Awards Week 9: Pro Forecasts, Lineups

@fmlnerd · FML Nerd
Jan 25, 2017, 1:41pm PSTEdited

Awards Week 9: Pro Forecasts, Lineups

Below is a collection of forecasts and links to the Lineup Calculator given those forecasts (unforecasted films set to their Monday defaults) to see if a pattern emerges.

Lineup Summary

Todd Thatcher: 7x LLL + Sing
Deadline: ADP x6 + The Founder + blank
ProBoxOffice: ADP x6 + The Founder + blank
BoxOfficeReport: ADP x6 + The Founder + blank
BoxOfficeMojo: ADP x6 + The Founder + blank

FWIW, "Trending Now" as of:

1/26 1:15p Pacific: 11% Split, 10% LLL, 8% ADP
1/26 7:40p Pacific: 11% Split, 9% LLL, 9% ADP


I've only been doing this a couple of weeks, but this is the first time there's been consensus like this among the pros. That doesn't necessarily lead me to believe that that's what will actually happen, but it's interesting nonetheless.

Details below, updated as possible.

Todd Thatcher

Lineup Calculator,14600000,12800000,10300000,8900000,9900000,5600000,5400000,4600000,4500000,3400000,3300000,2200000,1700000,1500000

7x LLL + Sing


Lineup Calculator (high end set for each forecast),15000000,14674000,18000000,10000000

ADP x6 + The Founder + blank

Lineup Calculator,15500000,12600000,17500000,8660000,11400000,5850000,3750000,4600000,4330000

ADP x6 + The Founder + blank

Lineup Calculator,13500000,15000000,19000000,9500000,14000000,5700000,3200000,4200000,5200000,2800000,3500000

ADP x6 + The Founder + blank


Lineup Calculator,12200000,11600000,18000000,11000000,10000000,5400000,4100000,3500000,4000000

ADP x6 + The Founder + blank

29 Replies

  • Reply #21

    Weekend Warrior. I don't know if he's considered good enough to count or not, but here you are regardless.

    Rounding off, he has UpDog at 25.

    @concessions · Concessions
    Jan 25, 2017, 8:44pm PST
  • Reply #22

    What's UpDog?

    @mattacus · Andy's Mom's Toys
    Jan 25, 2017, 8:47pm PST
  • Reply #23

    ^^^^ he got LLL with a nice size drop.

    @askdablkdude · " I know a guy who know a guy" (KOTRT)
    Jan 25, 2017, 8:49pm PST
  • Reply #24

    ADP x6 will be most popular cinema

    @dead_et · Dead ET's Drive-In (R)
    Jan 25, 2017, 9:50pm PST
  • Reply #25

    Bump for Deadline update, who agrees with ADP as the anchor to go with. I also added a "Trending Now" snapshot

    @fmlnerd · FML Nerd
    Jan 26, 2017, 1:20pm PSTEdited
  • Reply #26

    I don't know Jay what's up with you?

    @user2am79y · Astotti
    Jan 26, 2017, 3:45pm PST
  • Reply #27

    @Rogue, his picks seem a bit lazy and his La La pick seems to imply he had no idea it was getting a Theater increase. I put 0 faith in those numbers

    @user2am79y · Astotti
    Jan 26, 2017, 3:47pm PST
  • Reply #28

    I don't know who Weekend Warrior is, but his projections are gawdawful (for this week, anyway). I'd rather listen to about 75 different people from here than those ridix numbers.

    @dylan · Biff
    Jan 26, 2017, 3:56pm PST
  • Reply #29

    Final bump for BOM's forecast.

    @fmlnerd · FML Nerd
    Jan 26, 2017, 7:44pm PST
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