Awards Week 7 Bonus Bar & Contenders

@ccr · CCR
Jan 10, 2017, 8:15am PST

Setting the bar at 100k, which could end up a bit high. Expecting a big post snow storm rebound for holdovers.


TOP BP CONTENDERS


HIDDEN FIGURES | 24.1m (6%) | Don't expect a Selma like MLK bump, but the hold should be good enough that it can't be discounted given the A+ Cinemascore (see The Help & The Butler 2nd weekend). Lack of GG nominations / wins probably make me think it could end up short
SING | 21m (1%) | Little competition despite the huge amount of new releases (unless you think that MT can take away from it). Animated films usually get really big MLK bumps.
FENCES | 4.9m (2%) | Exposure at the GG (several nominations + Davis win) + rebound from HF + MLK day


RISK /UPSIDE PLAYS


MONSTER TRUCKS | 12.7m (New) | Think it surprises some people, probably not banking on it going this high given the terrible WTS figures (2,707 ratings, 72%)
THE BYE BYE MAN | 12.6m (New) | The history of PG-13 horror movies in January is pretty good, STX has been good at targeted releases & the movie market for teens is barren right now, but the horrible WTS scores (2,839, 82%) give me a lot of pause


As of now, I wouldn't be surprised if these two movies end up competing for the BP or if they end up as the WPs, still need more information.


UPPER MID TIER


LA LA LAND | 15.9m (57%) | Could jump up a tier with a good sized expansion, movies that have had big GG weekends usually see a nice bump.
PASSENGERS | 7.3m (-17%) | If BBM fails to find an audience, what else are teens going to see. Also, probably the only date movie in the entire market. A big TC cut could drop it to the mid tier category.


MID TIER


PATRIOTS DAY | 34.3m (New) | Don't think it reaches Lone Suvivor numbers, something around what Contraband did seems more likely given the amount of competition
ROGUE ONE: A STAR WARS STORY | 21.1m (-4%) | Has disappointed every step of the way
UNDERWORLD: BLOOD WARS | 9.7m (-29%) | Don't see any upside
MOANA | 7.4m (16%) | Losing a good amount of theaters, continues with an "atypical" pattern of big daily numbers for an animated film, with lower weekend increases.
SILENCE | 4.7m (875%) | 6,200+ pta seems excessive given its previous figures


WP CONTENDERS


LIVE BY NIGHT | 23.9m (New) | This movie bet on getting several awards nominations, which it didn't get. A performance like the movie below, wouldn't shock me:


http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=brokencity.htm


SLEEPLESS | 16.7m (New) | Ton of competition between LBN & PD, seems like a dump. Thinking it ends under 8m
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=triplenine.htm
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=mann2015.htm
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=laststand.htm


WHY HIM? | 7.2m (4%) | Could see big TC loss, ton of new "indirect" competition.

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