Awards Week 9: Pro Forecasts, Lineups

@fmlnerd · FML Nerd
Jan 25, 2017, 1:41pm PSTEdited

Awards Week 9: Pro Forecasts, Lineups


Below is a collection of forecasts and links to the Lineup Calculator given those forecasts (unforecasted films set to their Monday defaults) to see if a pattern emerges.


Lineup Summary


Todd Thatcher: 7x LLL + Sing
Deadline: ADP x6 + The Founder + blank
ProBoxOffice: ADP x6 + The Founder + blank
BoxOfficeReport: ADP x6 + The Founder + blank
BoxOfficeMojo: ADP x6 + The Founder + blank


FWIW, MovieTickets.com "Trending Now" as of:


1/26 1:15p Pacific: 11% Split, 10% LLL, 8% ADP
1/26 7:40p Pacific: 11% Split, 9% LLL, 9% ADP


Conclusion:


I've only been doing this a couple of weeks, but this is the first time there's been consensus like this among the pros. That doesn't necessarily lead me to believe that that's what will actually happen, but it's interesting nonetheless.


Details below, updated as possible.


Todd Thatcher
-------------
Article
https://fantasymovieleague.com/posts/2066/week-9-box-office-estimates


Lineup Calculator
http://analyzer.fmlnerd.com/lineups/?ests=18500000,14600000,12800000,10300000,8900000,9900000,5600000,5400000,4600000,4500000,3400000,3300000,2200000,1700000,1500000


Lineup
7x LLL + Sing


Deadline
--------
Article
http://deadline.com/2017/01/split-dogs-purpose-gold-resident-evil-box-office-preview-1201894314/


Lineup Calculator (high end set for each forecast)
http://analyzer.fmlnerd.com/lineups/?ests=20000000,15000000,14674000,18000000,10000000


Lineup
ADP x6 + The Founder + blank


ProBoxOffice.com
Article
http://pro.boxoffice.com/weekend-forecast-resident-evil-final-chapter-dogs-purpose-gold/


Lineup Calculator
http://analyzer.fmlnerd.com/lineups/?ests=16500000,15500000,12600000,17500000,8660000,11400000,5850000,3750000,4600000,4330000


Lineup
ADP x6 + The Founder + blank


BoxOfficeReport.com
Article
http://www.boxofficereport.com/predictions/predictions20170125.html


Lineup Calculator
http://analyzer.fmlnerd.com/lineups/?ests=23000000,13500000,15000000,19000000,9500000,14000000,5700000,3200000,4200000,5200000,2800000,3500000


Lineup
ADP x6 + The Founder + blank


BoxOfficeMojo
Article
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4262&p=.htm


Lineup Calculator
http://analyzer.fmlnerd.com/lineups/?ests=18800000,12200000,11600000,18000000,11000000,10000000,5400000,4100000,3500000,4000000


Lineup
ADP x6 + The Founder + blank

29 Replies

  • Reply #1

    Man everyone is all about this TBD movie... I've never even heard of it...

    @henrythehedgehog · Henry the Hedgehog
    Jan 25, 2017, 2:10pm PST
  • Reply #2

    Might have to abandon the hedge for 8x TBD this week Henry

    @user2am79y · Astotti
    Jan 25, 2017, 2:29pm PST
  • Reply #3

    Bump for PBO forecast, which is completely buying ADP

    @fmlnerd · FML Nerd
    Jan 25, 2017, 4:18pm PST
  • Reply #4

    it is getting more difficult to trust my gut and avoid ADP. i mean....in this country people care about animals more than humans but when the movie has the accusations this one had.....i just don't know.

    @legitalt1985 · The Legit Alternate 1985
    Jan 25, 2017, 4:25pm PST
  • Reply #5

    ProBO's % change column is all kinds of wacked.

    @user4p8al6 · I Need a Home
    Jan 25, 2017, 4:28pm PST
  • Reply #6

    I only listen to BOR!

    @dead_et · Dead ET's Drive-In (R)
    Jan 25, 2017, 5:19pm PST
  • Reply #7

    Bump for BOR, which feels the same as PBO

    @fmlnerd · FML Nerd
    Jan 25, 2017, 6:00pm PST
  • Reply #8

    I don't think I've ever seen a movie's momentum zig and then zag as severely as A Dog's Purpose's has. Right now I'm just hoping that someone put in a 6 x ADP, 1 x Founder, 1 x Blank cineplex before 8:04 on Monday, because I had it in at that time, but switched away from it.

    @bdc · Billion Dollar Cineplex
    Jan 25, 2017, 6:49pm PST
  • Reply #9

    I think that this is going to be one heck of a showdown for BP this weekend, and the side that wins could put a $40 mil swing on the side that loses.

    @bswhite · BSwhite's Spoonful Of Sugarplex
    Jan 25, 2017, 7:02pm PST
  • Reply #10

    You really think 40mil?

    @user3npp5k · Planet of the Snapes Multiplex
    Jan 25, 2017, 7:49pm PST
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