Awards Week 13 Bonus Bar & Contenders

@ccr · CCR
Feb 22, 2017, 8:25am PST

Final week of the season, many players still in contention (Not me, had a terrible Awards season in every single way), I'll set the final bonus bar at 85K.


TOP BP CONTENDERS


GET OUT | 24.1m (New) | A ton of momentum, great reviews, could attract audiences from multiple demos, only needs to reach its LRF to be the BP favorite. My only question is, does being the 4th horror release (6th if you count RE & UW) in the last couple of months limit its ceiling?
LA LA LAND | 4.3m (-6%) | As many have already noticed, the movies that get a big bump during this weekend are the ones that are expected to win BP / multiple oscars, LLL more than qualifies. TC is going to be very important to determine just how low the drop is going to be.
COLLIDE | 3.3m (New) | Hate to put it in this tier, since it looks like a major bust (One of the movies affected by Relativity's bankruptcy, multiple release date changes, etc.), but it has a pretty good cast (Anthony Hopkins, Ben Kingsley, Nicholas Hoult & Felicity Jones) & only needs to reach its LRF to blow away every other movie in the BP race


UPPER MID TIER (NON GET OUT ANCHOR BATTLE)


THE LEGO BATMAN MOVIE | 22.9m (-30%) | See Lego Movie (But adjust for the VDAY bump)
THE GREAT WALL | 11.3m (-39%) | Big Friday (excluding Thursday) to Saturday hold makes me think that a good hold is coming
FIFTY SHADES DARKER | 10.7m (-47%) | Holding better than the original, surprised many (including me) last week.
JOHN WICK: CHAPTER TWO | 10.5m (-36%) | Similar movies have experienced a "bounce-back" in week 3 after decent drops in week 2


UPPER MID TIER (NON ANCHOR)


HIDDEN FIGURES | 6.4m (-12%) | Not expected to win any oscar's, doubt it gets a big bump this weekend.
A DOG'S PURPOSE | 4.3m (-24%) | See Hotel for Dogs


MID TIER


SPLIT | 4.7m (-35%) | Get Out should be the toughest competition it has faced so far
LION | 4.3m (1%) | See HF
A CURE FOR WELLNESS | 2m (-53%) | Too much competition in the horror genre, but pricing team accounted for that, so don't think it ends up as the WP

WP CONTENDERS


FIST FIGHT | 7.5m (-39%) | Bad reviews & WoM, ended up way below projections, 60%+ drop is not out of play
ROCK DOG | 4.3m (New) | See Ari's bold prediction
FENCES | 1.1m (32%) | Will definitely reevaluate if it gets a big TC increase, but for now I don't think that happens.

12 Replies

  • Reply #1

    Thank you CCR for making me feel like I don't need a cure for my FML wellness!!! I feel like Collide's cast alone gets it to $4M! I'd be banging the drum for this if there wasn't another movie I felt more strongly about this weekend! But I definitely think it gets to top 3 value and the best filler option. That's all I got to say about that.

    @hmg · Hoosier Movie Guy
    Feb 22, 2017, 8:35am PST
  • Reply #2

    CCR - Good breakdown this week. Collide is an interesting one, and I'm not sure anyone here quite knows what to do with it, as evidenced by it being the 2nd lowest played movie, at 11.9%.


    The thing that worries me about it - Is it another Rock The Kasbah? That was a real stinker from Open Road, and that also had a strong cast of Bill Murray, Bruce Willis, Kate Hudson, Zooey Deschanel, Danny McBride.


    Similar theater count too.
    http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=rockthekasbah.htm

    @bswhite · BSwhite: Into The FMLverse!
    Feb 22, 2017, 8:48am PST
  • Reply #3

    I think the other problem with Collide is due to the pricing of the Get Out and Batman anchors. There isn't a good way to maximize on La La either

    @dead_et · Dead ET's Drive-In (R)
    Feb 22, 2017, 8:50am PST
  • Reply #4

    There have been far too many cheaply priced "But it only needs $X to win BP!" movies that never make anywhere close to $X in FML history for me to trust Collide. Movies with stars that are dumped by studios without marketing or promotion can and do underperform even the most modest of expectations.

    @sparty · Sparty
    Feb 22, 2017, 8:50am PST
  • Reply #5

    Pricing is really confusing to me this week. On the one hand, you have a well-reviewed horror film Get Out, which would normally be overpriced. Instead, it could easily exceed its LRF, get $90k+ value and run away with BP. On the other hand, you have a several films that will probably drop 50% or more after the holiday weekend (even compared to the FSS) and aren't even in the conversation. It feels a bit like the pricing team are intentionally making the anchor battle clear, but have priced everything low enough that the battle for the season will be fought in filler. Then on top of that, you've got a 7x 50SD play, and an elusive 8x(!) JW2 play. Maybe I'm reading too much into this.


    I have no idea what to do with Collide. Going to trust the pros on that one.


    I'm a little surprised that Lion wasn't completely priced out of contention, though I doubt it three-peats. It looks like it'll be splitting screens and probably losing some too.


    I think ADP may lose a lot of screens. I think Fences may see another expansion but I doubt it's enough.


    Everything feels topsy turvy.

    @backseatdirecting · BackseatDirecting
    Feb 22, 2017, 8:52am PST
  • Reply #6

    @Sparty I definitely agree on the part that this has a really low floor, but for me the difference with oter similar movies in the past is the way that this one has been priced.


    At 2,000 theaters, which could still climb, it needs a 1,650 pta to reach the bonus bar, which is basically:


    http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=gold.htm
    http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=hitandrun.htm&adjust_yr=2017&p=.htm
    http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=bleedforthis.htm&adjust_yr=2017&p=.htm
    http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=ten2014.htm
    http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=triplenine.htm
    http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=thespacebetweenus.htm (If you adjust for the SB)

    @ccr · CCR
    Feb 22, 2017, 9:01am PSTEdited
  • Reply #7

    You know who has more Facebook friends than Collide? Me.


    http://pro.boxoffice.com/movie/28865/collide


    There's a good shot you have more friends than Collide too.

    @phils_phun_phlicks · Phil's Phun Phlicks!
    Feb 22, 2017, 9:46am PST
  • Reply #8

    The marketing for Collide has picked up as I saw a trailer for it before John Wick 2 and I've seen some ads. Probably won't do that well but it might surprise.

    @anepicmoviereviewer · Anepicmoviereviewer Cineplex (R)
    Feb 22, 2017, 9:48am PST
  • Reply #9

    The concern i have with Collide is, who is target audience?

    @dead_et · Dead ET's Drive-In (R)
    Feb 22, 2017, 9:48am PST
  • Reply #10

    @Dead ET As a PG-13 action/heist movie, it has a pretty wide audience range, but I expect it to mainly attract teens.


    Something like this wouldn't shock me:


    http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=getaway2013.htm


    Adjusting for the holiday, that would mean around 3.9m, which is where Collide's LRF stands.


    This one could also work as a comp:


    http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=paranoia.htm&adjust_yr=2017&p=.htm

    @ccr · CCR
    Feb 22, 2017, 9:57am PSTEdited
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