Awards Week 8 Bonus Bar & Contenders

@ccr · CCR
Jan 18, 2017, 10:50am PSTEdited

Setting the bar at 80k, the anchor battle should be very interesting this week, as well as how people adjust for the post-holiday weekend & the NFL games on Sunday


SPLIT | 28.5m (New) | Upwards LRF is usually a good sign, good reviews & solid TC, needs 12% than The Visit to reach the bar
XXX: THE RETURN OF XANDER CAGE | 26.7m (New) | Downwards LRF is not a good sign, but plenty of examples of similar movies that finished above their tracking estimates. Lower bar to clear than Split
PATRIOTS DAY | 7.8m (-32%) | Should have a pretty solid hold given the A+ cinemascore
MONSTER TRUCKS | 5.8m (-47%) | Similar films haven't really crashed in the past


HIDDEN FIGURES | 17.1m (-18%) | Bar set too high after huge MLK weekend
LA LA LAND | 13.9m (-4%) | See HF
SING | 10.2m (-29%) | This weekend hasn't been very kind for animated films in the past
ROGUE ONE: A STAR WARS STORY | 9m (-33%) | Continues to "underperform" vs. SW:FA
THE BYE BYE MAN | 6.9m (-49%) | Split will take a huge part of its audience
PASSENGERS (2016) | 3.3m (-39%) | TC will take a hit, lots of new competition in the PG-13 market


SLEEPLESS | 5m (-40%) | Surprised a lot of people finishing its OW above expectations, xXx should take a big part of its audience
UNDERWORLD: BLOOD WARS | 3.4m (-46%) | TC loss could be brutal, competition in both the horror & action fronts


20TH CENTURY WOMEN | 3.8m (1115%) | No idea on where the TC will end up, needs at least 500+ to enter the conversation, very likely it ends up as a WP contender


THE FOUNDER | 5.9m (New) | Needs a 6,000 pta, which is very high, could get lost in the adult drama shuffle considering no awards nominations & a ton of competition, TC is not very promising
LIVE BY NIGHT | 3.4m (-34%) | Weekend pattern points at a huge 2nd week crash

22 Replies

  • Reply #21

    I'm considering that if 20CW has a decent TC and Split comes in with a good Thursday number.

    @anepicmoviereviewer · Anepicmoviereviewer Cineplex (R)
    Jan 18, 2017, 1:30pm PST
  • Reply #22

    @CCR. I picked 85 fairly randomly. Tried a few other numbers too. Used 85 because i think it overshoots a little bit and i would rather overshoot than underestimate. If you're using 80 i feel pretty good about using 85.

    @Sparty...maybe. If one considers the films you mention as films for grown ups. To me, 20CW would compare better to Fences or Moonlight in terms of what i am referring to. But i could be wrong. I have not seen 20CW...maybe it really isn't a grown up movie at all.

    @legitalt1985 · The Legit Alternate 1985
    Jan 18, 2017, 2:03pm PST
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