLers, this is a transmission from the machine's secret servers. CCR is out finding new ways to subjugate biological opposition to Skynet. Therefore, I have been called into service to provide this essential information. CCR should be back in action next week.
Bonus Bar is currently set at $100K. This feels like a decent cutoff point at the moment and will not be surprised at all if the bar gets raised later in the week.
For easy visuals here is the analyzer set at $100K: http://analyzer.fmlnerd.com/lineups/?ests=47900000,44300000,30000000,20100000,7100000,4600000,2700000,2600000,2300000,2200000,2100000,2000000,1800000,1600000,1400000
Top BP Contenders
Thor: SUN | $30M (New) | Last LRF at $109M, with great reviews along the way. This film opened last week Internationally to the tune of $107.6M. Hitting the final LRF doesn't seem like a big hurdle and also will not be surprised if the prediction exceeds the current LRF. The question to ask is, "How frontloaded will this be?" If you believe this to be more on the frontloaded side then Sunday may not be appealing to you. However, consider the good reviews and positive WOM that will be associated with this which generally translates into having better legs throughout the weekend.
Thor: SAT | $44.3M (New) | Similar argument as Sunday, but if you believe that the Sat to Sun drop will be enough to keep Sunday out of contention then this is the day that may emerge ahead of the pack. Gauging the split will be one of the essentials for success this week.
Thank You for Your Service | $2.2M (-42.36%) | This should hold onto its theaters and screens going into its second week. This feels like a contender from the standpoint that the demo skews a little older and the genre battle with Thor isn't one to worry about too much. The drop requirement isn't bad at all and had a PTA of $1859 last week which is a good position to be in against similar competition.
Upper Mid Tier
Thor: FRI | $47.9M (New) | This will have the Thursday preview added to this day and if you feel Thor will be frontloaded enough then Friday emerges as the day to play. The pricing for the days makes all of them tempting so this will end up being a gut call.
Only the Brave | $2.1M (-40%) | Similar to TYfYS, but the TC loss, lower PTA, and similar genre bring this one category lower in my perspective. This should still have very good value and can cross the bar. The reviews for this film have been very positive which gives the ability for a strong hold to happen due to positive WOM. The question regarding this will be "How many theaters does it lose?" It also has the potential to split screens this week so those will be essential factors in regard to this film.
A Bad Moms Christmas | $20.1M (New) | Last LRF at $17.5M. This one opens this Wednesday and has the ability to break past its LRF. We will have some information on this going into the weekend which hopefully can be interpreted properly prior to lock. Things to consider in favor of this: it is tracking very well at the moment and is currently third on movietickets, the first film did very well and provided solid WOM, and no real competition against it. Things to consider to be cautious: Christmas theme the week after Halloween seems a little too soon, the final LRF was lowered from the previous week, and will the Wednesday release hurt or help it this weekend? Some may argue this could be either higher or lower in tier.
The Foreigner | $2M (-41.9%) | Last year The Accountant had a very solid hold and TF almost snagged BP this last week. Should be in for a decent hold this week, but will it be enough? TC will be important here, but if this doesn't split it could sneak under the radar and be a contender.
Tyler Perry's Boo2 | $4.6M (-54.24%) | This could easily be up a tier if you believe that it holds well since it should be relatively unaffected by Thor. In my opinion, Bad Moms would be a stronger point of competition. However, shout out to the Four Quadrants by Fourth Wall, the demo for Boo2 suggests a strong church crowd association and that means Bad Moms may not be as strong of a competitor against Boo2. Several unknown factors still associated here, but it is a horror/thriller/comedy after Halloween week. The comedy factor will give this a better hold than a pure horror or thriller.
It | $1.8M (-28.09%) | This movie is in a class all by itself. Quite frankly, who knows what this movie will do? The reason it is not in a higher tier is the post Halloween horror drop should influence this enough to not warrant a higher position. Will It defy the odds once again? That is up to you.
Blade Runner 2049 | $2.3M (44.13%) | This movie was an early favorite for me as BP last week. However, BR2049 has a bad streak of letting down those that run with it and this week shouldn't be too different. This still has a shot though and can't be outright ruled out. It had a PTA of $1,701 last week and depending on how many screens it holds it still has a shot. Gauging the drop and the competition from Thor will be important before ruling this out.
