Ok, Let's Talk About the Split

@phils_phun_phlicks · Phil's Phun Phlicks!
Aug 1, 2016, 8:29pm PDT

Welp, we finally got our first split of the Summer season, as Suicide Squad gets the daily treatment. Let's break it down.

First, FML priced SS at $708/$443/$355. So, based on what pct each day got of the SS all-in total, we're looking at a 47.0%/29.4%/23.6% split. To me, that looks most similar to The Dark Knight Rises, which was roughly 47.1%/27.9%/25.0%...


DKR also, I believe, was one of the first movies to have an earlier than midnight preview. Chances are, it's the best comp we're going to have. It's worth noting that, once we get into the summer months with plenty of kids still out of school, finding Fridays that go much higher than DKR's 47% is pretty tough. This is your big exception...


... But I doubt we see anything like the $45M Thursday night Deathly Hallows 2 posted, so let's just temper expectations.

Now, so far, all I've brought up are two movies that went over $150M. Is SS that kind of movie? Eh, probably not. The PBO LRF is calling for $124M, which puts it pretty close to...


Man of Steel had some odd tomfoolery with some promotion leading to $12M reported on Thursday. Let's roll that into Friday, and now we get a split of 43.6%/28.2%/28.2%.

MoS makes for an interesting observation though... it's pretty hard to get a split to 47% Friday unless the movie is heading to $150M+.... during the summer at least. Keep in mind in other FML splits, we've always had school in session, with the exception of Star Wars falling on winter break.... but you don't use Star Wars as a comp. Ever. Just stop.

Even when we're talking bad movies...


If you don't get to $150M, you can probably kiss anything over 46% goodbye.


This is the summer of frontloading. At least when it comes to Friday. Just look at Bad Moms vs Trainwreck...


Or Jason Bourne vs MI: Rogue Nation


Or Independence Day vs San Andreas...


And this year did beget Batman v Superman's bizarre frontloading, surely caused by Easter weekend...


Bottom line: this is a rough one. At first glance, 47% Friday DOES look too high. However, this summer has just been soooo frontloaded. It looks like FML priced it very well, but I'd say it's tough to feel good about either direction.

So how's everyone feeling? Still #AlwaysFriday? Or is Suicide Squad just absurdly overpriced and not warranting of a split at all?

40 Replies

  • Reply #1

    Wow. Great stuff.

    Going 2x Saturday right now.

    @nsa · NSA Drafthouse (PUGS)
    Aug 1, 2016, 8:32pm PDT
  • Reply #2

    I think they shouldn't have even put Suicide Squad in the lineup, just because idk if it should've gotten a split, since it got a split I can't play it (most likely)

    @steve · STEVE
    Aug 1, 2016, 8:32pm PDT
  • Reply #3

    alwaysFriday until I get burned by it. Played 2xSat last time and was burned bad.

    @rosies_choice · Rosie's Choice : Dark Side [+]
    Aug 1, 2016, 8:40pm PDT
  • Reply #4

    I haven't looked too far into this yet in terms of percentage comparison, but just looking back at Captain America Civil War, it's Saturday performance was a good amount higher than Friday. The Friday won out in the PC due to the overperformance of Mother's Day (7x bonus). Also, doing 2x Sat wasn't realistic due to the pricing ($482). Since SS lends itself to playing a 2x Saturday, I'm leaning towards that at the moment even though I've always played Friday's thus far.

    Once again, haven't done enough research on this yet (May release vs. August makes a big difference) but so far Saturday squared seems attractive. Especially if Cafe Society gets an expansion, which allows you to go 6x CS. Thoughts?

    @craig · Craig's Grindhouse (R)
    Aug 1, 2016, 8:45pm PDT
  • Reply #5

    You're in my wheelhouse Phil...

    TDKR was a midnight premier. The last one actually, as during one of those shows there was a mass shooting in Colorado that changed everything.

    Man of Steel had both the wierd Thursday group sale, and opened on Father's Day weekend.

    BvS was helped very much Thur & Fri by Good Friday, then hurt on Sat & Sat by word of mouth.

    Bottom line: there is no good comp for a film like this opening in the summer. You can stretch one of the ones you noted (or others) to make it fit, but no way to know for sure how it's going to play out.

    @user2rarz3 · M37: And like that *poof* he's gone ...
    Aug 1, 2016, 9:09pm PDT
  • Reply #6

    Absurdly overpriced and not warranting of a split at all. Just don't see how this outdoes Dory's opening weekend.

    @ccsziegfeld · cc's ziegfeld◬
    Aug 1, 2016, 9:22pm PDT
  • Reply #7

    My Monday night impression is none of the SS days will be in my lineup. Currenlty looking at something like 1xJB and a bunch of Moms/SLOPs and filler.

    @concessions · Concessions
    Aug 1, 2016, 9:24pm PDT
  • Reply #8

    My hunch without doing much research and comping is to say we are looking at a roughly 44/31/25 breakdown across the weekend, but it will be very interesting given that we've never before seen an opening weekend of SUICIDE SQUAD's (projected) magnitude in August.

    I could see it being a bit more front-loaded than that (especially if reviews come in below expectations and the overall weekend take begins trending downward), and I could just as easily see it legging out across the weekend.

    This is likely going to keep me curious all week.

    @jordan · Jordan Michael B. (R)
    Aug 1, 2016, 9:30pm PDT
  • Reply #9

    @ Jakku:

    8x PETS, anyone? Anyone? Bueller?

    @jordan · Jordan Michael B. (R)
    Aug 1, 2016, 9:31pm PDT
  • Reply #10

    I currently am not screening it but I'm still nervous that this movie does something ridiculous like a 80mil Friday.

    @user2xk9yp · Blue Moon Theater
    Aug 1, 2016, 9:32pm PDT
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