BSA - Awards Week 3: "Rogue One Sunday, It's A Trap!"

@bswhite · BSwhite 1970's Discoplex
Dec 14, 2016, 8:27am PST

Good Wednesday all, BS here, with your Awards Season Week 3 BSA! First a recap of last week's BSA, which saw a very bold stance taken against Office Christmas Party. The bold BSA paid off, as OCP was not the BP, nor did it make up any of the PC. The success improves the overall record of the BSA to 51 for 58 (87.93%)! Moving on to this week, and it would be remiss for BS to avoid Rogue One in the BSA column. So, for Week 3 of Awards Season, the BSA advises against:


Alright, Rogue One SUNDAY is the cheapest of the (3) daily options, at $403 FML BUX, so you could screen it 2x, and still have almost $200 FML BUX left over to work with. Well, there's a couple of issues with Sunday that BS is here to point out.

CALENDAR: This may not seem important, but it I think it plays a crucial role, especially with Sunday. We had a Leap Day earlier this year, which pushed us 2 days ahead, with respect to how the dates/days of the week will fall here in December. Last year, Force Awakens opened on the 18th, and that weekend basically just rolled you right into Christmas week. It was a perfect storm of non-stop holiday time. This year, the added distance of 2 days will play a factor, as Christmas will be a full week beyond this Sunday. Which leads into the next factor.....

SCHOOLS: Many schools began their Holiday break last year on the weekend that Force Awakened opened. That's not the case this year. With a full 5 day week coming up which doesn't include Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, many school districts are operating for most, if not all of this upcoming week. That will affect the Sunday gross for Rogue One, as many kids (and parents by default) won't have the luxury of Monday being a day off, like it was for many in 2015. The result of this should be a larger Sat to Sun drop than what we saw with Force Awakens.

ANTICIPATION (FANTICIPATION?) - Rogue One will get a ton of business this weekend, and the anticipation is high, don't get me wrong. However, it won't carry the same "must rush out to see" factor that Force Awakens did. Rogue One will get a huge opening push, and then probably settle back into a solid groove throughout the 2+ week holiday period. Casual fans who rushed out last year to Force Awakens (so they didn't get spoiled), will take their time with Rogue One. As a result, after the initial burst on Thu/Fri/Sat, I expect Rogue One to tail off, starting on Sunday, and then through some of the succeeding weekdays, before picking back up again through Christmas and New Year's.

BOTTOM LINE: If you are leading with Rogue One this weekend, your decision should be between #ALWAYSFRIDAY or SATURDAY. Rogue One SUNDAY will not be the BP, nor will it factor into the PC. Listen to BS and AA - It's a TRAP! As always, good luck!

38 Replies

  • Reply #1

    Currently, 26.6% of FML is flying into a trap!

    @bswhite · BSwhite 1970's Discoplex
    Dec 14, 2016, 8:27am PST
  • Reply #2

    School will be a major factor. Most schools now get off on the Tuesday or Wednesday so I expect dailies to be huge.

    @anepicmoviereviewer · Anepicmoviereviewer Cineplex (R)
    Dec 14, 2016, 8:30am PST
  • Reply #3

    Thanks Admiral Ackbar...I mean BSwhite. The school district I work for is out after this Friday. Most districts around us are having school at least Monday and Tuesday.

    @bbh · BBH
    Dec 14, 2016, 8:36am PST
  • Reply #4

    Hmm, seems fine to me. Curious about not picking CB though HMMM

    @furiosa · Sir Julius
    Dec 14, 2016, 8:40am PST
  • Reply #5

    Interesting. I currently have 2 Sundays at the top of my lineup. I'm interested in your school argument, but is there any way of verifying if its true or not? Also, I don't see how less anticipation wouldn't push more money towards Sunday and away from Thurs/Fri

    @ari · Ari's Amphitheater of Moving Pictures
    Dec 14, 2016, 8:44am PST
  • Reply #6

    @Furiosa - isn't the BSA bar 25% usage? CB is just below that at the moment.

    Compelling points, BS. School schedules really do play heavily into this one. I haven't run my full numbers, but I am on-board as of right now.

    @backseatdirecting · BackseatDirecting
    Dec 14, 2016, 8:44am PST
  • Reply #7

    I thought it was 20% but he could have changed it recently. Anyways, I'm alright with it, Saturday has more value and Friday has the raw gross factor

    @furiosa · Sir Julius
    Dec 14, 2016, 8:47am PST
  • Reply #8

    Last year Deadline wrote that 74% of schools were off for TFA opening. I'm really curious about where they got that info, and how it compares to this week

    @ari · Ari's Amphitheater of Moving Pictures
    Dec 14, 2016, 9:17am PST
  • Reply #9

    Hate to rat out my SKYNET bretheren, but there's an implicit argument against one other interesting thing here, and that's the Manchester by the Sea bonus that I'd imagine a decent number of people are banking on. If you like that bonus, it's pretty hard to not trot out this lineup...

    R1 Sun x2/MbtS x4 (BP)/NA x1/Blank x1

    ... Which, I imagine, is exactly the lineup Ari is sitting on.

    Now, you can drive the Sunday value down quite a bit to end up with...

    R1 Sat x2/MbtS x1 (BP)/DS x1/HR x3/Blank x1

    ... And that's a lineup that can win a PC. But you have to drive R1 Sun down to a 22% decline Sat-to-Sun and bank on at least decent value for DS. It's possible BSW is considering that lineup, but I can't say for certain.

    @phils_phun_phlicks · Phil's Phun Phlicks!
    Dec 14, 2016, 9:27am PST
  • Reply #10

    Phil couldn't be more wrong. I never considered that lineup. I also just redid some calculations treating TFA as an outlier instead of a main comp, and I no longer have any Sundays in my lineup.

    Anyone have any info on how many schools are out this week?

    @ari · Ari's Amphitheater of Moving Pictures
    Dec 14, 2016, 9:30am PST
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