Awards Season Preview

@user2rarz3 · M37: And like that *poof* he's gone ...
Nov 23, 2016, 1:32pm PSTEdited

As we wrap up the Fall Season, here is a quick look at what is in store for the next season: Awards Season. In FML's brief history, this season proved to be BY FAR the most complicated, as the time frame encompasses 5 major holidays that impact the weekend box office. In addition, the name is apt, as we have Golden Globe nominations and winners, followed by Oscar nominations and culminating in the final weekend matching up with the Oscar ceremony. That also means we'll see more of those pesky expansions to coincide with the nominations and award winners.

Here is a week by week look at what is in store:

1) DEC 2nd - Having a hard time trying to figure out how films will fare with the holiday this weekend? Next week, you have to determine how to back out all of that extra holiday revenue in the post Thanksgiving/Black Friday weekend
2) DEC 9th - Normal weekend! Enjoy it :-) Of course, last year we had one of the least used BP winners in FML history on this same week ...
3) DEC 16th - Rogue One opens, and likely we see our first Daily Split of the season. Also, Golden Globe nominations are announced on the prior Monday.
4) DEC 23rd (4 day) - Now that everyone is warmed up, the fun really begins, as we have both Christmas Eve (bad) and Christmas Day (good), plus a four day weekend in which some films may be opening or expanding on Sunday and so only have 2 days worth of full showings to compete. Possibly the Daily Split may be carried over for another week, but does it go by 4 days or maybe 2 (Fri/Sat and Sun/Mon) each?
5) DEC 30th (4 day
) - Was last weekend fun? Then let's do it again! Another holiday weekend on the heels of the prior one
6) JAN 6th - Nothing special this weekend, though we have project the extent of the market correction from the prior two weeks of holidays. Oh, and the Golden Globe ceremony is on Sunday this weekend
7) JAN 13th (4 day) - The roller coaster continues, as we have yet another 4 day holiday weekend
8) JAN 20th - Hopefully you spent the extra time off in week 7 figuring out how to adjust for the holiday! In addition, President Elect Trump is scheduled to be sworn in on Friday.
9) JAN 27th - A normal weekend, except ... Oscar Nominations are announced on the Tuesday before, and those basking in the glow of admiration will likely see a bump. Also, 4 new films are scheduled to open this weekend as well, just for fun
10) FEB 3rd - Rumor has it that there is some kind of big Sportsball game on Sunday ;-)
11) FEB 10th - Apparently that rumor was indeed true, and I guess a lot of people watched? Whatever. Wonder if that impacted movie ticket sales last weekend? Hmm. Also, the greeting card & candy industries favorite holiday is on the upcoming Tuesday - does that mean more people are inclined to have a movie "date night" over the weekend?
12) FEB 17th (4 day) - Another holiday? Does anyone work a full week anymore? Sheesh!
13) FEB 24th - Gotta figure out how to adjust for last weekend's holiday (we should be pretty good at it by now). Also, Academy Awards are on Sunday night.

Simple, right? Who's ready?!?! And this list assumes we don't run into a week that has a major snowstorm that shuts down a good portion of the NE and/or East coast (as was the case in January last year).

So if you're bored with the standard FML week, and really enjoy projecting grosses not just for the weekend, but day by day and making adjustments for varying factors on the week before, then you're going to love Awards Season! If not, then perhaps you should ask Santa for a Dartboard to help pick your weekly lineups.

  • = Not currently listed as 4 day holidays per the FML rules, but based on how figures were reported in prior years when Christmas and New Years fell on a Sunday, I am expecting that to be announced sometime soon.

36 Replies

  • Reply #1

    Just reading that was exhausting. Thanks M37.... I'm going to go take a nap.

    @phils_phun_phlicks · Phil's Phun Phlicks!
    Nov 23, 2016, 1:38pm PST
  • Reply #2

    It's gonna be great. Almost Christmas for BP !

    @anepicmoviereviewer · Anepicmoviereviewer Cineplex (R)
    Nov 23, 2016, 3:00pm PST
  • Reply #3

    I like that we begin (well, close to the beginning) with Rogue One, and then end with Lego Batman.

    This season started off a nightmare for me last year, but I finished strong for my first top 100 finish.

    @honest_ray · Honest Ray's Cinematorium and Buffeteria
    Nov 23, 2016, 3:08pm PST
  • Reply #4

    So possibly one of the hardest season ever. 3 out of 4 week are possible 4 day weekends. To add to your regular big draw movies. You got all the award movies. It gonna be a bloodbath and no one is getting out of it unshaved.

    @askdablkdude · " I know a guy who know a guy" (KOTRT)
    Nov 23, 2016, 4:07pm PST
  • Reply #5

    Yet last Awards Season was my highest finish yet. This summer was close but the last few weeks weren't perfect.

    @anepicmoviereviewer · Anepicmoviereviewer Cineplex (R)
    Nov 23, 2016, 4:25pm PST
  • Reply #6

    I'm already done with awards season and it hasn't even started yet.

    @user3g8gn4 · Lafond: Covenant
    Nov 24, 2016, 3:12am PST
  • Reply #7

    My first Awards Season ever, how different can it be huh?

    @user3gq99x · Groundhog Jay's Cineplex
    Nov 24, 2016, 1:12pm PST
  • Reply #8

    Dreams will be crushed

    @furiosa · Sir Julius
    Nov 24, 2016, 1:20pm PST
  • Reply #9

    It's odd.

    @anepicmoviereviewer · Anepicmoviereviewer Cineplex (R)
    Nov 24, 2016, 1:24pm PST
  • Reply #10

    Not only you need to know about the main movies. Art house movies play an even better role. I like to think I'm pretty good in this game. But last award season humbled me to say the least.

    @askdablkdude · " I know a guy who know a guy" (KOTRT)
    Nov 24, 2016, 1:41pm PST
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