Thursday Fandango Check - Fall Week 6

@phils_phun_phlicks · Phil's Phun Phlicks!
Oct 10, 2019, 1:44pm PDTEdited

Ok, time to see how showtimes are shaping up for the Nielsen Top 40+1 markets. Data table is below…

And now, below, I present the FSS gross/show that you'll need to expect to in order for a movie to win the bonus. I get a lot of questions how I derive this, so here's a quick primer on how I calc this…

  • Total showtimes are set equal to [Shows/Theater] observed in the top 40+1 multiplied by the total number of theaters showing found on BOMojo and then slightly reduced to account for the fact that many theaters in the top 40+1 have far more screens than theaters in smaller areas. This factor ranges from 70%-98% and depends on the shows/theater.
  • If the theater count is known at the time of this writing, I use that theater count as the national number. If not, I take the observed theater change in the top 40+1 data and apply it to the national number with some adjustment based on how the Top 40+1 week over week dropped compared to the national drop. If the theater count is not known and it's a platform release expanding, I assume the Top 40+1 represents 40% of the total locations (based off past observation).
  • BO Receipts are set equal to Guyett's Bonus Bar unless new information necessitates a change.
  • Thursday preview show counts are estimated at a 10% addition to the weekend showcount unless noted otherwise.

Bonus Bar will be set at $66.5k.

The Newbies

Movie | Gross/show | Change from LW

Gemini Man | $371/show |DEBUT
The Addams Family (2019) | $247/show |DEBUT
Jexi | $198/show |DEBUT
Pain and Glory | $1,465/show |DEBUT

67k shows for Gemini Man is about 3k ahead of The Hitman's Bodyguard's OW in Aug-17. It grossed $332/show its OW.
90k shows for The Addams Family (2019) is about 4k ahead of LEGO Ninjago's OW in Sep-17. It grossed $239/show its OW.
37k shows for Jexi is about 2k behind of Booksmart's OW in May-19. It grossed $180/show its OW.
500 shows for Pain and Glory is about 150 behind of The Disaster Artist's OW in Dec-17. It grossed $1,908/show its OW.

Holdover Tiers

Volume Winners - The options below saw a significant uptick or hold you may or may not have seen coming and may want to adjust your expectations up a bit.

The Lion King (2019) | $41/show |-53.2%

Nothing to See Here - The options below didn't see a significant shift in expected volume or theater splitting. I would suggest whatever you thought about them before this post remains the same.

Joker (2019) | $442/show |-24.8%
Downton Abbey | $141/show |-15.7%

Getting Dicey - The options below are either losing a decent number of theaters, are moving into a split screen situation after previously having a full screen at theaters showing them, or were priced for some expansion that did not come to pass. I wouldn't call them useless, but I'd temper expectations.

Abominable | $159/show |0.7%
Hustlers | $149/show |-2.2%

DOA - The options below likely lost too much volume or didn't gain nearly enough shows to matter this week. Avoid if possible.

Judy | $255/show |10.0%
It: Chapter Two | $172/show |14.5%
Ad Astra | $147/show |28.1%
Rambo: Last Blood | $112/show |25.7%
Good Boys | $174/show |79.3%

5 Replies

  • Reply #1

    A Lion King TC increase? This'll be interesting...

    @chillcat · ChillCat's Laboratory
    Oct 10, 2019, 1:52pm PDT
  • Reply #2

    Update bump. Not that TCs didn't tell you the majority of this.

    @phils_phun_phlicks · Phil's Phun Phlicks!
    Oct 10, 2019, 3:07pm PDT
  • Reply #3

    66k BB? Please adjust. ;)

    @dylan · Biff
    Oct 10, 2019, 3:31pm PDT
  • Reply #4

    And so I do the thing I told myself I would inevitably do...albeit like an impressive 3 months later than I thought.

    @jeremy · Circle of Life (IOU)
    Oct 10, 2019, 8:28pm PDT
  • Reply #5

    Damn it! I guess BP is a lock.

    @arachnidmale · Andy's XXX Sexyplex Film Emporium
    Oct 10, 2019, 10:24pm PDT
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