Awards Week 3 Bonus Bar & Contenders
Setting the bar at 120k. This exercise is not going to be extremely helpful this week, TC's, showtime numbers & R1 previews are way more important & could change everything by Friday.
TOP BP CONTENDERS
ROGUE ONE SAT | 54.2m (New) | Priced the most favorably out of the 3 days
COLLATERAL BEAUTY | 13m (New) | "Only" needs to achieve it's latest LRF to reach the bar
FANTASTIC BEASTS AND WHERE TO FIND THEM | 5.8m (-45%) | MJ2 only dropped 48% last year, FB is holding much better & facing lesser opposition
MANCHESTER BY THE SEA | 5.3m (69%) | Could work as counter-programming in many markets, needs a pta drop under 50%, which is not unprecedented (See EitS)
LA LA LAND | 5.2m (486%) | If you believe that a pta above 25k is in play, then it's definitely in the running
UPPER MID TIER
ROGUE ONE SUN | 48.4m (New) | Think we'll see a higher Sat to Sun drop than last year
MOANA | 10.8m (-42%) | Should hold to more theaters than GD & is not facing additional competition (Road Chip)
OFFICE CHRISTMAS PARTY | 8m (-52%) | This one could end up climbing a notch, since holiday comedies usually hold so well at this time of year, but I have a feeling that R1 is going to take most of its audience.
NOCTURNAL ANIMALS | 2m (-35%) | Assuming it doesn't lose any theaters
ROGUE ONE FRI | 93m (New) | Always Friday?
ARRIVAL | 3.2m (-42%) | The Martian didn't hold very well vs. SW last year
DOCTOR STRANGE | 2.3m (-50%) | TC's
HACKSAW RIDGE | 1.3m (-42%) | TC's
ALLIED | 1.9m (-51%) | TC's
TROLLS | 1.6m (-48%) | TC's (See Peanuts LY)
LAST WEEK REVIEW
- 60K ended up being about right, although most movies ended up below what I expected. First pass seems ok with the BP (when I got confirmation that the TC would end up above 700), the runner up & the 4th best value in BP contention.
- No Thursday update, holiday office party got in the way.
- Biggest misses were probably AC (didn't expect OCP to impact it that much) & MbtS (expected a lower theater count)
- Big learning during the week was not to trust specialty release websites with expansion information.
Juicy information.Dec 13, 2016, 7:57am PST
FB going up against Rogue One is "lesser opposition?" i think FB drops more than one might think.
i highly doubt Collateral Beauty clears 10 million.
this is a tough week. seems to me there are at least 3 viable lineups that could all be close. all depends on what one thinks the BP will be.Dec 13, 2016, 8:02am PST
They help to monitor but aren't final. Thanks for the list.Dec 13, 2016, 8:02am PST
Good stuff. I have Moana in the top tier as well, and am a little skeptical on Beasts, but I can't argue, the comps do show favor there.
I agree that it's a fool's errand to try to set a firm lineup just yet. I plan on mostly coasting until Thursday theater counts.Dec 13, 2016, 8:08am PST
Yep. Too many variables.Dec 13, 2016, 8:10am PST
Great stuff as always CCR. Thanks!Dec 13, 2016, 8:21am PST
@Alt 1985 - While some rules are meant to be broken, I don't think I'm betting against Will Smith opening under $10M anytime soon when he's NEVER had a movie open under $10M (that he starred in)...
This looks like in the mold of Pursuit of Happyness to me. I don't think it does THAT well, but it's there.
Regarding FB, I think the argument there is moreso everything else. Last year's holdovers were a bit stronger than this year.Dec 13, 2016, 8:23am PST
@Alternate1985 I agree that it sounds a bit crazy, but I don't think R1 is approaching 200m, which means that it should open at least 60m (25%) below SW, which is not insignificant.Dec 13, 2016, 8:23am PST
I'm with CCR. The buzz is not nearly as high and the theatres aren't staying open all night. I think 165-170 is the highest it can get to so I have 70mil/53mil/42mil as my split (I'm still playing with those numbers so don't use verbatim). You can probably guess what I'm playing based on those numbers but I'll be watching Thursday preview numbers very closely.Dec 13, 2016, 9:01am PST
@Phil, CCR -- i just think FB will lose most of its audience to RO so it will have a bigger drop than posted above. even though the holdovers are not as strong this year, RO will be a big enough draw to hurt FB's bp chances more than some other options.
as for CB, you may be right and it will do over $10. i am not confident it will be the choice of enough people to be the BP. if does do well enough to get BP, then the play this week is 8x of that film isn't it? my gut says that is not gonna happen.
in my opinion, this week BP comes down to Moana or La La Land or....maybe Nocturnal Animals. whatever one decides there determines which RO to use. i have, however, been spot on the last two weeks so i am likely due for a big fall. hahaDec 13, 2016, 9:09am PSTEdited