Weekly Comps With Waco and Nux

@waco_kid · The Waco Kidplex
Dec 12, 2019, 4:05pm PSTEdited

Hello all @waco_kid and @nux here to provide some help with figuring out your lineup this week based on films that are "comparable" to the ones on the slate this week.



In the main post are the films that are in their first or second week and then the Nuxdistance report takes you through comps in their third week or later. So let's see what's on tap.


Newcomers


Jumanji: The Next Level
Movie | BO | Theaters | PTA | Gross BO | Release Date | Thursday Mult
Antman and the Wasp | 75,812,205 | 4,206 | 18,024 | 216,648,740 | 7/6/2018 | 6.59


Keys to Comps: Sequels that had an increased BO from original. In checking other films, this seemed to be an appropriate comp. Based on the percent increase from the original to the sequel, that should get Jumanji to around 47M which is just above its LRF, so entirely doable. The issue with this comp is that it occurred during the summer, so not only does that kill the PTA comparison, but also kills the Thursday to weekend Mult. I think we can look for a mult in the 8-10x range, but with 4pm showings, it could be more frontloaded.


Black Christmas
Movie | BO | Theaters | PTA | Gross BO | Release Date | Thursday Mult
Truth or Dare | 18,667,855 | 3,029 | 6,163 | 41,411,015 | 4/13/2018 | 24.89x


Keys to Comps: Friday the 13th opening….check. Blumhouse…...check. This movie definitely will cater to the under-25 female quadrant. Black Christmas is open to about 400 less theaters and it has been hovering around 14M for the last couple of weeks. Blumhouse is always one to overperform. Given that Pro Box Office gave it an 11M estimate and others even lower. I'm not sure what to make of this film other than you should never underestimate Blumhouse Horror films.


Richard Jewell
Movie | BO | Theaters | PTA | Gross BO | Release Date | Thursday Mult
15:17 to Paris | 12,554,286 | 3,042 | 4,126 | 36,276,286 | 2/09/2018 | Null
The Mule | 17,509,431 | 2,588 | 6,765 | 103,804,407 | 12/14/2018 | Null


Keys to Comps: Clint Eastwood directed films. Now the first thing you'll notice is that Paris performed considerably lower than Mule. This has to do with Eastwood actually starring in the Mule. Richard Jewell is opening to a similar theater count to The Mule, but should perform similarly to 15:17 to Paris. If it has Paris' PTA, that puts Richard Jewell around 10.3M for the weekend. With no Thursday previews, you'll need to have a little faith to play it this weekend.

3 Replies

  • Reply #1

    Here's some Nuxdistance model output. Think of this post as a guide for movies you haven't thought of, but have actually been great comps for each movie based on their past performance.


    A lower distance means the movie has acted more like the movie in the past (and in theory is more likely to act like it in the future). Higher distances generally mean more volatility as well. I'm still open to any questions!



    Frozen II


    Distance | Movie
    0.169 | Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
    0.215 | The Jungle Book
    0.218 | Finding Dory
    0.267 | Aquaman
    0.267 | Deadpool
    0.285 | Beauty and the Beast
    0.292 | Wonder Woman
    0.319 | It
    0.329 | Dr. Seuss' The Grinch
    0.333 | The Lion King



    Knives Out


    Distance | Movie
    0.020 | Lucy
    0.026 | The Monuments Men
    0.037 | Passengers
    0.039 | Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues
    0.039 | The Equalizer
    0.044 | Angel Has Fallen
    0.050 | Deepwater Horizon
    0.053 | Glass
    0.057 | Annabelle: Creation
    0.060 | Muppets Most Wanted



    Ford v. Ferrari


    Distance | Movie
    0.308 | Mr. Peabody & Sherman
    0.309 | Heaven is for Real
    0.363 | Daddy's Home
    0.375 | The Peanuts Movie
    0.375 | Planes
    0.381 | Identity Thief
    0.383 | Hacksaw Ridge
    0.384 | Wonder
    0.396 | Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa
    0.397 | Les Miserables



    Queen And Slim


    Distance | Movie
    0.051 | Molly's Game
    0.092 | The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
    0.097 | Late Night
    0.160 | Den of Thieves
    0.167 | Harriet
    0.171 | BlacKkKlansman
    0.201 | John Wick
    0.212 | The Boy
    0.212 | The Purge
    0.220 | A Haunted House



