Awards Week 8 Bonus Bar & Contenders

@ccr · CCR
Jan 18, 2017, 10:50am PSTEdited

Setting the bar at 80k, the anchor battle should be very interesting this week, as well as how people adjust for the post-holiday weekend & the NFL games on Sunday


SPLIT | 28.5m (New) | Upwards LRF is usually a good sign, good reviews & solid TC, needs 12% than The Visit to reach the bar
XXX: THE RETURN OF XANDER CAGE | 26.7m (New) | Downwards LRF is not a good sign, but plenty of examples of similar movies that finished above their tracking estimates. Lower bar to clear than Split
PATRIOTS DAY | 7.8m (-32%) | Should have a pretty solid hold given the A+ cinemascore
MONSTER TRUCKS | 5.8m (-47%) | Similar films haven't really crashed in the past


HIDDEN FIGURES | 17.1m (-18%) | Bar set too high after huge MLK weekend
LA LA LAND | 13.9m (-4%) | See HF
SING | 10.2m (-29%) | This weekend hasn't been very kind for animated films in the past
ROGUE ONE: A STAR WARS STORY | 9m (-33%) | Continues to "underperform" vs. SW:FA
THE BYE BYE MAN | 6.9m (-49%) | Split will take a huge part of its audience
PASSENGERS (2016) | 3.3m (-39%) | TC will take a hit, lots of new competition in the PG-13 market


SLEEPLESS | 5m (-40%) | Surprised a lot of people finishing its OW above expectations, xXx should take a big part of its audience
UNDERWORLD: BLOOD WARS | 3.4m (-46%) | TC loss could be brutal, competition in both the horror & action fronts


20TH CENTURY WOMEN | 3.8m (1115%) | No idea on where the TC will end up, needs at least 500+ to enter the conversation, very likely it ends up as a WP contender


THE FOUNDER | 5.9m (New) | Needs a 6,000 pta, which is very high, could get lost in the adult drama shuffle considering no awards nominations & a ton of competition, TC is not very promising
LIVE BY NIGHT | 3.4m (-34%) | Weekend pattern points at a huge 2nd week crash

22 Replies

  • Reply #1

    Dig it. I'm skeptical of xXx but it has to stay in consideration until more info is revealed. I have the bar even higher, but mostly I think there's clear separation between contenders and pretenders this week.

    @backseatdirecting · BackseatDirecting
    Jan 18, 2017, 11:02am PST
  • Reply #2

    You forgot about Passengers...

    @yktgftm · You know that guy from that movie...®
    Jan 18, 2017, 11:07am PST
  • Reply #3

    @You know - Did he? Did he REALLY?

    @phils_phun_phlicks · Phil's Phun Phlicks!
    Jan 18, 2017, 11:12am PST
  • Reply #4

    20th Century Women is getting a wide release this weekend so that means at least 600 theaters. Definitely a movie I'm keeping my eye on.

    @hackman · HackMan!: The REAL Hack
    Jan 18, 2017, 11:43am PST
  • Reply #5

    Hush down there Phil - We're trying to keep SKYNET'S Passengers BP play so far on the down low, that no one knows it's even still screenable!

    @bswhite · BSwhite 1970's Discoplex
    Jan 18, 2017, 11:47am PST
  • Reply #6

    i set a bar at 85k. i also do not like any of the filler options behind the new release anchors. seems like not really a lot of good options if you go 2x Split/xXx. but going with only one of those doesn't seem feasible either.

    20CW is a huge question mark to me. could see it as WP or BP to be honest.

    @legitalt1985 · The Legit Alternate 1985
    Jan 18, 2017, 11:49am PST
  • Reply #7

    Serious question - who is really going to see 20CW? I just can't think who the target audience is, other than old people that like Annette Benning?

    @dead_et · Dead ET's Drive-In (R)
    Jan 18, 2017, 12:16pm PST
  • Reply #8

    20CW has a pretty easy to ID audience. Hello My Name is Doris from last year and Grandma from 2015 are good starting points.

    @phils_phun_phlicks · Phil's Phun Phlicks!
    Jan 18, 2017, 12:21pm PST
  • Reply #9

    Still Alice might also be a good place to look.

    @user2avqgy · Teagplex
    Jan 18, 2017, 12:24pm PST
  • Reply #10

    the audience for 20CW will be one of the more overlooked audiences: grown ups.

    @legitalt1985 · The Legit Alternate 1985
    Jan 18, 2017, 12:28pm PST
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