Awards Week 2 Bonus Bar & Contenders

@ccr · CCR
Dec 6, 2016, 8:08am PSTEdited

Setting the bar at 60k in what should be another low scoring weekend. I'll be treating Miss Sloane as a new release.


TOP BP CONTENDERS


FANTASTIC BEASTS AND WHERE TO FIND THEM | 12.1m (-35%) | This one is probably the closest comp to how it has performed so far (which makes sense).


http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=harrypotter.htm


DOCTOR STRANGE | 4.6m (-29%) | See Spectre. As for the Thor comp, that was really impacted by Hobbit, so it really doesn't work this week.
TROLLS | 3.4m (-27%) | See The Peanuts Movie & BH6
NOCTURNAL ANIMALS | 2.2m (215%) | It is by far the BP favorite, but I'm not sure it's the lock that most people are assuming
ALMOST CHRISTMAS | 1.6m (-35%) | People will naturally gravitate to the Love the Coopers comp, which I don't really think is very valid. The problem is that Best Man Holiday was really impacted by Madea this weekend & This Christmas by The Perfect Holiday, so there are no good comps to use & we're flying a bit blind. It's still priced at a really reasonable enough level to where if it keeps enough theaters it should very much be in contention.


UPPER MID TIER


ARRIVAL | 5.9m (-19%)
ALLIED | 5.1m (-28%)
HACKSAW RIDGE | 2.6m (-22%)


Seems like they were priced at low of a drop, but we saw last year how this week is not really "normal". It's definitely possible for any of these group to surprise & end up stealing the BP. Keep a close eye on TC's & daily numbers.


http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2015&wknd=50&p=.htm


ANCHORS


MOANA | 22.9m (-19%)
OFFICE CHRISTMAS PARTY | 22.8m (New)


One of the biggest questions of the week, they are priced at the same level, so which one you choose will have a big impact on your week. Have your Thursday previews multipliers & % ready because they'll be key this week.


MID TIER


INCARNATE | 1.3m (-50%) | Friday to Saturday increase & lack of competition makes me think this one shouldn't crater, but priced too high to contend
THE EDGE OF SEVENTEEN | 1.2m (-28%) | Seems like the most likely to take a decent TC loss


WP CONTENDER


MISS SLOANE | 5.8m (New) | 3K pta is my ceiling & that doesn't even put it close to the BP race. A scenario like the one below is not out of the question


http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=truth.htm


MANCHESTER BY THE SEA | 3.5m (50%) | If my 200-250 TC estimate ends up being right then this one was again priced out of contention despite another outstanding pta hold.
BAD SANTA 2 | 2.1m (-36%) | Direct competition coming from OCP


LAST WEEK REVIEW

  • 55K ended up being about right (57k would have been right on point). First pass seems ok with the BP, the runner up & the 4th best value in BP contention. Definitely overvalued Incarnate & undervalued Arrival (that was before the TC came out). If only I had listened to my initial advice!
  • Thursday update was a bit worse, pegging the 3 of the top 4 values, but dropping the BP down a notch (this was due to the daily performance) & continuing to push Incarnate despite a lot of evidence against it.
  • I had two glaring misses during the week, MbtS & Incarnate, the first one had an otherworldly hold which was really difficult to predict, the latter just was a miss on my part (overvaluing previous performance of horror movies in the same weekend, as well as comping it to The Darkness)

33 Replies

  • Reply #1

    Thanks CCR! As usual, these are excellent.


    My thoughts:

    • I agree with your BP contenders list. I have Arrival up there too, personally, though I'm not sure I have any hard data to support it. Just a gut feeling after it's been holding so well. Trolls, Beasts, and Strange are all in my strong contenders bin.
    • Completely agree with your take on Almost Christmas. I think Love the Coopers is not a great comp, but it's priced ok and won't lose screens.
    • I expect Eo17 to be a WP contender after theater counts on Thursday.
    • The pricing was extremely conservative on all of the smaller releases. Unless Nocturnal Animals gets a crazy expansion, I don't see any of them being a consideration.
    @backseatdirecting · BackseatDirecting
    Dec 6, 2016, 8:22am PST
  • Reply #2

    @Backseat Understand your Arrival point, but it was priced pretty aggressively. Still need to figure out if 2015 was an outlier in terms of the low drops by the holdovers (Martian at only 9%) or if it's something we could see a repeat of this year. Until I don't figure that out, I can't bump any of the three to the BP contention group.

    @ccr · CCR
    Dec 6, 2016, 8:28am PST
  • Reply #3

    Does anyone have a link to last week's bonus bar thread? I tried googling it with various search terms but it never came up.


    edit: found it. https://fantasymovieleague.com/chatter/topiccomments?boardId=leaders&prevOffset=61&topicId=160366


    It isn't important but I was just curious. I'll leave the link in this post in case anyone else needs it. (I was wondering if Eo17 was named as a top contender - it was)

    @concessions · Concessions
    Dec 6, 2016, 8:30am PSTEdited
  • Reply #4
    @ccr · CCR
    Dec 6, 2016, 8:35am PST
  • Reply #5

    You all are crazy, nocturnal animals will make at least 4 million clear bp. If my small city of 70,000 people will get it it has to open to at least 750 if not over 1000 screens

    @azzkicker · A$$ Kicker
    Dec 6, 2016, 8:41am PST
  • Reply #6

    @I know all Your name seems to suit you very well.


    http://www.focusfeatures.com/nocturnalanimals/theaters


    Here's is where I got my estimate from, it's very possible it ends up incorrect (Those pages are sometimes not refeshed constantly), but for the now, it's the best I've got.

    @ccr · CCR
    Dec 6, 2016, 8:49am PSTEdited
  • Reply #7

    @I know all - I admit, I am starting to wonder just how big an expansion it's going to get. It would take close to 1000 theaters for me to consider it, but that's not impossible. The best examples I found from Focus Features:


    http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=tinkertailorsoldierspy.htm
    http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=placebeyondthepines.htm


    Problem is, both of those had significantly higher PTAs before expansion...

    @backseatdirecting · BackseatDirecting
    Dec 6, 2016, 8:49am PST
  • Reply #8

    @ I Know All:


    Theater count will almost certainly be below 500 and likely closer to 400-420.

    @jordan · Jordan Michael B. (R)
    Dec 6, 2016, 8:53am PST
  • Reply #9

    When will we know the NA theater #?

    @dead_et · Dead ET's Drive-In (R)
    Dec 6, 2016, 8:59am PST
  • Reply #10

    Possibly as early as today, if Deadline reports on it.

    @backseatdirecting · BackseatDirecting
    Dec 6, 2016, 9:01am PST
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