    A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood


    Distance | Movie
    0.313 | The Age of Adaline
    0.393 | Alpha
    0.411 | The Giver
    0.414 | Kubo and the Two Strings
    0.420 | Five Feet Apart
    0.433 | The DUFF
    0.437 | Logan Lucky
    0.468 | Sherlock Gnomes
    0.478 | Breakthrough
    0.479 | Escape From Planet Earth



    Dark Waters


    Distance | Movie
    20.708 | Wind River
    23.915 | The Big Sick
    25.927 | It Follows
    27.820 | Isle Of Dogs
    30.648 | Gifted
    30.892 | Searching
    31.115 | Woman in Gold
    31.205 | Overcomer
    31.327 | The Star
    31.354 | If I Stay



    21 Bridges


    Distance | Movie
    0.172 | Ricki and the Flash
    0.238 | Peppermint
    0.241 | Risen
    0.243 | John Wick
    0.246 | Cold Pursuit
    0.254 | Kidnap
    0.268 | The World's End
    0.269 | The Family
    0.274 | Black or White
    0.283 | One Direction: This is Us



    Playing With Fire


    Distance | Movie
    0.355 | The Gift
    0.378 | 2 Guns
    0.430 | Insidious Chapter 2
    0.447 | The Giver
    0.457 | Breakthrough
    0.473 | Kubo and the Two Strings
    0.480 | Harriet
    0.485 | The Smurfs 2
    0.492 | Last Vegas
    0.508 | Escape From Planet Earth



    Midway


    Distance | Movie
    0.251 | 2 Guns
    0.343 | The Gift
    0.343 | Insidious Chapter 2
    0.361 | The Smurfs 2
    0.364 | Harriet
    0.407 | Alita: Battle Angel
    0.443 | Breakthrough
    0.466 | The Visit
    0.484 | Parental Guidance
    0.486 | Last Vegas



    Double Feature


    No comps



    Parasite


    Distance | Movie
    0.262 | Book Club
    0.313 | I'll See You In My Dreams
    0.320 | Eye in the Sky
    0.324 | Hello, My Name is Doris
    0.331 | The Fault in our Stars
    0.350 | Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials
    0.380 | Enough Said
    0.382 | Rampage
    0.393 | The Theory of Everything
    0.396 | The Big Sick



    Jojo Rabbit


    Distance | Movie
    0.416 | 2 Guns
    0.419 | The Judge
    0.425 | Kong: Skull Island
    0.427 | The Peanut Butter Falcon
    0.428 | Creed
    0.452 | Three Identical Strangers
    0.472 | Parasite
    0.472 | The Intern
    0.478 | Wild
    0.482 | The Impossible



    Joker


    Distance | Movie
    0.347 | The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
    0.373 | The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 1
    0.397 | They Shall Not Grow Old
    0.399 | We're the Millers
    0.446 | Mission: Impossible - Fallout
    0.451 | Deadpool 2
    0.457 | Spider-Man: Into The Spiderverse
    0.465 | The Upside
    0.482 | Paddington
    0.512 | Jurassic World



    Last Christmas


    Distance | Movie
    0.250 | The Perfect Guy
    0.276 | Isn't it Romantic
    0.298 | Barbershop: The Next Cut
    0.318 | Fantastic Four
    0.328 | Ricki and the Flash
    0.329 | The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
    0.330 | Tyler Perry's Temptation: Confessions of a Marriage Counselor
    0.332 | Draft Day
    0.350 | Fighting With My Family
    0.352 | Power Rangers

    @nuxdistance · Nuxdistance Model
    Dec 12, 2019, 8:17pm PST
  • Reply #2

    Here are my tiers (movies provided in order of bux from highest to lowest)


    Tier 1: WHAT A DAY!! WHAT A LOVELY DAY!!
    Frozen II, Queen & Slim, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Dark Waters


    Tier 2: Witness me!!
    Knives Out, Ford v. Ferrari, 21 Bridges, Midway


    Tier 3: Just a half life
    Playing With Fire, Double Feature, Joker, Last Christmas

    @nuxdistance · Nuxdistance Model
    Dec 12, 2019, 8:18pm PST
  • Reply #3

    Bump

    @nosferatus_shadow · ... _ _ _ _._. _._
    Dec 13, 2019, 7:43am PST
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