Thursday Fandango Check - Fall Week 8

@phils_phun_phlicks · Phil's Phun Phlicks!
Oct 19, 2017, 9:43am PDT

Ok, time to see how showtimes are shaping up for the Nielsen Top 40+1 markets. Data table is below...

And now, below, I present the FSS gross/show that you'll need to expect to in order for a movie to win the bonus. I get a lot of questions how I derive this, so here's a quick primer on how I calc this...

  • Total showtimes are set equal to [Shows/Theater] observed in the top 40+1 multiplied by the total number of theaters showing found on BOMojo and then slightly reduced to account for the fact that many theaters in the top 40+1 have far more screens than theaters in smaller areas. This factor ranges from 70%-98% and depends on the shows/theater.
  • If the theater count is known at the time of this writing, I use that theater count as the national number. If not, I take the observed theater change in the top 40+1 data and apply it to the national number with some adjustment based on how the Top 40+1 week over week dropped compared to the national drop. If the theater count is not known and it's a platform release expanding, I assume the Top 40+1 represents 40% of the total locations (based off past observation).
  • BO Receipts are set equal to CCR's Bonus Bar unless new information necessitates a change.
  • For new releases with Thursday previews, I am now using a sampling of a few markets to see how many Thursday shows there are relative to the Top 40+1 counts, and then multiplying the total shows by that factor. For historicals, I have for now used a proxy of 10% as I continue to refine this methodology.

I'll be leaving the Bonus Bar at $70k.

Movie | Gross/show | Change from LW
Boo 2! | $607/show |DEBUT
Happy Death Day | $287/show |-36.7%
Only the Brave | $371/show |DEBUT
Geostorm | $245/show |DEBUT
The Snowman | $437/show |DEBUT
Blade Runner 2049 | $195/show |-1.9%
The Foreigner | $220/show |-36.5%
It | $90/show |-8.8%
Same Kind of Different As Me | $192/show |DEBUT
American Made | $127/show |-13.6%
The Mountain Between Us | $125/show |-7.4%
Kingsman 2 | $167/show |20.0%
LEGO Ninjago | $138/show |8.6%
My Little Pony | $135/show |10.8%
Victoria & Abdul | $184/show |-25.6%

  • 47k shows for Boo 2 is about 4k more than Boo 1. Boo 1 grossed $650/show its OW... so you've learned nothing you already didn't know about Boo 2 today.
  • 38k shows for Only the Brave is about 7k fewer than both Detroit back in August and Hacksaw Ridge around this time last year. HR grossed $352/show last year, so OtB needs to beat that by a little bit to compete for the bonus.
  • 53k shows for Geostorm is about exactly what Underworld: Blood Wars received back in January. Oddly enough, U:BW also did not preview on Thursdays and grossed $257/show, so Geo just needs to be about what U:BW was to take the bonus.
  • 27k shows for The Snowman is about what Megan Leavey got back in June when it opened. 20k-30k shows is an odd opening number to say the least, and the highest $/show for a movie opening in the range in my data is Florence Foster Jenkins, which grossed $277/show.
  • 19k shows for Same Kind of Different as Me is about 2k more than The Case for Christ in its April OW. CfC grossed $226/show then, so SKoDaM will need to at least get around 85-90% of that number to contend for the bonus.
  • Shocker - BR2049 lost 40% of its shows. That said, it remains about 4 shows/theater, so it's still getting a full screen.
  • The movies that look like they've moved to a split are TMBU, K2, and Pony. Nothing too surprising here either.
  • V&A not adding or losing a significant number of theaters here.

14 Replies

  • Reply #1

    Yuck all around

    @ccr · CCR
    Oct 19, 2017, 9:48am PDT
  • Reply #2

    Guess i ll just play two Boos, filler and a blank.

    @fourthwall · Fourth Wall
    Oct 19, 2017, 9:53am PDT
  • Reply #3

    Was really hoping to get some clarity here. Instead you see BR getting hit really hard in showings, Geo with more screen time than Boo2, and all the other middle crap giving little to no separation. Thanks week 8!

    @blinkh87 · Blinkh87△
    Oct 19, 2017, 9:54am PDT
  • Reply #4

    @Blink The Geostorm having more showings that Boo! thing is caused by the difference in TCs.

    If you look at the showings per theater, Boo! is clearly dominating there getting 7.5 showtimes per day per theater vs. 6.1 for Geostorm.

    Also, movies like Boo! tend to gross much more per showing that a normal movie. Hence the high pta's.

    @ccr · CCR
    Oct 19, 2017, 9:59am PDTEdited
  • Reply #5

    Definitely. I was more hoping BR would hold more of the IMAX and make life a little easier. Maybe it would point more towards geo being scaled back flop style. I wanted it to be made easy! Lol either way I really enjoy a week like his where a lot of different lineups are in play. Makes the research way more fun!

    @blinkh87 · Blinkh87△
    Oct 19, 2017, 10:01am PDT
  • Reply #6

    Well, bye bye Blade Runner. I like The Foreigner quite a bit at those numbers.

    @honest_ray · Honest Ray's Cinematorium and Buffeteria
    Oct 19, 2017, 11:10am PDT
  • Reply #7

    BR may not be a front runner, but it's still not dropping more than 50% unless it dies today

    @furiosa · Furiosa
    Oct 19, 2017, 11:12am PDT
  • Reply #8

    I've never really understood this, but let me try:

    Boo - good
    OTB - bad
    Geostorm - good
    Snowman - bad
    SKODAM - ok
    BR2049 - really bad
    TMBU, K2, Pony - bad
    V&A - bad

    @citizenbane · Shruggs' Plaything
    Oct 19, 2017, 11:19am PDT
  • Reply #9

    V&A doesn't look too bad at those numbers.

    @honest_ray · Honest Ray's Cinematorium and Buffeteria
    Oct 19, 2017, 11:24am PDT
  • Reply #10

    @Bane yikes, that's all I'll say

    @furiosa · Furiosa
    Oct 19, 2017, 11:24am PDT
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