Thursday Fandango Check - Awards Week 2

@phils_phun_phlicks · Phil's Phun Phlicks!
Dec 12, 2019, 11:23am PST

Ok, time to see how showtimes are shaping up for the Nielsen Top 40+1 markets. Data table is below…


http://analyzer.fmlnerd.com/showtimes/


And now, below, I present the FSS gross/show that you'll need to expect to in order for a movie to win the bonus. I get a lot of questions how I derive this, so here's a quick primer on how I calc this…


  • Total showtimes are set equal to [Shows/Theater] observed in the top 40+1 multiplied by the total number of theaters showing found on BOMojo and then slightly reduced to account for the fact that many theaters in the top 40+1 have far more screens than theaters in smaller areas. This factor ranges from 70%-98% and depends on the shows/theater.
  • If the theater count is known at the time of this writing, I use that theater count as the national number. If not, I take the observed theater change in the top 40+1 data and apply it to the national number with some adjustment based on how the Top 40+1 week over week dropped compared to the national drop. If the theater count is not known and it's a platform release expanding, I assume the Top 40+1 represents 40% of the total locations (based off past observation).
  • BO Receipts are set equal to Guyett's Bonus Bar unless new information necessitates a change.
  • Thursday preview show counts are estimated at a 10% addition to the weekend showcount unless noted otherwise.


Bonus Bar will be set at $80k.


The Newbies



Movie | Gross/show | Change from LW


Jumanji: The Next Level | $378/show |DEBUT | 4,000 theaters
Black Christmas | $403/show |DEBUT | 2,500 theaters
Richard Jewell | $447/show |DEBUT | 2,300 theaters


125k shows for Jumanji: The Next Level is about 2k ahead of Dumbo (2019)'s OW in Mar-19. It grossed $374/show its OW.
40k shows for Black Christmas is about 11k behind of Truth or Dare's OW in Apr-18. It grossed $366/show its OW.
30k shows for Richard Jewell is about 9k behind of The Mule's OW in Dec-18. It grossed $447/show its OW.


Holdover Tiers



Volume Winners - The options below saw a significant uptick or hold you may or may not have seen coming and may want to adjust your expectations up a bit.


None this week


Nothing to See Here - The options below didn't see a significant shift in expected volume or theater splitting. I would suggest whatever you thought about them before this post remains the same.


Knives Out | $224/show |-17.1% | 3,425 theaters
Ford v. Ferrari | $125/show |-16.0% | 3,055 theaters
Queen & Slim | $214/show |-24.0% | 1,555 theaters
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood | $103/show |-11.9% | 2,553 theaters
Dark Waters | $110/show |-31.8% | 2,018 theaters


Getting Dicey - The options below are either losing a decent number of theaters, are moving into a split screen situation after previously having a full screen at theaters showing them, or were priced for some expansion that did not come to pass. I wouldn't call them useless, but I'd temper expectations.


Frozen II | $250/show |-1.7% | 4,248 theaters


DOA - The options below likely lost too much volume or didn't gain nearly enough shows to matter this week. Avoid if possible.


21 Bridges | $122/show |13.4% | 1,516 theaters
Midway | $102/show |25.0% | 1,497 theaters
Playing With Fire | $114/show |26.6% | 1,264 theaters
Joker (2019) | $195/show |57.3% | 578 theaters
Last Christmas | $146/show |41.9% | 672 theaters

14 Replies

  • Reply #1

    11k behind of Truth or Dare's OW in Apr-18.


    Is that really the closest comp there is? Seems like a big difference on 40-50k showtimes.

    @fourthwall · Fourth Wall
    Dec 12, 2019, 11:57am PST
  • Reply #2

    Countdown.

    @dylan · Biff
    Dec 12, 2019, 12:32pm PST
  • Reply #3

    What about the DF movies?

    @arachnidmale · Andy's XXX Sexyplex Film Emporium
    Dec 12, 2019, 3:01pm PST
  • Reply #4

    What about the DF movies?

    @arachnidmale · Andy's XXX Sexyplex Film Emporium
    Dec 12, 2019, 3:01pm PST
  • Reply #5

    What about the DF movies?

    @arachnidmale · Andy's XXX Sexyplex Film Emporium
    Dec 12, 2019, 3:01pm PST
  • Reply #6

    What about the DF movies?

    @arachnidmale · Andy's XXX Sexyplex Film Emporium
    Dec 12, 2019, 3:01pm PST
  • Reply #7

    I have a thought, what about the DF movies?

    @kevin · Satellite of Love (SOL) (R)
    Dec 12, 2019, 6:37pm PST
  • Reply #8

    What are DF movies?

    @zombi31 · Unplanned War Room
    Dec 12, 2019, 9:39pm PST
  • Reply #9

    What are DF movies?

    @zombi31 · Unplanned War Room
    Dec 12, 2019, 9:39pm PST
  • Reply #10

    @zombi31 What are DF movies?


    Double Feature..This week it's JoJo Rabbit and Parasite .. You'll receive the combined weekend revenue of both films for each time you screen the Double Feature in your lineup.

    @old_crow · The Old Crow Picture Show
    Dec 12, 2019, 9:56pm PST
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