Awards Week 10 Bonus Bar & Contenders

@ccr · CCR
Jan 31, 2017, 7:58am PSTEdited

I've probably never seen a week with pricing this tight. My first pass had 14 of the 15 movies in a $10 bux range. Setting the bar at $48k to better separate between tiers & because one movie always surprises, but I wouldn't be shocked if no movie got there.


TOP BP CONTENDERS


A DOG'S PURPOSE | 12.8m (-30%) | Animal / pet films usually hold really well
THE SPACE BETWEEN US | 6.9m (New) | Bar was set low, STX has done a good job marketing its films, solid TC. The big issue I have with it is that it's a tweener type film, with a hard to define audience.


Sub 2,500 pta is rare for this kind of film, but not unprecedented:
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=vampireacademy.htm
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=amonstercalls.htm
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=cirquedufreak.htm
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=prideprejudicezombies.htm
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=thechoice.htm (If you think this is more of a date type movie)


SING | 4.6m (-28%) | Family films are usually the big "winners" during the SB weekend, especially the animated ones
ROGUE ONE: A STAR WARS STORY | 3.5m (-34%) | See: TFA
MOANA | 1.5m (-40%) | TC will be key, was the sing-along a one week thing?


UPPER MID TIER


MONSTER TRUCKS | 2.5m (-39%) | See Sing, Expected TC/Volume loss keeps it down here
THE FOUNDER | 1.8m (-30%) | Can't be discounted given how well it held last week & the decent pta means it probably shouldn't disappear from the map.


MID TIER


SPLIT | 16.1m (-37%) | Amazing hold last week, but Rings will definitely impact it.
HIDDEN FIGURES | 11.3m (-19%) | High 20's, low 30's seems more appropriate (See The Descendants, King's Speech, etc.)
LA LA LAND | 9.9m (-19%) | See HF
RESIDENT EVIL: THE FINAL CHAPTER | 6m (-56%) | SB weekend is not very kind to this type of movie
XXX: THE RETURN OF XANDER CAGE | 4.3m (-50%) | See RE
GOLD | 2m (-43%) | Can it pull a Founder in its second week with a strong hold? I'm betting on no, wouldn't be shocked if Weinstein allows theaters to split screens.


WP CONTENDERS


RINGS | 17.4m (New) | Split overperforming took away most of its upside & greatly lowered its floor.
LION | 6.6m (182%) | 6.6m means a 3,300 pta in 2000 theaters. That would mean dropping only 20% of its pta in the SB weekend despite tripling its theaters, don't buy it at all.

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