SKYNET Strikes First - Awards Week 1

@user2rarz3 · M37: And like that *poof* he's gone ...
Dec 2, 2016, 9:04am PST

Obligatory Weekly Video:

As promised, here is your Friday post screen lock weekly update. What promise, you ask?

Post Thanksgiving is the doldrums of the film world; the focus of the country shifts to holiday shopping, and the following the boom of the prior weekend, we see a huge drop off for the top 12 films:
2015: -57% (removing Krampus)
2014: -54.7%
2013: -55.6%

Last weekend, the top 12 grossed $173.9 million; if your projections for the top 12 films add up to more than $80 million, you're too high on something (or everything).

To the 17% of you screening Incarnate…

I've seen this comment more than once this week, so I'll restate my prior rebuff: if you are comparing how two films of varying genres are performing on the weekdays and using fact as justification for expecting one to outperformer the other for the weekend…

In poker, when you're opponent goes all-in, you can either CALL and push all of your chips to the middle of the table, or FOLD. Well, the FML Pricing Gurus have gone all in, and forced us players to make that choice. Not going to lie, have the BP race pretty tight… but if you don't have 7 screens of something in your lineup, likely not holding the best hand when the flop comes.

With nothing new really entering the market, the daily patterns should give us a pretty good idea of what to expect for the weekend. My Top 5 (in order):

-Bad Santa 2 [See Night Before or Horrible Bosses 2]
-Allied [See Homefront or Australia]
-Arrival [See Interstellar, plus Theater Count increase, though effect is likely overstated*]
-Moana [See Tangled, but daily numbers here have been very high for genre]
-Edge of 17 [Pricing gave it a low bar, but not impressed with the daily numbers]

For those of you that folded and played a hedge, the popular Moana/Allied/Eo17 lineup, is fine, though I would have recommended Moana / 2 Allied / 3 Bad Santa / Eo17 / Rules (or Moonlight)

50 Replies

  • Reply #1

    And Since no one reallly pays attention to the Prediction Competition, here are my numbers for the weekend:

    Moana $24,700,000 -56.4%
    Fantastic Beasts $17,200,000 -61.8%
    Doctor Strange $6,200,000 -54.9%
    Arrival $6,000,000 -47.6%
    Allied $6,300,000 -50.4%
    Trolls $4,400,000 -58.7%
    Hacksaw Ridge $2,900,000 -47.5%
    Bad Santa 2 $3,350,000 -45.8%
    Incarnate $1,700,000 NEW
    Almost Christmas $2,000,000 -64.9%
    Manchester by the Sea $1,500,000 +22.4%
    The Edge of Seventeen $1,300,000 -56.2%
    Loving $1,050,000 -38.1%
    Rules Don't Apply $700,000 -56.0%
    Moonlight (2016) $710,000 -41.8%

    @user2rarz3 · M37: And like that *poof* he's gone ...
    Dec 2, 2016, 9:05am PST
  • Reply #2

    Right on, thanks M, great write up

    @pattern · The Last Pattern (IOU)
    Dec 2, 2016, 9:09am PST
  • Reply #3

    I have Moana as my top pick for BP so I had to stick to that try to maximize my BO. I thought about the 7xBS2 play, but felt I was leaving too much on the table since I don't believe it to be BP. My inability this week to pick Arrival or Allied will cost me any shot at a PC. I felt they were too close, and while I had Arrival by less than $100K that wasn't worth a second screen over losing Eof17 to Loving....

    @hmg · Hoosier Movie Guy
    Dec 2, 2016, 9:10am PST
  • Reply #4

    Bad Santa 2 gave me a lot of pause this morning, but I just couldn't pull the trigger. This week will be close enough that most lineups will still be withing $15 million of the PC.

    @misterdave · MisterDave
    Dec 2, 2016, 9:11am PST
  • Reply #5

    Well Moana may or may not come 3 mil above your projection there, but that remains to be seen. Enjoy the weekend!

    @furiosa · Sir Julius
    Dec 2, 2016, 9:13am PST
  • Reply #6

    Furiousa - based on the dailies, I wouldn't be surprised if it had a crazy Disney 50% hold or better. That's why I liked the BS2 play over Allied, since I get Moana at the top instead of Trolls at the bottom.

    @user2rarz3 · M37: And like that *poof* he's gone ...
    Dec 2, 2016, 9:15am PST
  • Reply #7

    Just curious, why does Bad Santa 2 hold well, but Almost Christmas fall bad?

    Also, how confident are you in that harsh Moana drop seeing as its dailies matched/exceeded those of Frozen's.

    @user3g8gn4 · Lafond: Covenant
    Dec 2, 2016, 9:16am PST
  • Reply #8

    Agreed, couldn't really get behind 7xAllied after seeing how Moana was doing

    @furiosa · Sir Julius
    Dec 2, 2016, 9:17am PST
  • Reply #9

    Bad Santa is performing essentially the same as Night Before did, and that dropped only 40%. Plus, Santa is gaining theaters while Night dropped 5.6%. Of's also reviewed worse, and is in its 2nd week compared to Night's 3rd. I have that adding up to pretty much the same as Mem...but still not BP. It's a smart gamble, though.

    @dylan · Biff
    Dec 2, 2016, 9:19am PST
  • Reply #10

    Phil and I went the alt route, with the 7x HR play. It was a lot closer for he and I, in the race between BS2 and HR.

    I agree that a 7x play of something makes up the PC this week.

    @bswhite · BSwhite 1970's Discoplex
    Dec 2, 2016, 9:20am PST
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