Bonus Bar and Contenders - Awards- Week 11 - 2020

@guyett · Guyett
Feb 11, 2020, 10:20am PST

Hey everyone, Guyett back with the Bonus Bar for Week 11 of Awards 2020!

Bonus Bar is set to $115k.

Third last week of the season and we saw the first signs of Exxdee being human last week, If you need to make a move this looks like an interesting week to do so. With Valentine's Day on Friday and Presidents Day on Monday this is looking to be an absolute bonkers weekend, best of luck figuring it out. My numbers are pointing to a bar higher than FML's Cineplex Builder indicates.

SONIC | $74.17m (New Release) | Pro BoxOffice have a 3 Day Long Range Forecast of $36m, which Sonic will have to significantly beat to reach this bar. Tracking by the folks over at Box Office Theory show the Thursday to be pretty high, some comps being used indicate over $5m in previews. Now one must approach this data with extreme caution, yes this is a kids film and yes that is a starved demographic (F2, Jumanji and Dolittle holds over the past few weeks indicate this) but the Sonic fanbase is really f&cking weird…. Like weirder than the My Little Ponies crowd. Don't be surprised to see this post a stupid low Thursday compared to expectations and for it to not exactly play out like a kids film.

BIRDS OF PREY | $25.07m (-24.05%) | After a mediocre opening weekend Harley Quinn is going to lose some of her PLF's to Sonic. That being said, I'd expect her to get a nice Valentine's Day bump and the extra day should help soften the fall this weekend. If the new releases are looking to come in light expect Harley to be a very very popular anchor option.

THE PHOTOGRAPH | $23.69m (New Release) | Romantic Drama being released on Valentine's Day… this reminds me a bit of 2014!
An AA rom com, a coming of age romantic drama and a romantic fantasy all released on valentine's day over the 4 day weekend making $27.8m, $14.4m and $8m respectively. LRF here is $13m, do NOT underestimate Photograph this weekend.

FANTASY ISLAND | $19.90m (New Release) | And now we come to this weekends new horror release, this time from Blumhouse in their first outing since the "wildly successful" Black Christmas. Unusually Jason is working with Sony here rather than Universal, he'll be back there for Invisible Man later this month. Sony do have some success with horror opening in the mid 2,000's but what should terrify everyone is the lack of Thursday previews. This is a 5x anchor play, and well 5x horror anchor plays have been a bit sketchy this season, play with caution, 3 day LRF is $14m

BAD BOYS FOR LIFE | $16.45m (+36.91%) | Watch out for incoming volume loss, pricing seems way off here too…. Approach with caution.

1917 | $10.93m (18.28%) | Could see a minor expansion following the Oscars, but as the awards were largely technical in nature, and not for any of the bigger categories one should temper one's expectations here. Monday dailies show it is neck and neck with Bad Boys now.

DOLITTLE | $7.25m (+10.87%) | Low PTA last week in high number of theatres indicates impending volume loss, but it's the incoming "family friendly" film that is of concern here. Yes Valentines Day will give it a boost, and the 4 day weekend will certainly help too.

JUMANJI: THE NEXT LEVEL | $6.56m (+17.97%) | see Dolittle, but the volume loss should be less severe.

2 Replies

  • Reply #1

    PARASITE | $5.75m (+268.53%) | Well Parasite won Best Picture and is expanding to over 2,000 theatres. Typically best picture winners hold, of not increase their Per Theatre Average the weekend after winning. Parasite is a bit different here… No other Best Picture winner had Valentine's Day and President's Day bumping up that hold even further. Reaching the bar is still a big ask but Parasite should be firmly in your contenders pile by now, and the Parasite perfect cinema is pretty easy too.

    DOWNHILL | $5.52m (New Release) | The latest Will Ferrell release appears to be more dramedy than comedy, and is a remake of the European film Force Majeure. This is the first film released by Searchlight Pictures (Formerly Fox Searchlight) and comes with no LRF and an expected theatre count of approximately 1,500. Daddy's Home 2 aside, Will Ferrell has not exactly been Box Office gold, every other film since 2016 has disappointed, some considerably more than others. Comedies where he has been the main actor (Holmes and Watson, and The House) have really really disappointed but Pricing have given Downhill a really really low bar to clear here. File this one under the Risk/Reward section.

    THE GENTLEMEN | $4.26m (+0.94%) | Watch out for volume loss here, and there is probably not going to be much of a Valentine's Day bump either. Approach with caution.

    JOJO RABBIT | $2.99m (+97.85%) | Jojo picked up the Oscar for best adapted screenplay, we're probably not seeing a massive expansion here, but one in the low hundreds could certainly help Jojo near this target.

    KNIVES OUT | $2.88m (+25.13%) | Knives keeps ticking along, $1,592 in 1,443 locations is probably enough to avoid catastrophic volume loss… but with 4 new releases, and the post Oscar expansions to take into account, don't be surprised to see Knives take more of a hit than expected.

    LITTLE WOMEN | $2.76m (+16.16%) | No major awards means we're unlikely to see a major expansion here. Potential Valentine's day bump should offset any potential volume loss.

    STAR WARS | $2.42m (+4.39%) | Volume loss is going to kill Star Wars

    @guyett · Guyett
    Feb 11, 2020, 10:20am PSTEdited
  • Reply #2

    I'm not super in love with your bar level yet with all the incoming screens. The reasonings for each movie still stand though

    @furiosa · Sir Julius
    Feb 11, 2020, 3:46pm PST
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