So Arrival is expanding to 1,100 this weekend.. .and we don't get a chance to play it.
Manchester will hit about 1,500, which should make it a great play.
Things will be shaken up regardless:
Really? So if you play a movie that is supposed to make 7m and makes 9m and you play it 8times you get a total of 88m. (After winning the BP) I have a theatre that leads with two 20m (projected at 19) the three screens at 10M (projected at 10) and three at 7m (projected at 6m). My total is 91 without a BP bump. So how exactly is it winning if you only shoot for the BP.
Now I am fairly new to FML, but seemed to pick this up well as I am already inside the top 700 I think. My strategy seems to be working.Jan 25, 2017, 5:15am PST
What movie do you have winning BP at 9Mil? Because if you're talking about La La, it's going to need higher than 9Mil to take it. Which would put it over your raw total. Plus you would be another 5Mil in the hole from the PC bonus.Jan 25, 2017, 5:22am PST
Anyone can make up any kind of contrived example as you just did. Your example proves nothing. It isn't even realistic, and here is why....
If a movie is "supposed" to make 7m, it would probably be priced around 70 Bux, probably a bit less. That means if you play it 8 times, you would be leaving 440 Bux on the table. No one wins leaving 440 Bux on the table. It is more likely that in reality, the PC in such a week would consist of a higher-priced anchor once or twice, and 6 or 7 of the BP.
But go on ahead with your strategy. Like you said, you are in the top 700. :)Jan 25, 2017, 5:26am PST
Only two times has the perfect lineup not had the BP in it. BP winners are valuable in your lineup because they are the most efficient. With only the 4 projections you gave me, I can't say for sure, but I reckon you could use 3 of your 19m priced movies (for 60m total)and 5 of the BP (45 m total) and you end up with 105.Jan 25, 2017, 5:30am PSTEdited
Really I am trying to understand this weeks love for LLL. It's expanding I get it, and although I don't fully understand the math relation to FML price = project weekly gross, I am trying to see how it is beneficial to play. It is priced at $126, does that mean it need to make 12m to be even with its fml price ? Early projections have to y coming in at 10m ish. How does that even give it a fighting chance. If I am wrong, what does it need to make to be even with its FML price?Jan 25, 2017, 5:39am PST
You are right in sniffing out that LLL needs a really good increase to be in contention. Its a lot to ask for, but it has happened before on this week
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?view=&yr=2011&wknd=04&p=.htmJan 25, 2017, 5:46am PST
It's not about "being even with its FML price." It is about having the best value.
If you look at the Bonus Bar thread, the bar is set each week at a certain amount. This week I think it is 75K. That means for a movie to have a shot at having the best value of the week (be the BP), it needs to earn at the box office 75K per FML$. Some weeks the bar is higher, some weeks it is lower. It all depends on how movies are projected to earn, relative to their price here.
This week, if LLL were to earn $10M, that gives it a value of about 80K. That is above the bar. Thus, it would be worth looking at. For, say, Split, if it were to earn $22MM this week, its value would be around 56K. So it is probably not worth looking at.
When you say "being even with its FML price," I think you mean a value of 100K. Some weeks, no movies will have a value of 100K or more. Some weeks, more than one will. There is no one value to shoot for, week to week.Jan 25, 2017, 5:53am PST
Last week Split made over 100K in its value. It wasn't even close to being projected to make that. So that is a rarity. But don't look at 100K value each week. That's not a realistic number to hit each week.Jan 25, 2017, 6:13am PST
Can we straighten one thing out before proceeding in this (very helpful) debate.
Because a movie is priced, for example, 150 FML bux, does NOT mean an indication of it was priced to make 15mil. It's about the ratio compared to what else is on the market. Like the last 2-3 weeks, we don't really see any movies priced above 400, or below 2/3/40 or so. When you have weeks where you have the 5/6/700's, then you see movies priced at like 17.Jan 25, 2017, 6:15am PST
That's correct!Jan 25, 2017, 6:16am PST