Awards Week 12 Bonus Bar & Contenders

@ccr · CCR
Feb 14, 2017, 7:41am PST

Another 4 day weekend, have the bonus bar at 90K, one tricky thing this week is going to be analyzing daily's, with VD falling on a Tuesday, the Mon, Tue, Wed numbers are going to be pretty useless / hard to read.


TOP BP CONTENDERS


SPLIT | 8.3m (-13%) | Keeps plugging along with outstanding holds for a horror / thriller. Lost only 36% of its pta last week despite a ton of new competition.
HIDDEN FIGURES | 8.2m (2%) | Another bonkers hold last weekend despite losing a fair deal of its TC (although most on non-top 40 markets). A similar hold this week (Only 12% Fri/Fri pta drop) would make an increase a definite possibility
A DOG'S PURPOSE | 6.7m (-8%) | Great hold last week, long weekends are usually pretty good for family movies, post LB rebound?
SING | 1.6m (-5%) | See ADP, only question mark is the TC
ROGUE ONE: A STAR WARS STORY | 1.4m (-10%) | See Sing


UPPER MID TIER


THE LEGO BATMAN MOVIE | 54.2m (2%) | Increasing over last week is pretty ambitious, but the big Fri to Sat increase & great critic / audience reviews make me think it'll hold well for a while. One big question mark is the fact that 52% of its audience was over 25, how'll that affect its potential?
LA LA LAND | 4.9m (-2%) | Surprised me a bit last weekend, but still continues to lose steam, don't think it has another big push in it until before/after the Oscar's


MID TIER


FIST FIGHT | 30.6m (New) | LRF is not very optimistic on its chances, is the comedy market still underserved despite Lego Batman?
JOHN WICK: CHAPTER TWO | 26.5m (-13%) | Despite high % of OW coming from Thursday, don't think this one falls off a cliff
LION | 4.4m (12%) | Over-priced after its crazy increase LW
RINGS | 4.1m (-28%) | TC/showtimes could see a big hit with yet another horror release in the market


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WP CONTENDERS


THE GREAT WALL | 30.3m (New) | Surprised it didn't get the famous FML "dare" pricing, decreasing LRF is not very promising
FIFTY SHADES DARKER | 30.1m (-36%) | Over 12% of its OW came from Thursday, Saturday was basically flat with Friday. Don't see a way this one has a drop under 50%
A CURE FOR WELLNESS | 15m (New) | Saturated market, another movie with decreasing LRFs
EVERYBODY LOVES SOMEBODY | 3.3m (New) | Think this one ends up closer to Compadres / Ladrones / A la Mala than No Manches Frida

12 Replies

  • Reply #1

    I am getting so tired of HF v Split.

    @anepicmoviereviewer · Anepicmoviereviewer Cineplex (R)
    Feb 14, 2017, 7:42am PST
  • Reply #2

    Nice, high bonus bar. Several films won't make it to 70k, but I think the top tier can make 90. There's clear separation between the haves and have-nots.


    I agree that Sing and R1 very much depend on theater counts. I don't have either that high, but if they keep theaters I'll reconsider.


    I think both LLL and Lion have to stay in the conversation after last week. LLL lost a ton of theaters and still kept plugging away. Lion could potentially see another expansion. They're both longer shots at that bar but are on my radar.


    The new releases were not priced to succeed. We'll see what the pros say but I'm with you, don't trust them.


    Great stuff, thanks CCR!

    @backseatdirecting · BackseatDirecting
    Feb 14, 2017, 8:05am PST
  • Reply #3

    To expand on BDR's point, it does feel as if there were almost two pricing bars this week - one for everything under $100 Bux, and another for the anchors. I could see pricing getting a little gunshy after JW2 (no pun intended) and with two weeks left, doing a bit of pricing to the game and almost forcing the BP into that sub-$100 group.


    I don't think I'm giving away too much to say that I don't have any of the $100+ anchor movies anywhere close to the pricing bar, and I'd have to assume that it's by design.

    @phils_phun_phlicks · Phil's Phun Phlicks!
    Feb 14, 2017, 8:21am PST
  • Reply #4

    i want to take this moment to say what a crazy season this has been. movies like R1 and LLL have been around forever, been significant players in terms of getting considered and getting played, but never won BP. Split and HF are sure-fire FML HoF films. several 4 day weekends. Lots of wrenches got thrown this season and as a great sportsman once said, "if you can dodge a wrench, you can dodge a ball." (in this case the ball signifying FML failure)

    @legitalt1985 · The Legit Alternate 1985
    Feb 14, 2017, 8:37am PST
  • Reply #5

    PPP - Same here, and I think the bar for some of those movies on the bottom just seems so swingy. +/- 150k for R1 could decide the season.

    @protagonist · The Force A-Nathan-s
    Feb 14, 2017, 8:44am PST
  • Reply #6

    Hey CCR, is there an email or something I can reach you at to take to you privately about something

    @fmlsteve · STOVE
    Feb 14, 2017, 8:46am PST
  • Reply #7

    If there's one thing I've learned, it's not to count out silly Ice Cube comedies in Jan.-Feb. But 30 might be pushing it.

    @user4bb7kd · Movie B.O.O.B.s podcast
    Feb 14, 2017, 9:25am PST
  • Reply #8

    Yeah this looks pretty good. I don't think Lion can overperform enough to get into the top tier

    @perfectly_balanced · Perfectly Balanced Cineplexes
    Feb 14, 2017, 9:56am PST
  • Reply #9

    @Phil / @BD I do agree with your comments on both the anchors not really being in contention & that there is a clear separation between the haves & have nots. Think the BP for sure comes from a sub $100 movie.


    TC / showtimes will again be very interesting:


    New releases | How many screens will each movie have is going to be key to whether the holdovers see decent TC decreases or not


    50 Shades | Possibly big showtimes loss


    ADP | Held to a surprising amount of theaters / showtimes, could see a correction this week


    HF / LLL | Both saw decent losses in their TCs last week, but given their pta holds, most of them were of the dead weight variety. Not sure what happens with either


    Sing | PTA last week was pretty terrible (nearly tied RE for the 2nd lowest in the top 15), lots of family movies around, could it lose 40%+ of its theaters? And will that loss prevent it from contending?


    http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=rapunzel.htm


    R1 | PTA wasn't terrible & theaters have a lot of dead weight to shed (SBU, RE, MT, xXx, Sing?). Wouldn't be shocked if it lost less than 30% of its theaters.


    Lion | Possible expansion?

    @ccr · CCR
    Feb 14, 2017, 10:15am PSTEdited
  • Reply #10

    Have it

    @fmlsteve · STOVE
    Feb 14, 2017, 10:17am PST
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