Fall Week 7 Bonus Bar
Pinch-hitting for CCR this week at his request.
Let's set the bonus bar this week at a WOW THAT'S LOW $55k.
The Accountant - $20.1M
That doesn't seem very high, does it? This seems like the obvious comp here...
Same weekend, same theater count, same star, same sort of subject matter. Prior to winning the Oscar for Best Picture, Argo always felt like a tough sell to me. It's a hard movie to explain in a trailer. The Accountant is... also not too easy to explain. Acct is going to be a tricky one, b/c it does have that Gone Girl mystery vibe and upside ($37M)... as long as it reviews well. I don't see anything having the ceiling something like Acct has, so I wouldn't blame anyone for punting this week, taking Acct x2, and just waiting for November when the real bucks start rolling in.
Kevin Hart: What Now? - $15.7M
What Now indeed. This is Hart's third foray into a stand-up movie. The first two did gangbusters on a PTA basis…
Now, I somehow doubt in 2500 theaters that Hart gets a $10k+ PTA, but he only needs about $6k to make the 3x play worth it. Really not a lot to comp to here, so this is a gut call.
Max Steel - $4.7M
A movie releasing in October in under 2500 theaters based on an obscure toy property? Why does this sound familiar?!
Priceless - $1.9M
Your guess is as good as mine here. No reviews yet, but every bit of research I've done suggests it's going to play to the Christian crowd. Here's your "I don't feel great about this one" comp…
Holdovers - The Contenders
Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children - $9.6M (-36.8%)
MP keeps the PG-13 market mostly to itself for a third weekend. There's a nice track record of movies that keep this market to themselves:
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=jackthegiantkiller.htm (did have week 2 competition)
Or, it just plays like most middling YA movies…
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=5thwave.htm (week 2 screwy - thanks Winter Storm Jonas)
Deepwater Horizon - $7.9m (-31.8%)
The big question here is how much does Acct eat into its audience. It posted a pretty surprisingly big drop in its 2nd weekend given the reviews. I could see a nice rebound this week, or another shellacking thanks to more competition.
Middle School - $4.1m (-40.8%)
Family movies never drop much in the fall. If it plays like Alexander and the Really Long Title, it's in the mix.
Alexander had semi-direct week 2 competition from The Book Of Life, which is what MS faces against Max Steel. Now, what is not helping MS is that it isn't it isn't as well-known as Alexander, leaving this one as a toss-up. At worst, I think it's a mid-level filler that doesn't kill you this weekend.
The Girl on the Train - $16.7m (-31.9%)
It can go one of two ways. It can play like a movie based on a popular book that the audience didn't care for…
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=fiftyshadesofgrey.htm (extreme example, but you get the idea)
Or a movie that caters to older women and they see it when they see it.
Neither scenario inspires much confidence.
The Birth of a Nation - $4.2m (-39.5%)
Man, that's a big drop for a movie that reviewed so well. 60% of the opening weekend audience was African American, and there's now direct competition in that market in the form of Kevin Hart. I think you can make a case that the strong WOM carries it for a weekend, but I don't know how much it matters given the clear signs of rejection from the awards crowd based on Parker's presence.
Watch the Counts (Theater Counts that is)
The Magnificent Seven - $5.8m (-35.3%)
Storks - $5.8m (-30.4%)
It's a weird weekend with no significant dead weight in the market save Masterminds and maaaaybe Sully. With three new wide releases, one of these two, maybe both, are looking at a precipitous theater drop in the 750 range. I think both lose at least 600 theaters. Of the two, Storks seems like the most likely to hold given that it retains the animated market all to itself for another two weeks.
Queen of Katwe - $1.1m (-32.4%)
It held pretty well in its second wide release weekend. How many theaters will be willing to hang on to it with another family option and AA option hitting the market? I think it makes sense as a potential low end filler with a small theater loss. If it loses no volume though, it enters the BP discussion.
Sully - $3.5m (-29.7%)
Masterminds - $2.9m (-29.9%)
Don't Breathe - $0.9m (-36.2%)
Pricing could dictate use of any of these, but none of them should be in your Cineplex unless you're just filling. Of everything out there, these appear to be the three most likely to lose a significant chunk of their theater counts.Oct 11, 2016, 9:44am PDTEdited
Oct 11, 2016, 11:18am PDT