Fall Week 1 Bonus Bar & Contenders
Bonus Bar is set at 45K, comparing the 4 day vs. the 3 day from the previous weekend. Good luck figuring this week given all the factors: measuring how much did the fight & hurricane impact last weekend's BO, how will the latter impact this weekend, the labor day bump, the lack of competition with no wide releases. Take my tiers with a bit of a grain of salt, tried my best to separate the contenders from the pretenders, but it's hard when my initial numbers have 12 out the 15 movies within 5K, I could see a lot of movies moving up or down after daily numbers & TC come out (We could see some surprise expansions). This week mostly reminds me of Awards week 10 (SB weekend) where 9 movies finished within 5K of the BP, including 5 within less than 1K.
TOP BP CONTENDERS
WIND RIVER | 5.7m (23%) | Really solid pta hold last week given the large expansion & the factors mentioned above. Could possibly expand further. Hell or High Water had an awesome performance last year, although that was a bit aided by a 43% TC increase.
HAZLO COMO HOMBRE | 4.2m (New) | If you use No Manches Frida as a template (especially given that both had very similar Mexican OW box office numbers) this one seems like the most likely BP. However a couple of factors make me a bit dubious. Weather forecasters have mentioned that hurricane Harvey should continue to affect Texas through-out Friday at least & given that close to 20% of the latino's in the US live there, it could really impact the OW. The second thing is the R rating, none of the previous Pantelion Labor Day releases carried that rating & it could limit of people that are interested in the film given the family centric holiday.
SPIDER-MAN: HOMECOMING | 3.6m (26%) | Marvel films tend to have pretty big increases on this weekend given their family appeal. Ant-Man increased 22% two years ago & GotG 33% in 2014.
UPPER MID TIER
ANNABELLE: CREATION | 6.9m (-10%) | Last chance to see it before It comes out next week. Not a lot of options for teens out there. Will keep almost all of its theaters. Had one of the biggest fight related impacts. Solid Sun to Mon hold. Sinister 2 only dropped 10% a couple of years ago.
BIRTH OF THE DRAGON | 2.1m (-22%) | The movie with probably the widest range of outcomes at this point. Daily numbers & Fandango check (candidate to split screens) should make it clear by Friday. Pretty big impact from the fight last week. Low bar to clear given that most movies released the weekend before Labor Day usually see week 2 drops in the 20%-25% range (Don't Breathe, Mechanic: Resurrection, If I Stay, The Mortal Instruments, The World's End, Hit & Run, etc) regardless of reviews / reception.
THE HITMAN'S BODYGUARD | 11.3m (10%) | Big chance it ends up as you anchor by default given that it's the only movie priced above 200. Saw a pretty big impact from the fight. Will keep all of its volume. War Dogs only dropped 13% last year despite losing 400 theaters.
LEAP! | 6m (27%) | Animated movies that open low usually don't drop much in week 2 as we saw with the NJ2 near BP a couple of weeks ago. Add the boost family movies usually get from this holiday awell as the bigger weekend increases with most kids returning to school.
LOGAN LUCKY | 5.2m (22%) | Priced way higher than HB despite similar weekend outlooks. Unlikely to end up as a contender.
DUNKIRK | 4.8m (21%) | Fight impact, should keep most of its screens, Inception increased 20% on this weekend. Has potential to move up a tier or two with a solid TC / good daily numbers.
THE EMOJI MOVIE | 3.3m (31%) | Family movie boost with a huge projected Monday. Post Leap rebound. Should keep most of its theaters. Beware of a Cars 3 expansion.
GIRLS TRIP | 2.9m (22%) | Priced pretty aggressively given that Bad Moms only managed to increase 4% last year & this one markets to a pretty similar demographic. More likely that I move it down a tier than up unless it expands.
DESPICABLE ME 3 | 2.3m (31%) | See Emoji, but much lower floor given the possibility that it loses some of the theaters it expanded to last weekend.
THE NUT JOB 2: NUTTY BY NATURE | 3m (28%) | See Emoji
TULIP FEVER | 2.8m (New) | Multiple release date delays (originally set to be released more than a year ago), low TC & no reviews released yet points at a WP front-runner. The last Weinstein film to be released with a similar backstory was Jane Got a Gun.
WONDER WOMAN | 2m (18%) | Would move up a tier if it keeps most of its theaters, but that seems extremely unlikely given that it should all of its IMAX screens to Inhumans & Close Encounters.Aug 29, 2017, 1:58pm PDT
Thanks CCR! Interesting stuff.
Personally I have my bonus bar up to $50k, but it seems I'm on an island there from what I've read this week. I realize how ridiculous that makes the holds for some of these films, but something has to make money this weekend, right? Right?? I think something gets there either due to a surprise TC increase or simply because there's no new competition hitting the marketplace.
I like your tiers here for the most part. I think WW is probably better than WP-tier, but if you're right about it losing IMAX screens, that makes me think it won't be a contender this week.
If I were to bet on an animated film this week, it'd probably be DM3. It does feel like the animated space is really, really crowded right now, especially if there's a Cars 3 expansion.Aug 29, 2017, 2:09pm PDTEdited
@Backseat I would like to think that something had to make money, but if last weekend was any indication, it doesn't have to. Especially since there are no wide releases.
As for the tiers, I'm onboard for now, good work as alwaysAug 29, 2017, 2:13pm PDT
My bar was also 50K, wit quite a few movies bunched around 45-46K. Glad to see I was on the right pace.Aug 29, 2017, 2:21pm PDT
@BD Seems like most movies that get end of summer final pushes usually give back most of the TC they gained a week later. That's what made me lower DM3 & WW.
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&view=chart&id=jurassicpark4.htm (The big exception, which is not surprising given its big pta increase)
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=monstersinc2.htmAug 29, 2017, 2:21pm PDT
Love the analysis as always.
I am very wary of HcH. Very little tv marketing compared to No M Frida. And I truly don't see it happening for BoD atm. Falling knife etc. But as you say all eyes on dailies.
My methods don't work that well for holiday weekends but my top 5 is ABC, Leap, Dunkirk, THB and SMHC.
This was ignoring Wind River for the moment as i find that one particularly hard to estimate.Aug 29, 2017, 2:26pm PDT
CCR agreed that films usually give back theaters after the final push, but none of those weekends were quite like this. What is replacing them this week?
I guess we'll know by Thursday, but a couple of surprise expansions and theater count holds would not be shocking.Aug 29, 2017, 2:47pm PDT
@Real Fake I could see that for DM3, but not for WW given that its HD version was released today for home video:
"Wonder Woman returned to IMAX theaters this weekend in one last shot at glory before it debuts on Digital HD on Tuesday"Aug 29, 2017, 2:57pm PDTEdited
Looks like your top 5 and my top 5 are almost identicalAug 29, 2017, 3:50pm PDT
This is probably a stupid question but when a movie becomes available to purchase in digital platforms, as Wonder Woman did today will the money that's made off of those purchases count towards its box office total day to day?Aug 29, 2017, 3:51pm PDT