BSA - Awards Season Week 2: "You Down On OCP...Yeah Just Like B!"

@bswhite · BSwhite 1970's Discoplex
Dec 7, 2016, 8:54am PST

Good Wednesday all, BS here with your Awards Season Week 2 BSA! First, a recap of last week's BSA, which saw a successful advisory against Trolls. Trolls was not even close to being in the BP conversation, and the PC chances it might have entertained, also went by the wayside. This brings the overall success rate of the BSA up to 50 for 57 (87.72%), as the BSA continues to shine as a standard bearer for the FML community!


Moving on to week 2, and this week the BSA takes on the #1 played movie:


OFFICE CHRISTMAS PARTY


A bold BSA, to say the least! Currently, almost 2/3 of FML is down with OCP. Well, BS is here to tell you why you need to be DOWN ON OCP! I've got a squad with a list of complainers, https://youtu.be/6VpZk9dGXGA so let's take a looksie!


REVIEWS: Ahh, my favorite, the review embargo....where are you David? David? There you are! https://youtu.be/i3MXiTeH_Pg - So, no Rotten Tomatoes score in yet for OCP, and the few reviews that have trickled out are not glowing in nature. A lot of use of the words "contrived" and "forced" in those reviews. Mediocre reviews will not expand the audience this weekend.


TIME OF YEAR/RELEASE DATE: You would think that this wouldn't be a negative, but I believe the release date for OCP limits the opening weekend potential. In looking back at recent openers for the 2nd weekend of December, we've got the following:


2015 - In The Heart Of The Sea - $11.05 Mil
2014 - Exodus Gods and Kings - $24.11 Mil
2013 - Madea Christmas - $16.00 Mil
2011 - New Year's Eve - $13.02 Mil
2011 - The Sitter - $9.85 Mil


Note: I did not include any of The Hobbit movies, as those were part of a much larger franchise. So, what we see here with the movies above is a range of $10-$24 Mil. The one that looks good to me is the Madea opening of $16 mil. That's where our minds should be on the OCP opening.


R RATED HOLIDAY THEMED MOVIES: We've got some recent entries in the R Rated Holiday themed movies to use as comps.
Bad Santa 2
The Night Before
In both instances, we can say that neither had overperforming opening weekends. Bad Santa only opened to a $6+ mil 3-day weekend, and The Night Before couldn't quite make it to a $10 mil opening. Now, I do think that OCP bests both of those openings by a fair amount, but in order for you to consider it for BP, it would need to more than double the opening of The Night Before. That's an awful lot to ask.


LEGS: No, not Jennifer Anniston's legs in OCP, but the legs of the movie itself. For OCP, that relates to a so-so opening, but having decent legs throughout the rest of the month, into the New Year. So, I expect OCP to leg out a minimum 4x multiplier off of its opening weekend. The Night Before was able to leg out to a 4.35 multiplier.


STAR WARS EFFECT: Finally, we come to my "X" factor, the Star Wars effect. Last year we saw the overall Box Office drop by over 20% from the previous week (week after Thanksgiving), to a low number of under $70 Mil (top 12 grossing movies). Now, Rogue One isn't going to be near the juggernaut that Force Awakens was, but it will still have a huge weekend coming up next week. That being said, many moviegoers will stay home this weekend, as they gear up for a busy holiday moviegoing time, beginning NEXT WEEKEND!


BOTTOM LINE: While OCP will have a decent theatrical run, don't expect the opening weekend to overperform. SO, FMLverse - Who's with me? YOU DOWN ON OCP?!? JUST LIKE B?!? As always, good luck!
https://youtu.be/6xGuGSDsDrM

21 Replies

  • Reply #1

    Currently, 63.5% of FML is down with OCP..... ewwww!

    @bswhite · BSwhite 1970's Discoplex
    Dec 7, 2016, 9:19am PST
  • Reply #2

    Your boldest BSA to date.

    @askdablkdude · " I know a guy who know a guy" (KOTRT)
    Dec 7, 2016, 9:27am PST
  • Reply #3
    @askdablkdude · " I know a guy who know a guy" (KOTRT)
    Dec 7, 2016, 9:27am PST
  • Reply #4

    my thoughts pretty much exactly.

    @legitalt1985 · The Legit Alternate 1985
    Dec 7, 2016, 10:05am PST
  • Reply #5

    I like the headline name here!


    OCP I struggle with. Reviews are trickling out and they're... not disasterous. They're right around your Daddy's Homes of the world, so I think that at least keeps it in play.


    Timing is actually one of the things I like here - unlike The Night Before last year, it has the weekend all to itself, while TNB had to share with Mockingjay 2.


    Also not sure I buy "The Star Wars Effect" either. If In The Heart of the Sea doesn't totally crap the bed that weekend last year, the overall weekend doesn't look as stupid. Just eyeballing this weekend last year to the year before, Heart vs Exodus is the only glaring difference I see.


    http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?view=&yr=2015&wknd=50&p=.htm
    http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?view=&yr=2014&wknd=50&p=.htm


    In short, I'm not on board right now. Bold shot to call it this early, but the evidence isn't quite there yet.

    @phils_phun_phlicks · Phil's Phun Phlicks!
    Dec 7, 2016, 10:28am PSTEdited
  • Reply #6

    @BS I'm very surprised you're calling OCP DOA so early while simultaneously championing Nocturnal Animals. It is bold to say the least, I expected an Eo17 BSA. Good on ya.

    @backseatdirecting · BackseatDirecting
    Dec 7, 2016, 10:31am PST
  • Reply #7

    Yep, there is the hairy chested man-beast saying "F*** you, OCP!"


    Very nice, BS! ;-)

    @faster · Faster (R)
    Dec 7, 2016, 10:44am PST
  • Reply #8

    The reviews are fine enough for a comedy. It's full of stars. It's Christmas.


    Also, I don't think this weekend is what causes all the poor performances on the same weekend prior years. I highly doubt any of the movies you listed would have opened any higher on any other weekend.


    And I see what you mean by the Star Wars Effect in theory, but this is a totally different movie targeting different audiences. It's like Sisters in a way, but it doesn't even have to face Star Wars in its first week, and it has a boost due to being a Christmas movie.


    As shown by The Force Awakens, a movie can open big and still show great legs, so pointing that out doesn't really do much for us.


    The Night Before is certainly a comp that brings hesitation, but we'll see. It opened against Mockingjay Part 2, which is much more competition than this current weekend will give. Plus, it's a different weekend, which can absolutely make a difference when it comes to seasonally themed movies.


    Bad Santa 2 is irrelevant, it was a sequel that no one asked for. Can we please use sequels that no one asked for as comps for exclusively other sequels that no one asked for?


    Definitely your boldest BSA in a long time.

    @user3g8gn4 · Lafond: Covenant
    Dec 7, 2016, 11:48am PST
  • Reply #9

    I'm with you 100% BS

    @user3k7ja2 · Milk Was A Bad Choice
    Dec 7, 2016, 12:33pm PST
  • Reply #10

    I'm with BS as well. I think OCP is going to underperform. They're trying too hard with the marketing and it doesn't even look that funny to me.

    @jdd0815 · •D•A•S•H• Cineplex (R)
    Dec 7, 2016, 12:57pm PST
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