Thursday Fandango Check - Summer Week 11

@phils_phun_phlicks · Phil's Phun Phlicks!
Aug 15, 2019, 12:08pm PDTEdited

Ok, time to see how showtimes are shaping up for the Nielsen Top 40+1 markets. Data table is below…


http://analyzer.fmlnerd.com/showtimes/


And now, below, I present the FSS gross/show that you'll need to expect to in order for a movie to win the bonus. I get a lot of questions how I derive this, so here's a quick primer on how I calc this…


  • Total showtimes are set equal to [Shows/Theater] observed in the top 40+1 multiplied by the total number of theaters showing found on BOMojo and then slightly reduced to account for the fact that many theaters in the top 40+1 have far more screens than theaters in smaller areas. This factor ranges from 70%-98% and depends on the shows/theater.
  • If the theater count is known at the time of this writing, I use that theater count as the national number. If not, I take the observed theater change in the top 40+1 data and apply it to the national number with some adjustment based on how the Top 40+1 week over week dropped compared to the national drop. If the theater count is not known and it's a platform release expanding, I assume the Top 40+1 represents 40% of the total locations (based off past observation).
  • BO Receipts are set equal to Guyett's Bonus Bar unless new information necessitates a change.
  • Thursday preview show counts are estimated at a 10% addition to the weekend showcount unless noted otherwise.


Bonus Bar will be set at $72.5k.


The Newbies



Movie | Gross/show | Change from LW


47 Meters Down: Uncaged | $320/show |DEBUT
The Angry Birds Movie 2 | $242/show |DEBUT
Good Boys | $246/show |DEBUT
Blinded By the Light | $197/show |DEBUT
Where'd You Go, Bernadette | $165/show |DEBUT


46k shows for 47 Meters Down: Uncaged is about 8k ahead of 47 Meters Down's OW in Jun-17. It grossed $298/show its OW.
60k shows for The Angry Birds Movie 2 is about 2k ahead of Teen Titans Go's OW in Jul-18. It grossed $179/show its OW.
50k shows for Good Boys is about 6k behind of War Dogs's OW in Aug-16. It grossed $260/show its OW.
28k shows for Blinded By the Light is about 8k ahead of Searching's OW in Aug-18. It grossed $305/show its OW.
33k shows for Where'd You Go, Bernadette is about 3k behind of Greta's OW in Mar-19. It grossed $124/show its OW.


Holdover Tiers



Volume Winners - The options below saw a significant uptick or hold you may or may not have seen coming and may want to adjust your expectations up a bit.


None this week


Nothing to See Here - The options below didn't see a significant shift in expected volume or theater splitting. I would suggest whatever you thought about them before this post remains the same.


Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw | $222/show |-23.2%
The Lion King (2019) | $206/show |-22.3%
Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark | $236/show |-38.3%
Dora and the Lost City of Gold | $167/show |-36.8%
Once Upon A Time in Hollywood | $221/show |-14.0%
The Art of Racing in the Rain | $120/show |-42.0%
The Kitchen (2019) | $83/show |-42.1%
The Farewell | $166/show |-17.3%


Getting Dicey - The options below are either losing a decent number of theaters, are moving into a split screen situation after previously having a full screen at theaters showing them, or were priced for some expansion that did not come to pass. I wouldn't call them useless, but I'd temper expectations.


None this week


DOA - The options below likely lost too much volume or didn't gain nearly enough shows to matter this week. Avoid if possible.


Spider-Man: Far From Home | $206/show |26.8%
Toy Story 4 | $181/show |20.5%

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