Awards Week 10 Bonus Bar & Contenders
I've probably never seen a week with pricing this tight. My first pass had 14 of the 15 movies in a $10 bux range. Setting the bar at $48k to better separate between tiers & because one movie always surprises, but I wouldn't be shocked if no movie got there.
TOP BP CONTENDERS
A DOG'S PURPOSE | 12.8m (-30%) | Animal / pet films usually hold really well
THE SPACE BETWEEN US | 6.9m (New) | Bar was set low, STX has done a good job marketing its films, solid TC. The big issue I have with it is that it's a tweener type film, with a hard to define audience.
Sub 2,500 pta is rare for this kind of film, but not unprecedented:
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=thechoice.htm (If you think this is more of a date type movie)
SING | 4.6m (-28%) | Family films are usually the big "winners" during the SB weekend, especially the animated ones
ROGUE ONE: A STAR WARS STORY | 3.5m (-34%) | See: TFA
MOANA | 1.5m (-40%) | TC will be key, was the sing-along a one week thing?
UPPER MID TIER
MONSTER TRUCKS | 2.5m (-39%) | See Sing, Expected TC/Volume loss keeps it down here
THE FOUNDER | 1.8m (-30%) | Can't be discounted given how well it held last week & the decent pta means it probably shouldn't disappear from the map.
SPLIT | 16.1m (-37%) | Amazing hold last week, but Rings will definitely impact it.
HIDDEN FIGURES | 11.3m (-19%) | High 20's, low 30's seems more appropriate (See The Descendants, King's Speech, etc.)
LA LA LAND | 9.9m (-19%) | See HF
RESIDENT EVIL: THE FINAL CHAPTER | 6m (-56%) | SB weekend is not very kind to this type of movie
XXX: THE RETURN OF XANDER CAGE | 4.3m (-50%) | See RE
GOLD | 2m (-43%) | Can it pull a Founder in its second week with a strong hold? I'm betting on no, wouldn't be shocked if Weinstein allows theaters to split screens.
RINGS | 17.4m (New) | Split overperforming took away most of its upside & greatly lowered its floor.
LION | 6.6m (182%) | 6.6m means a 3,300 pta in 2000 theaters. That would mean dropping only 20% of its pta in the SB weekend despite tripling its theaters, don't buy it at all.
I like the top contenders but I'm questioning A Dog's Purpose holding that well.Jan 31, 2017, 8:02am PST
@Anepic The history is there:
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=snowdogs.htmJan 31, 2017, 8:04am PST
Glad to see you feel that way about rings, agree 100%Jan 31, 2017, 8:05am PST
True but I think it could still be hurt by the controversy. And the estimates dropped over the weekend which makes me question it's WOM.Jan 31, 2017, 8:06am PST
We're not still talking about the "controversy" are we. Its gone, if anything it could help the hold because if anybody was shamed into not going opening weekends by the protests now they can goJan 31, 2017, 8:12am PST
It's still a factor I think. Also the pricing is restrictive for anchors.Jan 31, 2017, 8:13am PST
I'm not saying I believe in it but we made way too much of the so called controversy last week and I don't see how it plays at allJan 31, 2017, 8:16am PST
But it does look like it hurt. The opening wasn't in the 20's like it would/could have been. I also haven't seen much good WOM.Jan 31, 2017, 8:18am PST
The 24 hour news cycle has completely moved on from ADP. (And that's a YUGE understatement.) Factor in the controversy if you want, but you're really in an echo chamber if you think anyone outside of this message board and PETA is still thinking about it.Jan 31, 2017, 8:23am PST
Good point. I'm mainly just looking at the reviews and WOM now. That was a minor point.Jan 31, 2017, 8:24am PST