Awards Week 11 Bonus Bar & Contenders
After an outstanding pricing week that saw almost ever movie in BP contention, it appears that we could see a similar thing this week. Set the bonus bar at 130K. Tiers will probably change a ton during the week given the expected TC bloodbath.
TOP BP CONTENDERS
LEGO BATMAN | 103.4m (New) | See Ari's bold prediction
FIFTY SHADES DARKER | 50.6m (New) | Surprised by the pricing team, definitely in contention, be prepared for a huge Thursday / small multiplier
HIDDEN FIGURES | 7.8m (-23%) | Keeps plugging along, award films will probably be the least affected by the new releases
LA LA LAND | 4.8m (-35%) | PTA dropped more than expected last week, seems like it's running out of legs (at least until after the Oscar's), but priced very enticingly.
LION | 2.9m (-24%) | See HF, possible TC cut could drop it a notch
UPPER MID TIER
JOHN WICK: CHAPTER 2 | 26.1m (New) | Seems like 25m is the ceiling for this one, low 20's seem more appropriate for now given the competition (And yes, definitely think that LB will take a decent chunk of its potential audience).
SPLIT | 8.7m (-40%) | Don't think it's BP, but should be a solid value
THE SPACE BETWEEN US | 2.2m (-41%) | Dissapointing OW, but daily changes seem positive for future holds, these kind of movies don't drop a ton
A DOG'S PURPOSE | 6.4m (-39%) | Dropped more than I expected LW, every family movie will be crushed by Lego Batman
RINGS | 6.1m (-53%) | See Woman in Black week 2 (but include the 800K in previews, WiB had none)
ROGUE ONE: A STAR WARS STORY | 1.8m (-38%) | See ADP
SING | 2.5m (-39%) | See KP3 s. Zootopia, Yogi vs. Gnomeo, etc + possible 100m+ opening + include big TC loss
RESIDENT EVIL: THE FINAL CHAPTER | 2.3m (-50%) | John Wick 2 + TC loss
XXX: THE RETURN OF XANDER CAGE | 2m (-50%) | See RE
MONSTER TRUCKS | 1.3m (-40%) | See Sing
Actually it happy they did that with 50 shades. Weekend is a lot more boring without itFeb 7, 2017, 9:19am PST
Agree that LB will crush family movie genre. Might be jumping the analysis here but if there's a sell-out, is it likely families pick another showing of LB or will they see something else? To which, what's that 2nd choice? Guessing showings will be heavy for LBFeb 7, 2017, 9:24am PST
Showings will probably be heavy for LB.Feb 7, 2017, 9:26am PST
@Vandy's 4,000+ projected TC + ton of showings , seems like theaters are expecting a huge huge weekend, don't think that other family movies benefit enough from sell-outs to compensateFeb 7, 2017, 9:28am PST
Love the $130k bonus bar. Even at such a high bar, there are so many contenders (as you laid out here).
I like that you have HF, LLL, and Lion all in the top tier. TC will probably hurt one or more of those, but awards films are the one group that shouldn't be hurt too badly by this week's new releases.
I don't trust JW2 to break out. I agree that it's solid value, and that it probably won't be BP.
Both Split and Space BUS I could see in the top tier if dailies go their way. I'm not sure how the new releases will hit Split. Space BUS very much depends on whether its screens get split.
TC for anything under a $2000 PTA last week (Space BUS excluded) will be a bloodbath.Feb 7, 2017, 9:32am PST
@Backseat Absolutely agree with everything you posted:
- SBU splitting screens is the key to whether it's in contention or not. Important to note that STX has allowed it before & its 1,343 pta is horrible for such a wide release.
- Split definitely has a case, great hold last week despite Rings/SB. Daily numbers will be important. At the end, think that John Wick + LB turn out to be too much competition.
- TC cuts will be brutal: LB is getting 4,000+ theaters & at least a couple of screens in each, 50Shades 3,700+ & 2 screens in some, JW 2,900. That's at the very least 15K screens of incoming movies & probably closer to 18K+.
Feb 7, 2017, 9:44am PST
- LB & 50Shades having such a large volume is one of the reasons, I'm not in love with JW2 potential. Difficult seeing it in more than 1 screen in most theaters.
Love that you have lion as one of your top BP candidates! I feel that a lot of people have it with about a 37% drop when I personally see a drop like what you have at 24%Feb 7, 2017, 9:57am PST
Do you feel that with Valentines on a Tuesday that more people will wait till Monday or Tuesday to see Shades?Feb 7, 2017, 10:04am PST
Thanks for the shoutout! Seems like we're on the same page for the most part, but let's not forget about post-Super Bowl adjustmentsFeb 7, 2017, 10:28am PST
I wish "Yogi vs. Gnomeo Dawn of Justice" were a real movie and not something I made up while reading this.
Great job as always CCR.Feb 7, 2017, 10:43am PST