Geostorm | $2.7M (-54.26%) | This had a drop of -56.9% the week it lost IMAX and premium screens. The TC loss will be a factor to determine if this will be in the running this week. I am expecting decent value, but not enough to cross the threshold at this point.
Victoria & Abdul | $1.4M (-14.7%) | This hold is too much to ask unless this gets a TC bump. Don't see this happening at this time.
Jigsaw | $7.1M (-57.33%) | This should keep the same TC, but don't let that fool you. This will lose premium screens across the board to Thor and it is a horror movie after Halloween. Expect a steep drop for this one.
Happy Death Day | $2.6M (-48.8%) | Same as Jigsaw above except I am also expecting it to be losing theaters.
Suburbicon | $1.6M (-43.66%) | This appears to be splitting screens in its second week. Not expecting this to hold well at all.
Feel free to discuss if you agree or disagree with anything along the way. Best of luck to everyone this week!Oct 31, 2017, 3:51pm PDTEdited
It seems we had similar thoughts near the top, I had a different movie in the top tier but it's something to think on.Oct 31, 2017, 3:52pm PDT
Looks great @HH!
My bar is higher but it looks like, at the very least, my top tier is the same as yours.
I felt the same about TYFYS, comping it in between ML and OTBOct 31, 2017, 3:53pm PDT
Great stuff HH! I definitely agree with your $100k bonus bar, and most of the positions. Bad Moms potentially could reach into the top tier (especially if Thor doesn't reach the dazzling heights), but we'll have to wait for tomorrow's numbers before we know.
The only film I really disagree with here is Boo2, but this one is really going to be a gut call. Mostly what I like about Boo2 is the pricing and the fact that it's not going to lose too many theaters. On the other hand, you bring up a good point about Bad Moms competition. Maybe we'll get a sense of that from the Wednesday dailies.
Also I think IT is in the WP tier personally given that it's past Halloween and ready to lose 1000+ theaters, but this movie keeps kicking me just when I think its run is done.Oct 31, 2017, 4:01pm PDT
@ Circle - Would definitely be curious to hear which film that may be. If you want to keep that card close to the chest then I completely understand.
@ Penny - Thanks!
In terms of the bar going up, that wouldn't surprise me either. My initial gut call was at $100K.
@ BD - Thanks!
I put It up a tier because it is It and has defied horror comps to date. Otherwise I completely agree there. In terms of Boo2, I can see a case for it being up a tier but not feeling that at the moment. The final TC for it will help gauge how it plays out this weekend.Oct 31, 2017, 4:09pm PDT
I agree it's close, but I think Sat is probably the worst value of the three days. It's pricing is so close to Friday. Where as Sun is priced for the three play.
I have Bad Moms as TBD, agreed we're going to have a ton of data ahead of time. Boo seems like nice filler at least, I think it bounces back a bit against Jigsaw (though hurt a bit by Thor). Geostorm is a fun little mystery.
Either way a lot of interesting possibilities. Does a huge Thursday mean a Friday play or three Sun? There's a lot of money on the table, but I think a lot of different get there. Absent further info, I think one of the Thor days takes BP. Great work HH.Oct 31, 2017, 4:28pm PDT
There's one I completely disagree with. Actually two that should be swapped. I'm in full confidence the daily truthers will ferret it out by the end of the week but I'm going to sit on it for now (as I'm sure many other non-commenters are already on it)Oct 31, 2017, 4:35pm PDT
@Real - I think a huge Thursday will deter a lot of us 2xFri IT players. :)
I'm still trying to find a good comp for Thor. The ones I've been looking at either feel too low ($85m OW) or too high ($130m+) - the closest comp (but I'm still unsure about it) would be SM:HC but even then it feels too high for Thor.
I'm fairly confident in my splits based on other F/S/S superhero movies.Oct 31, 2017, 4:36pm PDT
I'd say SAT Thor is the runaway favorite at $443M...Oct 31, 2017, 5:33pm PDT
The analyzed spitting out a 7 movie PC. Man that is beautiful.Oct 31, 2017, 7:08pm PDT