Awards Week 7 Bonus Bar & Contenders

@ccr · CCR
Jan 10, 2017, 8:15am PST

Setting the bar at 100k, which could end up a bit high. Expecting a big post snow storm rebound for holdovers.


TOP BP CONTENDERS


HIDDEN FIGURES | 24.1m (6%) | Don't expect a Selma like MLK bump, but the hold should be good enough that it can't be discounted given the A+ Cinemascore (see The Help & The Butler 2nd weekend). Lack of GG nominations / wins probably make me think it could end up short
SING | 21m (1%) | Little competition despite the huge amount of new releases (unless you think that MT can take away from it). Animated films usually get really big MLK bumps.
FENCES | 4.9m (2%) | Exposure at the GG (several nominations + Davis win) + rebound from HF + MLK day


RISK /UPSIDE PLAYS


MONSTER TRUCKS | 12.7m (New) | Think it surprises some people, probably not banking on it going this high given the terrible WTS figures (2,707 ratings, 72%)
THE BYE BYE MAN | 12.6m (New) | The history of PG-13 horror movies in January is pretty good, STX has been good at targeted releases & the movie market for teens is barren right now, but the horrible WTS scores (2,839, 82%) give me a lot of pause


As of now, I wouldn't be surprised if these two movies end up competing for the BP or if they end up as the WPs, still need more information.


UPPER MID TIER


LA LA LAND | 15.9m (57%) | Could jump up a tier with a good sized expansion, movies that have had big GG weekends usually see a nice bump.
PASSENGERS | 7.3m (-17%) | If BBM fails to find an audience, what else are teens going to see. Also, probably the only date movie in the entire market. A big TC cut could drop it to the mid tier category.


MID TIER


PATRIOTS DAY | 34.3m (New) | Don't think it reaches Lone Suvivor numbers, something around what Contraband did seems more likely given the amount of competition
ROGUE ONE: A STAR WARS STORY | 21.1m (-4%) | Has disappointed every step of the way
UNDERWORLD: BLOOD WARS | 9.7m (-29%) | Don't see any upside
MOANA | 7.4m (16%) | Losing a good amount of theaters, continues with an "atypical" pattern of big daily numbers for an animated film, with lower weekend increases.
SILENCE | 4.7m (875%) | 6,200+ pta seems excessive given its previous figures


WP CONTENDERS


LIVE BY NIGHT | 23.9m (New) | This movie bet on getting several awards nominations, which it didn't get. A performance like the movie below, wouldn't shock me:


http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=brokencity.htm


SLEEPLESS | 16.7m (New) | Ton of competition between LBN & PD, seems like a dump. Thinking it ends under 8m
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=triplenine.htm
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=mann2015.htm
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=laststand.htm


WHY HIM? | 7.2m (4%) | Could see big TC loss, ton of new "indirect" competition.

18 Replies

  • Reply #1

    Sleepless could easily end up as WP.

    @anepicmoviereviewer · Anepicmoviereviewer Cineplex (R)
    Jan 10, 2017, 8:18am PST
  • Reply #2

    Very well done CCR!

    @dead_et · Dead ET's Drive-In (R)
    Jan 10, 2017, 8:19am PST
  • Reply #3

    Bump for a job well done as always.


    I wouldn't - ahem - sleep on Sleepless. It's Taken with a different relatively bankable star as lead. And there's a reason they made three of those movies...

    @sparty · Sparty
    Jan 10, 2017, 8:51am PST
  • Reply #4

    Thanks CCR, great work as always. How bad of a hit do you think the TC for Rogue One, Moana, Sing, Why Him? and Passengers will take with 6 movies bum rushing the market?

    @hackman · HackMan!: The REAL Hack
    Jan 10, 2017, 8:52am PST
  • Reply #5

    Rogue One and Sing are still putting up good per theatre numbers so I would be surprised if bigger theatres drop them. you might see some loss and the single screen small town theatres can finally dump them but that just shaving off theatres with the smallest numbers anyways

    @user2am79y · Astotti
    Jan 10, 2017, 9:00am PST
  • Reply #6

    @Hackman


    Here's what I'm working with:


    HF | 2,600 (+129)
    R1 | 3,500 (-657)
    Sing | 3,300 (-655)
    LLL | 2,300 (+785)
    Passengers | 2,300 (-1,100)
    WH? | 1,700 (-1,204)
    Moana | 1,600 (-949)
    Fences | 1,800 (-568)

    @ccr · CCR
    Jan 10, 2017, 9:10am PST
  • Reply #7

    @ CCR - Looks pretty good to me, keep up the good work.

    @hackman · HackMan!: The REAL Hack
    Jan 10, 2017, 9:21am PST
  • Reply #8

    Thanks CCR! I agree with the 100k bar, prefer to err on the side of "too high" than "too low," and I'll bet a couple films break it. Sing wasn't really on my radar, but you make a good point about the lack of competition. I could see LLL (and maybe Passengers) in contention; it'll be pretty important to unwind the storm's affect on last weekend.

    @backseatdirecting · BackseatDirecting
    Jan 10, 2017, 10:50am PST
  • Reply #9

    I'll park my car here, instead of diving into the negativity of the "I quit" thread... :P


    I'm high on the La La Land bump, if the theater count is right.
    It cleaned up at the Golden Globes, I'm buying into the momentum.

    @bowser · Bowser's Theater of Love
    Jan 10, 2017, 11:40am PST
  • Reply #10

    With so many options, I wonder why the FML overlords kept Why Him? in the mix this week?

    @user2xownw · The Dirte Movie House
    Jan 10, 2017, 12:04pm PST
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