Thursday Fandango Check - Awards Week 11

@phils_phun_phlicks · Phil's Phun Phlicks!
Feb 13, 2020, 10:25am PST

Ok, time to see how showtimes are shaping up for the Nielsen Top 40+1 markets. Data table is below…

And now, below, I present the FSS gross/show that you'll need to expect to in order for a movie to win the bonus. I get a lot of questions how I derive this, so here's a quick primer on how I calc this…

  • Total showtimes are set equal to [Shows/Theater] observed in the top 40+1 multiplied by the total number of theaters showing found on BOMojo and then slightly reduced to account for the fact that many theaters in the top 40+1 have far more screens than theaters in smaller areas. This factor ranges from 70%-98% and depends on the shows/theater.
  • If the theater count is known at the time of this writing, I use that theater count as the national number. If not, I take the observed theater change in the top 40+1 data and apply it to the national number with some adjustment based on how the Top 40+1 week over week dropped compared to the national drop. If the theater count is not known and it's a platform release expanding, I assume the Top 40+1 represents 40% of the total locations (based off past observation).
  • BO Receipts are set equal to Guyett's Bonus Bar unless new information necessitates a change.
  • Thursday preview show counts are estimated at a 10% addition to the weekend showcount unless noted otherwise.

Bonus Bar will be set at $115k.

The Newbies

Movie | Gross/show | Change from LW

Sonic The Hedgehog | $562/show |DEBUT | 4,081 theaters
The Photograph | $450/show |DEBUT | 2,500 theaters
Fantasy Island | $393/show |DEBUT | 2,700 theaters
Downhill | $130/show |DEBUT | 2,275 theaters

132k shows for Sonic The Hedgehog is about 8k ahead of POTC: Dead Men Tell No Tales's OW in May-17. It grossed $506/show its OW.
53k shows for The Photograph is about 2k ahead of Breaking In's OW in May-18. It grossed $346/show its OW.
51k shows for Fantasy Island is about 3k behind Ma (2019)'s OW in May-19. It grossed $338/show its OW.
43k shows for Downhill is about 1k behind Poms's OW in May-19. It grossed $122/show its OW.

Holdover Tiers

Volume Winners - The options below saw a significant uptick or hold you may or may not have seen coming and may want to adjust your expectations up a bit.

None this week

Nothing to See Here - The options below didn't see a significant shift in expected volume or theater splitting. I would suggest whatever you thought about them before this post remains the same.

Birds of Prey | $243/show |-3.7% | 4,236 theaters
1917 | $212/show |-3.4% | 3,170 theaters
Dolittle | $152/show |5.0% | 2,769 theaters
Jumanji: The Next Level | $197/show |13.6% | 2,234 theaters
Parasite | $218/show |3.1% | 2,120 theaters

Getting Dicey - The options below are either losing a decent number of theaters, are moving into a split screen situation after previously having a full screen at theaters showing them, or were priced for some expansion that did not come to pass. I wouldn't call them useless, but I'd temper expectations.

Bad Boys For Life | $302/show |28.2% | 3,190 theaters

DOA - The options below likely lost too much volume or didn't gain nearly enough shows to matter this week. Avoid if possible.

The Gentlemen | $201/show |55.1% | 1,845 theaters
Jojo Rabbit | $244/show |39.3% | 1,075 theaters
Knives Out | $237/show |51.8% | 1,073 theaters
Little Women | $257/show |74.3% | 1,072 theaters
Star Wars: Episode IX - The Rise of Skywalker | $231/show |81.8% | 1,030 theaters

2 Replies

  • Reply #1

    Interesting comps for new releases

    @jakthird · jakthird (R)
    Feb 14, 2020, 3:00am PST
  • Reply #2

    I know right, everything is in May also 🤔

    @havinfun · Dubs®
    Feb 14, 2020, 3:24am PST
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