Thursday Fandango Check - Awards Week 2
Ok, time to see how showtimes are shaping up for the Nielsen Top 40+1 markets. Data table is below...
And now, below, I present the FSS gross/show that you'll need to expect to in order for a movie to win the bonus. I get a lot of questions how I derive this, so here's a quick primer on how I calc this...
- Total showtimes are set equal to [Shows/Theater] observed in the top 40+1 multiplied by the total number of theaters showing found on BOMojo and then slightly reduced to account for the fact that many theaters in the top 40+1 have far more screens than theaters in smaller areas. This factor ranges from 70%-98% and depends on the shows/theater.
- If the theater count is known at the time of this writing, I use that theater count as the national number. If not, I take the observed theater change in the top 40+1 data and apply it to the national number with some adjustment based on how the Top 40+1 week over week dropped compared to the national drop. If the theater count is not known and it's a platform release expanding, I assume the Top 40+1 represents 40% of the total locations (based off past observation).
- BO Receipts are set equal whatever receipts a movie needs to beat the projected bonus winner per FML Nerd's model.
- For new releases, Thursday nights are ignored since not all locations show Thursday previews. That means I have to make a bit of a guess at how much of the take we can expect from Thursday night for new movies, and then I exclude it. For the sake of transparency, I'll start including my Thursday night gross guess as well.
Bonus Bar this week is... Supposed to be Bad Santa around $56k. But, I don't buy it. I'm using $70k. It'll make sense in a minute.
Movie | Gross/show | Change from LW | Thursday Gross
Moana | $353/show |7.6%
Office Christmas Party | $434/show |DEBUT | $1.5M Thursday
Fantastic Beasts | $223/show |-0.9%
Arrival | $183/show |-2.5%
Miss Sloane | $330/show |DEBUT
Allied | $151/show |-11.2%
Doctor Strange | $159/show |-3.3%
Manchester By The Sea | $692/show |-20.8%
Trolls | $120/show |10.2%
Hacksaw Ridge | $148/show |13.4%
Nocturnal Animals | $150/show |DEBUT
Bad Santa 2 | $117/show |35.0%
Almost Christmas | $130/show |-3.0%
Incarnate | $88/show |-6.0%
The Edge of Seventeen | $160/show |70.9%
- 57k shows for OCP is about 1k more than Sausage Party. It pretty much needs Central Intelligence ($429/show) numbers to be viable.
- 16k shows for Nocturnal Animals' expansion. $150/show isn't very much either and the reason I went with a $70k bonus bar here. This number is just slightly lower than the per show take for Moonlight in its big expansion weekend ($164/show).
- UPDATED above with MbtS numbers. All the sudden that sneaky play is probably gonzo.
- Fantastic Beasts losing shows faster than theaters, but at 6 showings/location, there's no reason to ring the alarm here.
- Looks like Bad Santa 2 and lower might be the cutoff line for "perhaps lost too much volume for consideration."
Love That Philbert!Dec 8, 2016, 9:43am PST
Thanks as alway Phil.Dec 8, 2016, 9:44am PST
Oooo putting Manchester by the Sea up there as a bold pick. Love it. Completely agree with the higher bonus bar. Thanks Phil!Dec 8, 2016, 9:48am PST
That per show average for NA is an insanely low bar to meet.Dec 8, 2016, 9:50am PSTEdited
News I can use! Thanks, PhilDec 8, 2016, 9:51am PST
According to Exhibitor Relations, Manchester is expanding to 368 theaters this weekend https://twitter.com/ercboxoffice/status/806877291091365888Dec 8, 2016, 9:55am PST
Was about to say the same as Furiosa.Dec 8, 2016, 10:11am PSTEdited
MbtS, really interesting, but probably not enoughDec 8, 2016, 10:17am PST
Thanks for the MtbS update! Updated above to reflect that change.Dec 8, 2016, 10:23am PST
Just to show how little I've thought about it, I didn't even comment on Miss Sloane. So...
21k shows for Miss Sloane is about 500 less than Florence Foster Jenkins. FFJ grossed around $300/show, so MS will need to beat that by 10% to merit bonus consideration.Dec 9, 2016, 6:10am PST