Awards Week 8 Bonus Bar & Contenders

@ccr · CCR
Jan 18, 2017, 10:50am PSTEdited

Setting the bar at 80k, the anchor battle should be very interesting this week, as well as how people adjust for the post-holiday weekend & the NFL games on Sunday


SPLIT | 28.5m (New) | Upwards LRF is usually a good sign, good reviews & solid TC, needs 12% than The Visit to reach the bar
XXX: THE RETURN OF XANDER CAGE | 26.7m (New) | Downwards LRF is not a good sign, but plenty of examples of similar movies that finished above their tracking estimates. Lower bar to clear than Split
PATRIOTS DAY | 7.8m (-32%) | Should have a pretty solid hold given the A+ cinemascore
MONSTER TRUCKS | 5.8m (-47%) | Similar films haven't really crashed in the past


HIDDEN FIGURES | 17.1m (-18%) | Bar set too high after huge MLK weekend
LA LA LAND | 13.9m (-4%) | See HF
SING | 10.2m (-29%) | This weekend hasn't been very kind for animated films in the past
ROGUE ONE: A STAR WARS STORY | 9m (-33%) | Continues to "underperform" vs. SW:FA
THE BYE BYE MAN | 6.9m (-49%) | Split will take a huge part of its audience
PASSENGERS (2016) | 3.3m (-39%) | TC will take a hit, lots of new competition in the PG-13 market


SLEEPLESS | 5m (-40%) | Surprised a lot of people finishing its OW above expectations, xXx should take a big part of its audience
UNDERWORLD: BLOOD WARS | 3.4m (-46%) | TC loss could be brutal, competition in both the horror & action fronts


20TH CENTURY WOMEN | 3.8m (1115%) | No idea on where the TC will end up, needs at least 500+ to enter the conversation, very likely it ends up as a WP contender


THE FOUNDER | 5.9m (New) | Needs a 6,000 pta, which is very high, could get lost in the adult drama shuffle considering no awards nominations & a ton of competition, TC is not very promising
LIVE BY NIGHT | 3.4m (-34%) | Weekend pattern points at a huge 2nd week crash

22 Replies

  • Reply #11

    Looking through animated movies this weekend, it seems like most that drop hard this weekend also either struggle in TC, had been out quite a bit longer, and/or were much less successful. When looking at animated movies this time of year in the upper range of grosses, it seems that most actually hold quite well.

    200 million + domestic grossers this weekend.
    Tangled: -22.6%
    Aladdin: -11.7% (BOM doesn't show the drop, this is what I got, someone check my math)
    Beauty and the Beast: -32.7% (again, check plz)
    Toy Story 2: -41.9% (outlier)
    The Incredibles: -50.7%, but had been out much longer and lost a high percentage of theaters.
    Monsters Inc: -55.9%, lost over half of its theaters, been out much longer
    Frozen: -22.5%

    So we have a great range of results, but most animated from Thanksgiving weekend OW on held at or better than the bonus bar hold, with the exception of Toy Story 2.

    @user3g8gn4 · Lafond: Covenant
    Jan 18, 2017, 12:40pm PST
  • Reply #12

    @You know Thanks, I'll add it to the list

    @Backseat / Alternate I imagine what you both have in mind, but you can't set the bar just based on your expectatitons of one movie.

    @Phil Definitely agree, 20CW audience is easily defined & there are ton of comps:,mynameisdoris.htm

    Etc.... I could name a ton of similar films

    @ccr · CCR
    Jan 18, 2017, 12:40pm PST
  • Reply #13

    @La La Fond I think that you missed the most obvious comps (similar Dec release dates, singing animals, in over 2,500 theaters in the MLK weekend, didn't lose a ton of theaters)

    Every single one dropped more than 35%, including a pair of mid 40's drops

    @ccr · CCR
    Jan 18, 2017, 12:47pm PST
  • Reply #14

    @Phil: So would you say 20CW is a "Grandma movie"? Actually, don't answer that!

    @20thcentury_flops · 20th Century Flops
    Jan 18, 2017, 12:48pm PST
  • Reply #15

    @Flops: Yeah, let's not go down that path again...

    Although, can I call xxx a "Cool Dad Movie?" Does that make any sense to anyone but me?

    @phils_phun_phlicks · Phil's Phun Phlicks!
    Jan 18, 2017, 12:55pm PST
  • Reply #16

    I would say more teenage boy movie but sure why not ?

    @anepicmoviereviewer · Anepicmoviereviewer Cineplex (R)
    Jan 18, 2017, 12:55pm PST
  • Reply #17

    Phil no pun intended but I would much more call xxx a Phil Dunphy movie than a cool dad movie. There's nothing cool about Vin Diesel outside of the FF franchise. Last Witch Hunter anyone?!?

    @hmg · Hoosier Movie Guy
    Jan 18, 2017, 1:03pm PST
  • Reply #18

    I was looking at movies that were on the higher ends of grosses, better comparisons.

    @user3g8gn4 · Lafond: Covenant
    Jan 18, 2017, 1:07pm PST
  • Reply #19

    So if you set BB at 80K and use the lineup sliders to get to the 80K mark, the PC would be 2xSplit 6x20CW. Take it with a grain of salt.

    @waco_kid · The Waco Kidplex
    Jan 18, 2017, 1:23pm PST
  • Reply #20

    @HillValley - Isn't the 'grown up' market actually pretty saturated right now? LLL, Patriots Day, Hidden Figures, etc?

    @sparty · Sparty®
    Jan 18, 2017, 1:29pm PST
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