Fall17 Week 8 Bonus Bar & Contenders
Bonus bar set at 70K, which may end up a bit low, but I'm anticipating that with 5 new wide releases in the market, we'll see some big TC/volume adjustments. Things are too tight for the moment, so only divided into 3 big tiers.
TOP BP CONTENDERS
GEOSTORM | 13m (New) | Last LRF at $12m, up from $11m. Improving LRF is a good sign. Solid social media numbers: Top 5 in FB liked & top 10 in twits on ProBO, 11K+ WTS ratings in RT. Appears to be getting IMAX screens. Gerard Butler has a solid track record with similar films & this type of films have usually been review proof. But the lack of Thursday previews is a giant red flag & speaks to the nonexistent pre-sales.
SAME KIND OF DIFFERENT AS ME | 3.7m (New) | Last LRF at $3.75m, down from $4m. Only needs to reach its LRF to contend. TC is on the low end of the typical Pure Flix range. Woodlawn's/Do You Believe? 2,600-2,700 pta range won't be enough, so it needs to end up around TCFC to be a strong contender. Low sample, but TCFC had 50% more RT WTS ratings at the same point. Strong cast with a lot of pretty well-known names.
AMERICAN MADE | 3.5m (-36%) | In a very similar situation to K2, the difference is that last weekend's low drop was a bit masked by the fact that it actually increased its TC. Possible Post-Foreigner rebound.
KINGSMAN: THE GOLDEN CIRCLE | 3.3m (-39%) | Just needs to repeat its last weekend to enter contention. However, there's a ton of competition entering the market & I do expect a larger TC drop than last week.
VICTORIA AND ABDUL | 2.2m (-28%) | Was priced last week for a huge expansion that never came, but it still had a great pta hold. Expecting another mid-tier expansion (150-200 theaters), anything bigger & it would possibly end up as the BP front-runner.
UPPER MID TIER
ONLY THE BRAVE | 14.1m (New) | Last LRF at $13m, down from $14m. Great reviews & cast. Getting IMAX screens. Seems to be getting lost in the shuffle. Possibly a too close to home theme that may scare away a part of the audience. Low TC is a red flag. 3K WTS ratings seems low.
BLADE RUNNER 2049 | 9m (-42%) | Solid week 2 hold when taking into account the OW huge Thursday %, but a bit disappointing when looking at the daily numbers. Only dropped 41% Sat/Sat. Looks likely to lose a ton of volume, but should keep a good part of its TC when looking at its pta. Solid reviews/WoM should carry it to lower drops going forward.
IT | 4m (-34%) | Should see a pretty sizable post HDD rebound, at the same time, it got a huge Friday the 13th bump as well so those two should sort of offset. Will probably see its first 500+ TC drop.
THE MOUNTAIN BETWEEN US | 3.4m (-40%) | Disappointing week 2 hold. Should keep the older women market mostly for itself. Looking at a sizable week 3 TC loss. Lots of incoming PG-13 indirect competition.
THE LEGO NINJAGO MOVIE | 2.9m (-32%) | Had the stage set last weekend for a BP run (Kept most of its TC, no competition) & again disappointed. Expecting a big TC cut this weekend. Storks did have a solid weekend vs. Madea last year, so we'll have to keep an eye on the daily numbers, but at this point, I'm starting to think that a "break-out" will never come.
LOWER MID TIER / WP CONTENDERS
BOO 2! A MADEA HALLOWEEN | 28.8m (New) | Last LRF at $22m, down from $23.5m. Needs to surpass the previous film to enter contention, which seems unlikely given how the LRF has behaved. Expect it to be slightly more front-loaded than the original.
THE SNOWMAN | 11.7m (New) | Last LRF at $11.5m, no change. Reviews are terrible, which is usually the deathbed for a movie like this. Does have a built in audience given that it's based on a pretty popular book & only needs to reach its LRF to end up around the bar. Big question is whether the TC is going to end up around 1,800 like BoMo calls or the 2,800 that ProBo estimated for its LRF.
HAPPY DEATH DAY | 14.1m (-46%) | Decent cinemascore for a horror film. Gets a ton of indirect PG-13 competition. Big Friday the 13th bump which won't be repeated. Too early for a Halloween bump like the Ouija films. The Visit probably continues to be the best comp.
THE FOREIGNER | 7.4m (-44%) | None of the previous R rated action films released this fall season has approached a sub 45% drop & given the amount of new releases, it doesn't seem like it should be the first. It does have an A- Cinemascore & 80% liked it in RT, so I won't totally discount it given that The Accountant pulled a 44% second week drop on a similar weekend last year.
MY LITTLE PONY: THE MOVIE | 2.5m (-40%) | Hard to determine whether the week 2 drop was caused mainly because of the bronies or due to the overall fact that it's based on a popular TV show. I'm expecting a pretty sizable TC cut given the low pta & Lionsgate history with similar releases, but could move it up a tier or even two if it keeps most of its TC.Oct 17, 2017, 4:31pm PDT
Give me all the Geostorm; 5 x GEO & 2 MLP + Blank = I don't have anything to lose anyway ?Oct 17, 2017, 5:44pm PDT
@Kevboats Geostorm is a total gut call with a fairly low floor, but I could totally understand why someone could get convinced by it.
If this two can clear $10m:Oct 17, 2017, 6:51pm PDT
CCR love that your comps are random bad movies. Which is kind of where I am on Geostorm.
Weather machine...Oct 17, 2017, 7:10pm PDT
No Thursday previews? Son of a *****.Oct 17, 2017, 7:27pm PDT
Inb4 Geostorm has great reviews and blows past bar.Oct 17, 2017, 8:04pm PDT
No Thursday previews are indeed a bit of a red flag, but I think we can all see that Geostorm is going to be a crappy movie. So this may actually be a good thing considering the alternative is a Snowman scenario.
Other than that, I came to similar conclusions on the new releases. I am not like that WTS for Only the Brave for instance. And Geostorm seems to be the only one to tick all the boxes (FB, WTS, IMDB, tv ads,...). Well, the other one is The Snowman (if it has 2800 TC) but that 24% RT is a death sentence.Oct 18, 2017, 12:17am PDT
The Snowman TC has been updated to 1,813, that's a pretty specific number, so I don't think it's a typo. I think that's the correct TC, and it's not coming close to it's LRF.Oct 18, 2017, 2:45am PDT
That settles it then. Unless the ProBo 2800 was a typo and the LRF was with 1800 tc in mind. Unlikely though.Oct 18, 2017, 3:12am PDT
I hadn't realized how commonly people thought Gerard Butler's name was Gerald... But it's an R, not an L. GeraRd.Oct 18, 2017, 5:35am PDT