Awards Week 8 Bonus Bar & Contenders
Setting the bar at 80k, the anchor battle should be very interesting this week, as well as how people adjust for the post-holiday weekend & the NFL games on Sunday
TOP BP CONTENDERS
SPLIT | 28.5m (New) | Upwards LRF is usually a good sign, good reviews & solid TC, needs 12% than The Visit to reach the bar
XXX: THE RETURN OF XANDER CAGE | 26.7m (New) | Downwards LRF is not a good sign, but plenty of examples of similar movies that finished above their tracking estimates. Lower bar to clear than Split
PATRIOTS DAY | 7.8m (-32%) | Should have a pretty solid hold given the A+ cinemascore
MONSTER TRUCKS | 5.8m (-47%) | Similar films haven't really crashed in the past
HIDDEN FIGURES | 17.1m (-18%) | Bar set too high after huge MLK weekend
LA LA LAND | 13.9m (-4%) | See HF
SING | 10.2m (-29%) | This weekend hasn't been very kind for animated films in the past
ROGUE ONE: A STAR WARS STORY | 9m (-33%) | Continues to "underperform" vs. SW:FA
THE BYE BYE MAN | 6.9m (-49%) | Split will take a huge part of its audience
PASSENGERS (2016) | 3.3m (-39%) | TC will take a hit, lots of new competition in the PG-13 market
LOWER MID TIER
SLEEPLESS | 5m (-40%) | Surprised a lot of people finishing its OW above expectations, xXx should take a big part of its audience
UNDERWORLD: BLOOD WARS | 3.4m (-46%) | TC loss could be brutal, competition in both the horror & action fronts
20TH CENTURY WOMEN | 3.8m (1115%) | No idea on where the TC will end up, needs at least 500+ to enter the conversation, very likely it ends up as a WP contender
THE FOUNDER | 5.9m (New) | Needs a 6,000 pta, which is very high, could get lost in the adult drama shuffle considering no awards nominations & a ton of competition, TC is not very promising
LIVE BY NIGHT | 3.4m (-34%) | Weekend pattern points at a huge 2nd week crash
Looking through animated movies this weekend, it seems like most that drop hard this weekend also either struggle in TC, had been out quite a bit longer, and/or were much less successful. When looking at animated movies this time of year in the upper range of grosses, it seems that most actually hold quite well.
200 million + domestic grossers this weekend.
Aladdin: -11.7% (BOM doesn't show the drop, this is what I got, someone check my math)
Beauty and the Beast: -32.7% (again, check plz)
Toy Story 2: -41.9% (outlier)
The Incredibles: -50.7%, but had been out much longer and lost a high percentage of theaters.
Monsters Inc: -55.9%, lost over half of its theaters, been out much longer
So we have a great range of results, but most animated from Thanksgiving weekend OW on held at or better than the bonus bar hold, with the exception of Toy Story 2.Jan 18, 2017, 12:40pm PST
@You know Thanks, I'll add it to the list
@Backseat / Alternate I imagine what you both have in mind, but you can't set the bar just based on your expectatitons of one movie.
@Phil Definitely agree, 20CW audience is easily defined & there are ton of comps:
Etc.... I could name a ton of similar filmsJan 18, 2017, 12:40pm PST
@La La Fond I think that you missed the most obvious comps (similar Dec release dates, singing animals, in over 2,500 theaters in the MLK weekend, didn't lose a ton of theaters)
Every single one dropped more than 35%, including a pair of mid 40's dropsJan 18, 2017, 12:47pm PST
@Phil: So would you say 20CW is a "Grandma movie"? Actually, don't answer that!Jan 18, 2017, 12:48pm PST
@Flops: Yeah, let's not go down that path again...
Although, can I call xxx a "Cool Dad Movie?" Does that make any sense to anyone but me?Jan 18, 2017, 12:55pm PST
I would say more teenage boy movie but sure why not ?Jan 18, 2017, 12:55pm PST
Phil no pun intended but I would much more call xxx a Phil Dunphy movie than a cool dad movie. There's nothing cool about Vin Diesel outside of the FF franchise. Last Witch Hunter anyone?!?Jan 18, 2017, 1:03pm PST
I was looking at movies that were on the higher ends of grosses, better comparisons.Jan 18, 2017, 1:07pm PST
So if you set BB at 80K and use the lineup sliders to get to the 80K mark, the PC would be 2xSplit 6x20CW. Take it with a grain of salt.Jan 18, 2017, 1:23pm PST
@HillValley - Isn't the 'grown up' market actually pretty saturated right now? LLL, Patriots Day, Hidden Figures, etc?Jan 18, 2017, 1:29pm PST