Bonus Bar and Contenders - Awards- Week 2 - 2020
Hey everyone, Guyett back with the Bonus Bar for Week 2 of Awards 2020!
Bonus Bar is set to $80k.
JUMANJI: THE NEXT LEVEL | $47.36m (New Release) | LRF is $44m, which is considerably lower than the initial $70m. Are people as interested this time around, especially with the giant Star Wars shaped behemoth on the horizon. Previews start at 4pm, so be careful with the Thurs multiple. The jury is out on whether Jumanji can hit this bar, if the other high priced options look to be coming in low it probably makes your cinema.
FROZEN 2 | $21.04m (-40.17%) | Well last weekend was a bit of a damp fart for this massive sequel, still it has the record for the post Thanksgiving weekend with that $35.1m gross. It is worth noting that the Thanksgiving animated films have held exceptionally well this weekend, but none faced a film of the scale of Jumanji, and this year this weekend is later in the year. Ralph had a -36%, Coco -33%, Moana -34%, Good Dinosaur -31%, Big Hero 6 -25% and Frozen -29% (this one is the same yearly layout as this year, and was against another massive family film sequel). One must also consider that Frozen has been something of a FML disappointment with aggressive pricing, will it continue to be one?
BLACK CHRISTMAS | $16.24m (New Release) | PG 13 horror, check. Friday 13th, check. In a completely shocking turn of events I am on board. This is a nice 4x anchor option priced above its LRF of $14m, which was initially $12m. Theatre count is currently a little low at about 2,500 but this is Blumhouse Universal, do not underestimate it. Some Thurs mults of F13 horror openers include:
Insidious Chapter 2: 27x
The Darkness: 24x
The Bye Bye Man: 34x (on 3 days of the MLK 4 day weekend)
Happy Death Day: 25x
Truth or Dare: 25x
RICHARD JEWELL | $13.36m (New Release) | LRF is $13m, so if it at least hits it then it is in play. As with the last two Clint Eastwood films (15:17 to Paris and The Mule) there are no Thursday previews so you are heading into the weekend blind. This is a 5x play, but a somewhat risky one. 15:17 made $12.5m on its opening weekend, it also did not feature Clint as an actor, instead choosing for the people from the real life event. Clint did star in The Mule as it made a whopping $17.5m on its opening weekend in similar theatre volume to what Red Neck Paul Blart is opening to. Normally the low volume in a Warner Bro's release would set the alarm bells off but Clint Eastwood is typically the exception to that rule based on his previous.
KNIVES OUT | $10.16m (-28.53%) | Knives Out has been given an exceptionally high bar to clear here. Knives did pick up noms for best picture, actor and actress in a musical/comedy so there may be a Golden Globes bump, but Knives Out is probably grossing too much already for that bump to be effective. That being said, and this applies for most holdovers, this weekend has seen strong holdover performances. Check out 2013 as one example given it has the same daily layout as this year, but keep other years in mind too:
FORD VS FERRARI | $4.32m (-35.09%) | Another Golden Globes bump candidate with Bale getting a Best Actor nomination. Expect Richard Jewell to impact the Red States demographic and Jumanji to potentially take the PG13 crowd that I believe FvF benefited from over the last few weeks.
QUEEN AND SLIM | $4.24m (-36.17%) | Queen is in another dogfight with FvF and logic dictates it should win given the above negatives for FvF. Queen, however, is not completely free from competition. Black Christmas is horror, which is a AA heavier demo, has a pretty diverse cast and appears to have strong female empowerment messages. With no large expansion last weekend I am not expecting one this weekend given the fresh competition for theatre space.
A BEAUTIFUL DAY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD | $3.28m (-36.93%) | Rogers disappointed yet again last week, my condolences to the 5x players. It disappointed the previous week, and opened very poorly against Frozen. Why is this week any different, especially given the aggressive pricing and poor PTA of $1,490 in 3,491 theatres. Approach with extreme caution and try not get tricked by them dailies again, no matter how enticing they look.
DARK WATERS | $2.48m (-37.94%) | The big question is how much does Richar Jewell hit Dark Waters, and whether it keeps its volume. On the Basis of Sex shows a nice pathway to BP:
21 BRIDGES | $1.76m (-38.57%) | Again this bar looks high but I'll point to the holdover argument in Knives Out. PTA was not great last weekend, but compared to the likes of Maleficent, Last Christmas, Midway, Harriet and Playing With Fire it is actually in reasonable shape. Keep an eye on the Showtime Report, 21B was a contender last weekend, and probably is again this week if it can hold volume.
PLAYING WITH FIRE | $1.20m (-40.98%) | Expect a rebound from Playmobil (lol jokes). In reality the PTA last weekend was awful, $903 in 2,253 theatres is awful and there is a large family new release looming on the horizon (admittedly one that skews a bit older than PWF's audience). I'd approach with caution here.
MIDWAY | $1.20m (-37.92%) | As with PWF there is a volume problem, PTA of $921 in 2,100 theatres is not great.
DOUBLE FEATURE | $1.12m (-11.50%) | Bar is so aggressive here, but both Jojo Rabbit and especially Parasite got a lot of Golden Globes love. Note the expansions and holds of the awards nominated films here, but maybe avoid the newer releases expanding for the first time:
JOKER | $0.88m (-12.97%) | Very aggressive bar, but like above there should be a Globes nomination bump.
LAST CHRISTMAS | $0.80m (-21.32%) | This bar seems excessively aggressive for Last Christmas here. Yes we are approaching actual Christmas and this is the defacto Christmas option but that PTA last week is pretty meek and there are three new releases, one of which is estimated to be in over 4,000 locations. LC is unlikely your BP, but certainly could make the PC.Dec 10, 2019, 10:03am PST
It feels like Jumanji came out months ago since I've been seeing Zaxby's ads tied in with it since football season started it seems.Dec 10, 2019, 10:41am PST
A little more colorful this week. Had me laughing in spots. Nice work @guyettDec 10, 2019, 10:45am PST
Great stuff. Surprisingly, I'm actually lower than you for once. My bonus bar is hovering around 75K at the moment, with a lot of stuff hovering in the 65-70 range
That bottom row is extremely ugly though, and the middle row doesn't look much better. If I were a betting man, I'd throw a pizza bet on our BP coming from the top rowDec 10, 2019, 11:08am PST
@lalalight Great stuff. Surprisingly, I'm actually lower than you for once. My bonus bar is hovering around 75K at the moment, with a lot of stuff hovering in the 65-70 range
That bottom row is extremely ugly though, and the middle row doesn't look much better. If I were a betting man, I'd throw a pizza bet on our BP coming from the top row
The only bottom row that appeals to me is the DF. The nominations should bump it up to over $1mil combined. My BP best is top row though (Richard Jewell).Dec 10, 2019, 1:11pm PST
Are theater counts gone from boxofficemojo? The new site is TERRIBLE and i can't find it. Anyone know the counts for our double feature?Dec 13, 2019, 7:21am PST
Are theater counts gone from boxofficemojo? The new site is TERRIBLE and i can't find it. Anyone know the counts for our double feature?
Forget Mojo, The Numbers is where its at!
https://www.the-numbers.com/news/243410830-Weekend-Theater-Counts-Jumanji-The-Next-Level-is-This-Weeks-Widest-ReleaseDec 13, 2019, 7:22am PST