Thursday Fandango Check - Fall Week 1

@phils_phun_phlicks · Phil's Phun Phlicks!
Aug 31, 2017, 9:23am PDT

Ok, time to see how showtimes are shaping up for the Nielsen Top 40+1 markets. Data table is below...

And now, below, I present the FSS gross/show that you'll need to expect to in order for a movie to win the bonus. I get a lot of questions how I derive this, so here's a quick primer on how I calc this...

  • Total showtimes are set equal to [Shows/Theater] observed in the top 40+1 multiplied by the total number of theaters showing found on BOMojo and then slightly reduced to account for the fact that many theaters in the top 40+1 have far more screens than theaters in smaller areas. This factor ranges from 70%-98% and depends on the shows/theater.
  • If the theater count is known at the time of this writing, I use that theater count as the national number. If not, I take the observed theater change in the top 40+1 data and apply it to the national number with some adjustment based on how the Top 40+1 week over week dropped compared to the national drop. If the theater count is not known and it's a platform release expanding, I assume the Top 40+1 represents 40% of the total locations (based off past observation).
  • BO Receipts are set equal to CCR's Bonus Bar unless new information necessitates a change.
  • For new releases, Thursday nights are ignored since not all locations show Thursday previews. That means I have to make a bit of a guess at how much of the take we can expect from Thursday night for new movies, and then I exclude it. For the sake of transparency, I'll start including my Thursday night gross guess as well.

I'll be leaving the Bonus Bar at $45k.

The Hitman's Bodyguard | $191/show |-2.6%
Annabelle: Creation | $117/show |-23.7%
Leap! | $132/show |6.8%
Wind River | $127/show |DEBUT
Logan Lucky | $129/show |16.1%
Dunkirk | $124/show |8.0%
Hazlo Con Hombre | $551/show |DEBUT
Spider-Man: Homecoming | $146/show |17.6%
The Emoji Movie | $136/show |27.8%
The Nut Job 2 | $105/show |29.0%
Girls Trip | $138/show |17.4%
Tulip Fever | $252/show |DEBUT
Despicable Me 3 | $98/show |DEBUT
Birth of the Dragon | $73/show |-33.3%
Wonder Woman | $91/show |-0.2%

  • 7600 shows for Hazlo Con Hombre is about 5 shows/theater for Pantellion and par for the course there. No Manches Frida isn't availabe as a comp as it wasn't on the FML slate last Labor Day. Probably the best comp out there is Lowriders, which grossed $489/show when it won BP on the weekend of 5/12.
  • 11.2k shows for Tulip Fever is about what Wind River had when it was in FML two weeks ago. WR made $272/show that weekend, so TF needs to perform similarly to compete.
  • With Wind River not even topping Leap in the total number of theaters in the Top 40+1, I'll estimate its TC at 2600. 2400-2800 seems like the realistic range, and I'd probably take the lower end of that.
  • Looking through each MSA, Houston is showing all movies losing about 50% of their TC locally, so it seems that about half the city's theaters are dark this weekend. Nothing noticable in San Antonio or Dallas though.

4 Replies

  • Reply #1

    For some reason link didnt work:

    Good stuff.

    @fourthwall · Fourth Wall
    Aug 31, 2017, 9:37am PDT
  • Reply #2

    Completely forgot that DM3 & WR weren't in the slate last week. Was looking forward at seeing their changes vs. last week.

    @ccr · CCR
    Aug 31, 2017, 10:10am PDT
  • Reply #3

    That is a little frustrating with returning movies not showing up.

    We've had no Harvey related issues in Dallas as far as the movie business is concerned.

    @seanshank_redemption · Sean of the Deadpool ◬
    Aug 31, 2017, 10:53am PDT
  • Reply #4

    Yeah and unless i did something wrong you cant go back in time using Gracenote.

    @fourthwall · Fourth Wall
    Aug 31, 2017, 11:50am PDTEdited
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