I've probably never seen a week with pricing this tight. My first pass had 14 of the 15 movies in a $10 bux range. Setting the bar at $48k to better separate between tiers & because one movie always surprises, but I wouldn't be shocked if no movie got there.
TOP BP CONTENDERS
A DOG'S PURPOSE | 12.8m (-30%) | Animal / pet films usually hold really well THE SPACE BETWEEN US | 6.9m (New) | Bar was set low, STX has done a good job marketing its films, solid TC. The big issue I have with it is that it's a tweener type film, with a hard to define audience.
SING | 4.6m (-28%) | Family films are usually the big "winners" during the SB weekend, especially the animated ones ROGUE ONE: A STAR WARS STORY | 3.5m (-34%) | See: TFA MOANA | 1.5m (-40%) | TC will be key, was the sing-along a one week thing?
UPPER MID TIER
MONSTER TRUCKS | 2.5m (-39%) | See Sing, Expected TC/Volume loss keeps it down here THE FOUNDER | 1.8m (-30%) | Can't be discounted given how well it held last week & the decent pta means it probably shouldn't disappear from the map.
MID TIER
SPLIT | 16.1m (-37%) | Amazing hold last week, but Rings will definitely impact it. HIDDEN FIGURES | 11.3m (-19%) | High 20's, low 30's seems more appropriate (See The Descendants, King's Speech, etc.) LA LA LAND | 9.9m (-19%) | See HF RESIDENT EVIL: THE FINAL CHAPTER | 6m (-56%) | SB weekend is not very kind to this type of movie XXX: THE RETURN OF XANDER CAGE | 4.3m (-50%) | See RE GOLD | 2m (-43%) | Can it pull a Founder in its second week with a strong hold? I'm betting on no, wouldn't be shocked if Weinstein allows theaters to split screens.
WP CONTENDERS
RINGS | 17.4m (New) | Split overperforming took away most of its upside & greatly lowered its floor. LION | 6.6m (182%) | 6.6m means a 3,300 pta in 2000 theaters. That would mean dropping only 20% of its pta in the SB weekend despite tripling its theaters, don't buy it at all.
We're not still talking about the "controversy" are we. Its gone, if anything it could help the hold because if anybody was shamed into not going opening weekends by the protests now they can go
The 24 hour news cycle has completely moved on from ADP. (And that's a YUGE understatement.) Factor in the controversy if you want, but you're really in an echo chamber if you think anyone outside of this message board and PETA is still thinking about it.
Awards Week 10 Bonus Bar & Contenders
I've probably never seen a week with pricing this tight. My first pass had 14 of the 15 movies in a $10 bux range. Setting the bar at $48k to better separate between tiers & because one movie always surprises, but I wouldn't be shocked if no movie got there.
TOP BP CONTENDERS
A DOG'S PURPOSE | 12.8m (-30%) | Animal / pet films usually hold really well
THE SPACE BETWEEN US | 6.9m (New) | Bar was set low, STX has done a good job marketing its films, solid TC. The big issue I have with it is that it's a tweener type film, with a hard to define audience.
Sub 2,500 pta is rare for this kind of film, but not unprecedented:
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=vampireacademy.htm
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=amonstercalls.htm
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=cirquedufreak.htm
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=prideprejudicezombies.htm
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=thechoice.htm (If you think this is more of a date type movie)
SING | 4.6m (-28%) | Family films are usually the big "winners" during the SB weekend, especially the animated ones
ROGUE ONE: A STAR WARS STORY | 3.5m (-34%) | See: TFA
MOANA | 1.5m (-40%) | TC will be key, was the sing-along a one week thing?
UPPER MID TIER
MONSTER TRUCKS | 2.5m (-39%) | See Sing, Expected TC/Volume loss keeps it down here
THE FOUNDER | 1.8m (-30%) | Can't be discounted given how well it held last week & the decent pta means it probably shouldn't disappear from the map.
MID TIER
SPLIT | 16.1m (-37%) | Amazing hold last week, but Rings will definitely impact it.
HIDDEN FIGURES | 11.3m (-19%) | High 20's, low 30's seems more appropriate (See The Descendants, King's Speech, etc.)
LA LA LAND | 9.9m (-19%) | See HF
RESIDENT EVIL: THE FINAL CHAPTER | 6m (-56%) | SB weekend is not very kind to this type of movie
XXX: THE RETURN OF XANDER CAGE | 4.3m (-50%) | See RE
GOLD | 2m (-43%) | Can it pull a Founder in its second week with a strong hold? I'm betting on no, wouldn't be shocked if Weinstein allows theaters to split screens.
WP CONTENDERS
RINGS | 17.4m (New) | Split overperforming took away most of its upside & greatly lowered its floor.
LION | 6.6m (182%) | 6.6m means a 3,300 pta in 2000 theaters. That would mean dropping only 20% of its pta in the SB weekend despite tripling its theaters, don't buy it at all.
28 Replies
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Reply #1
@anepicmoviereviewer · Anepicmoviereviewer Cineplex (R) Jan 31, 2017, 8:02am PST
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Reply #2
@ccr · CCR Jan 31, 2017, 8:04am PST
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Reply #3
@user27dda6 · Split Second Jan 31, 2017, 8:05am PST
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Reply #4
@anepicmoviereviewer · Anepicmoviereviewer Cineplex (R) Jan 31, 2017, 8:06am PST
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Reply #5
@astotti · Astotti Jan 31, 2017, 8:12am PST
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Reply #6
@anepicmoviereviewer · Anepicmoviereviewer Cineplex (R) Jan 31, 2017, 8:13am PST
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Reply #7
@astotti · Astotti Jan 31, 2017, 8:16am PST
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Reply #8
@anepicmoviereviewer · Anepicmoviereviewer Cineplex (R) Jan 31, 2017, 8:18am PST
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Reply #9
@phils_phun_phlicks · Phil's Phun Phlicks! Jan 31, 2017, 8:23am PST
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Reply #10
@anepicmoviereviewer · Anepicmoviereviewer Cineplex (R) Jan 31, 2017, 8:24am PST
Add ReplyI like the top contenders but I'm questioning A Dog's Purpose holding that well.
@Anepic The history is there:
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=dolphintale.htm
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=hotelfordogs.htm
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=marleyandme.htm
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=flicka.htm
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=antarctica.htm
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=snowdogs.htm
Glad to see you feel that way about rings, agree 100%
True but I think it could still be hurt by the controversy. And the estimates dropped over the weekend which makes me question it's WOM.
We're not still talking about the "controversy" are we. Its gone, if anything it could help the hold because if anybody was shamed into not going opening weekends by the protests now they can go
It's still a factor I think. Also the pricing is restrictive for anchors.
I'm not saying I believe in it but we made way too much of the so called controversy last week and I don't see how it plays at all
But it does look like it hurt. The opening wasn't in the 20's like it would/could have been. I also haven't seen much good WOM.
The 24 hour news cycle has completely moved on from ADP. (And that's a YUGE understatement.) Factor in the controversy if you want, but you're really in an echo chamber if you think anyone outside of this message board and PETA is still thinking about it.
Good point. I'm mainly just looking at the reviews and WOM now. That was a minor point.
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