Awards Week 9: Pro Forecasts, Lineups

@fmlnerd · FML Nerd
Jan 25, 2017, 1:41pm PSTEdited

Awards Week 9: Pro Forecasts, Lineups


Below is a collection of forecasts and links to the Lineup Calculator given those forecasts (unforecasted films set to their Monday defaults) to see if a pattern emerges.


Lineup Summary


Todd Thatcher: 7x LLL + Sing
Deadline: ADP x6 + The Founder + blank
ProBoxOffice: ADP x6 + The Founder + blank
BoxOfficeReport: ADP x6 + The Founder + blank
BoxOfficeMojo: ADP x6 + The Founder + blank


FWIW, MovieTickets.com "Trending Now" as of:


1/26 1:15p Pacific: 11% Split, 10% LLL, 8% ADP
1/26 7:40p Pacific: 11% Split, 9% LLL, 9% ADP


Conclusion:


I've only been doing this a couple of weeks, but this is the first time there's been consensus like this among the pros. That doesn't necessarily lead me to believe that that's what will actually happen, but it's interesting nonetheless.


Details below, updated as possible.


Todd Thatcher
-------------
Article
https://fantasymovieleague.com/posts/2066/week-9-box-office-estimates


Lineup Calculator
http://analyzer.fmlnerd.com/lineups/?ests=18500000,14600000,12800000,10300000,8900000,9900000,5600000,5400000,4600000,4500000,3400000,3300000,2200000,1700000,1500000


Lineup
7x LLL + Sing


Deadline
--------
Article
http://deadline.com/2017/01/split-dogs-purpose-gold-resident-evil-box-office-preview-1201894314/


Lineup Calculator (high end set for each forecast)
http://analyzer.fmlnerd.com/lineups/?ests=20000000,15000000,14674000,18000000,10000000


Lineup
ADP x6 + The Founder + blank


ProBoxOffice.com
Article
http://pro.boxoffice.com/weekend-forecast-resident-evil-final-chapter-dogs-purpose-gold/


Lineup Calculator
http://analyzer.fmlnerd.com/lineups/?ests=16500000,15500000,12600000,17500000,8660000,11400000,5850000,3750000,4600000,4330000


Lineup
ADP x6 + The Founder + blank


BoxOfficeReport.com
Article
http://www.boxofficereport.com/predictions/predictions20170125.html


Lineup Calculator
http://analyzer.fmlnerd.com/lineups/?ests=23000000,13500000,15000000,19000000,9500000,14000000,5700000,3200000,4200000,5200000,2800000,3500000


Lineup
ADP x6 + The Founder + blank


BoxOfficeMojo
Article
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4262&p=.htm


Lineup Calculator
http://analyzer.fmlnerd.com/lineups/?ests=18800000,12200000,11600000,18000000,11000000,10000000,5400000,4100000,3500000,4000000


Lineup
ADP x6 + The Founder + blank

29 Replies

  • Reply #11

    ProBox has edited their numbers.

    @user39kmx7 · Soulstar's Cineplex
    Jan 25, 2017, 8:01pm PSTEdited
  • Reply #12

    Yes, $40MM. As a matter of fact, the difference I have between two "all-in" lineups for two of the BP contenders is $34.8MM. Throw in the $5MM PC bonus and there you go.

    @user2avqgy · Teagplex
    Jan 25, 2017, 8:03pm PST
  • Reply #13

    Well Shit. I have a 36mil lead in my private league. Hoping we end up playing a similar lineup

    @user3npp5k · Planet of the Snapes Multiplex
    Jan 25, 2017, 8:13pm PST
  • Reply #14

    You could hedge and play a 3x/4x lineup, that would at least take a $40MM hit out of the picture for ya. Minimize the worst case?

    @user2avqgy · Teagplex
    Jan 25, 2017, 8:16pm PST
  • Reply #15

    Bump for PBO update, which didn't make a bottom line difference on their preferred lineup.

    @fmlnerd · FML Nerd
    Jan 25, 2017, 8:24pm PST
  • Reply #16

    They did change it. They increased La La to 11.6.

    @garbs · The Garbera Redemption (KotRT)
    Jan 25, 2017, 8:24pm PST
  • Reply #17

    @Planet of the Snapes
    Did someone sign an executive order exempting you from the censors?

    @usermg3d · mg3d
    Jan 25, 2017, 8:30pm PST
  • Reply #18

    Mg3d it's about being YUGE Shit or SHIT but can't be ****

    @user3npp5k · Planet of the Snapes Multiplex
    Jan 25, 2017, 8:31pm PST
  • Reply #19

    Well let me get my ***** in real fast then. Lol

    @askdablkdude · " I know a guy who know a guy" (KOTRT)
    Jan 25, 2017, 8:34pm PST
  • Reply #20

    But I can say Shit though. Lol

    @askdablkdude · " I know a guy who know a guy" (KOTRT)
    Jan 25, 2017, 8:35pm PST
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