Pre-Pricing Predictions - Awards Week 2

@lalalight · LaLaLight (IOU)
Dec 8, 2019, 1:16pm PST

Hey FML! Here's week 2 of awards season pricing predictions - we've got three interesting new releases, but unfortunately an ugly tail of holdovers, so I'm going with an ugly low bonus bar of $65K


Film / Price / Gross / % up/down from last week/LRF

  • Jumanji: The Next Level / $702 / $45.6M / +3.7% from LRF of $44M
  • Frozen 2 / $301 / $19.6M / -43.6%
  • Black Christmas / $251 / $16.3M / +16.5% from LRF of $14M
  • Richard Jewell / $222 / $14.4M / +11% from LRF of $13M
  • Knives Out / $130 / $8.5M / -40.5%
  • Queen and Slim / $57 / $3.7M / -43%
  • Ford v Ferrari / $56 / $3.6M / -44%
  • A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood / $44 / $2.9M / -30.2%
  • Dark Waters / $43 / $2.8M / -30.2%
  • 21 Bridges / $24 / $1.6M / -46.2%
  • Midway / $16 / $1M / -45.3%
  • Playing With Fire / $16 / $1M / -48%
  • Double Feature (Harriet + Playmobil) / $10 / $650K / -55.8%
  • Last Christmas / $9 / $585K / -41.5%
  • Joker / $8 / $520K / -48%


Couple of thoughts:

  • Jumanji (2? 3?) is next week's biggest new release. Most of us remember Jumanji's original run two winters ago - it was an FML hall of famer, along with The Greatest Showman, and had an incredlble run for several months. A strong brand name, The Rock and Kevin Hart, pretty decent marketing, and strong family fare before the Christmas holidays led to a very optimistic initial LRF that has since been pretty aggressively slashed to a $40-60M range for OW. It would appear that presales aren't trending well for this sequel, possibly due to marketing just not clicking with people and/or the sequel seeming more gimicky than the predecessor? It also looks like Jumanji: The Next Level had a pretty terrible opening in China, which is another bad omen for its US opening next weekend. Anyway, expect it to be a very expensive 1x play, but probably not priced too far above where its LRF is today.
  • After a pretty disappointing post-Thanksgiving weekend, Frozen 2 continues its run next week. Jumanji is its first real family-oriented competition (unless you count the blockbuster opening of Playmobil) so expect to see a bit of a hit (though Frozen does skew a decent bit younger than Jumanji will). Volume should still be pretty safe, and Frozen probably does better as a winter-themed movie as we head closer to the holidays.
  • Black Christmas and Richard Jewell round out next week's openings, both hovering in the low double digit LRF territory. Black Christmas has a lot of breakout potential, as BSW has alluded to earlier in the week, and there's precedent for horror, teen-oriented films to break past the $15M threshold, especially with Friday the 13th bump. Richard Jewell should also be priced around, and maybe slightly above its LRF, as the Clint Eastwood-directed drama has been getting a decent amount of awards buzz. With Dark Waters opening above expectations, the market for true story-inspired dramas might be hot right now
  • Expect Knives Out to round out your anchor choices next week as it continues chugging along. Should continue to leg out nicely, though it probably gets hit on multiple dimensions by competition from a lot of the new openers...watch out for its Thursday number to see how vulnerable it will be to competition. It should be in a prime spot for a 6 or 7x play depending on where the bonus bar lands and I'm sure a lot of folks will be tempted to swing with Knives
  • Your holdovers are probably in for an ugly time. Lot of volume to be culled as awards films start expanding, three wide new releases come into the fray, and the market cools down in anticipation of Christmas/New Years. Some films that tried and failed a small expansion (lookin at you, Ford, Rogers, and Joker) probably see steeper than expected drops as volume gets yanked away, others like Dark Waters are probably going to maintain volume and leg out nicely, while the bottom of the slate will be gasping for air as theaters make room for heavy hitters.
  • That last spot on the slate is up for debate - you could go with a very cheap Harriet or try and Double Feature Harriet with something else. I think it's kind of fun to throw the absolute dumpster fire opening of Playmobil into the double feature, just so pricing can really hit us with some tempting dare-you pricing on Double Feature, but the safer play is probably to combine Harriet with The Good Liar or Maleficent...


Thoughts?

2 Replies

  • Reply #1

    Surely they'll protect Jumanji a little more, but then I don't really know what to think about the free falling LRF.

    @brandonj · Particular Set of Movie Skills
    Dec 9, 2019, 1:38pm PST
  • Reply #2

    Agreed - not sure how to think about Jumanji. On the one hand, there are a lot of red flags, and pricing it any higher poses the risk of minimizing lineup variety by making it only playable with low end filler. On the other hand, the original was such an unpredictable beast that FML isn't likely to go easy on it.


    Could see it going either way

    @lalalight · LaLaLight (IOU)
    Dec 9, 2019, 1:40pm PST
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