BSA Fall Week 9: "You're Out Of Touch, You're Out Of Reach!"
Good Wednesday all, BS here with your Fall, Week 9 BSA! First, a recap of last week's BSA which saw us get back into the win column, after a rough 2 week stretch. I have a special place in the BSA Hall Of Fame for any movie with "Jones" in the title. It's been a BSA cash cow, first with Free State of Jones, and now with Keeping Up With The Joneses! With last week's successful BSA, our overall record stands at 41 for 48 (85.42%). Moving on to Fall Week 9, and this one is difficult, as there weren't many movies which met BSA criteria. But, after further review, we've found one! So, for Week 9, the BSA advises against:
JACK REACHER 2
Jack Reacher is currently being screened by about 1/3 of all FML. You can screen it 5x, and probably feel confident in a high floor for your Cineplex this week. But we're about advising against movies that WON'T make up that elusive PC. And, I just don't see Jack Reacher being a part of it this week. Here's what I'm looking at:
COMPETITION: Folks, it has been an absolute bloodbath for Adult movies this Fall. Week after week, there has seemingly been a new movie aimed squarely at this audience. This week we have Inferno opening, and that will provide new competition for Jack Reacher. Add in the continued competition from The Accountant, GotT, and even residual competition from Deepwater Horizon, Magnificent Seven, and Sully. Combined together, and I don't see JR2 having a great 2nd weekend hold.
WORLD SERIES: This is a spin-off from the competition note above. World Series Games 3, 4 and 5 are Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, respectively. The audience tuning in to the WS overlaps a lot of the same audience that would go see JR2. So, again, another factor working against a strong hold.
REVIEWS/WOM: Reviews and Word of Mouth have been tepid for JR2. Not a great sign if you're looking for a potential 10 mil in additional BP $$.
THIS SPECIFIC WEEKEND: Finally, a note specifically about this coming weekend. It was pointed out in another thread that the last time the same dates fell on this weekend was 2011. On that same weekend in 2011, ONLY (3) of the top (15) movies had drops of less than 45%. Many of the other movies had drops 50% or greater. So, something else to consider, as Halloween is on Monday, yet many people have Halloween activities this weekend.
BOTTOM LINE: Jack Reacher 2 may seem like a safe play this weekend, especially for those who got burned by Ouija, however, it's NOT going to be the BP, and I'm also saying it won't be a part of the PC. For those who want the big bucks, stay out of Jack's reach! As always, good luck!
Mr White, combatting against Metratron's Musings is my job! Argh. Lots to think about this weekOct 26, 2016, 8:51am PDT
I think I agree here BUT be very careful with that 2011 comp. extremely small drops the following weekend means that the box office was hurt, and that may actually have more to do with a northeast blizzard than with Halloween weekend
2012 seems to be a better comp, even though Halloween was on that Wednesday rather than Monday, a lot of movies had stronger holdsOct 26, 2016, 9:01am PDT
This is interesting, because even though I agree that JR probably won't win the BP, there were some scenarios I ran where JR had a drop in the low 50s and was still part of the PC. Assuming a certain movie I have in mind gets the BP.
So this is definitely going to be an interesting BSA this week.Oct 26, 2016, 9:06am PDT
Oct 26, 2016, 9:09am PDT
Nice! Earlier today I was thinking you were gonna do one for Inferno. Jack's not in my lineup!Oct 26, 2016, 9:10am PDT
@AG - Well, Inferno won't be the BP, but it could be in the PC.........Oct 26, 2016, 10:03am PDT
And, listen, I know I may be a Dinosaur here, but c'mon...no one jumped in with my title play on Hall and Oates?!?Oct 26, 2016, 10:05am PDT
I'm pretty sure you and I are thinking along the same lines at the moment.Oct 26, 2016, 10:13am PDT
You're outta time BS. See what I did there? Daryl and John would be proud of you reference.Oct 26, 2016, 10:32am PDTEdited
This one carries a little bit of risk if you ask me. While I really doubt JR is a BP contender, the top level of the PC lineup is a total crapshoot right now. BSW's World Series note affects a lot of those top movies - Inferno & The Accountant could all go low as a result.
Additionally, both Madea & Ouija got priced for a pretty small drop when compared to the rest of the series and/or genre in both cases. I have big doubts any of the top 5 are your BP this week.
So if one of these smaller fillers jumps up just enough to steal the BP, everything above it could just fall into place in odd ways. Like BSW alluded to, Inferno could very easily fall into the PC just by sheer volume - the same thing happened in Summer Week 1 when X-Men: Apocalypse made the PC despite being an awful play in terms of value.
I've been pretty quiet this week b/c I just hate every option this week. I think almost every movie on the slate has been in my lineup at some point this week. It didn't really matter what BSW posted, I was going to be skeptical. All I can garner from this is that BSW must have something he likes as an anchor, and if the World Series is a deterrent, it's probably Madea or Ouija.Oct 26, 2016, 10:45am PDT