Bonus Bar and Contenders - Summer - Week 11 - 2019
Hey everyone, Guyett back with the Bonus Bar for week 11 of Summer 2019!
Bar is up to $72.5k
So we have another five new releases this week, one of which opens today (Angry Birds 2) and another which will have no Thursday previews (Blinded by the Light). Last weeks new releases may see showtime cuts (especially for the likes of The Kitchen and Brian Banks) but are unlikely to see theatre cuts. This means all week 3 and older are looking at rather sizable volume loss to ensure enough room is made for the new releases. I'm not sure when the last time that we had TEN new releases in two weeks but this should give you a reasonable idea of what's to come for the older holdovers.
This week saw eight week 1 and 2 releases instead of our ten, and some of out holdovers are in better shape than the likes of 2 Guns, Smurfs 2 and Wolverine. It's also worth pointing out that even though there were massive cuts a lot held their PTA impressively, this should be the case for a lot of our holdovers for this week too. Phil's Fandango check on Thursday should be fascinating.
47 METERS DOWN: UNCAGED | $14.645m (New Release) | The highest priced film this week is the sequel to one of 2017's breakout films of the summer in 47 Meters Down. We've seen shark films do extremely well over the summer in recent years with The Shallows, 47 Meters Down and The Meg pulling in $16.8m, $11.2m and $45.4m respectively, and more recently Crawl opened to $12m. 47MD2's LRF dropped from $15m to $13m last weekend in the face of Scary Story's opening, which is one of the bigger question marks over the shark films break out potential, you have to be concerned that Scary ate too much into that hungry PG13 horror demographic.
Finally one for the fans of secret recipes, 47 Meters Down: Uncaged is being released by FML favourite Entertainment Studios, which has a knack for producing FML landmines like Hurricane Heist and Replicas, but also FML gems like Hostiles and Chappaquiddick. The recipe is that Entertainment Studios films that reach the slate alternate between BP candidates and WP candidates.
THE ANGRY BIRDS MOVIE 2 | $14.57m (New Release) | The Angry Birds sequel opens today and has somehow turned out to be an apparently good film with a Rotten Tomatoes critics score of 71%. LRF is $17m, down from an initial $19m, and if it hits that you're almost certainly going to be anchoring with four AB2 screens. As it is opening early in the week we will have a good idea what way this going.
HOBBS AND SHAW | $12.62m (-50.07%) | With a current theatre count of 4,344 expect very large volume loss as theatre's jostle to make room for the new releases. H&S fell -58% last week (-53.5% when the Thurs preview is removed, and isn't seeing too much competition from the new releases outside of theatre real estate. Check out the 3rd week for these late summer action films but remember to account for the volume loss
GOOD BOYS | $12.40m (New Release) | R rated comedy has been hit and miss in Summer, for every Girls Trip and Bad Moms there are multiple The House, Rough Night, Happytime Murders, Spy Who Dumped Me and Stuber. We've seen Booksmart not quite land, at least on opening weekend earlier this summer but with good reviews coming in there's a great chance for Good Boys to be a Superbad for this generation.
THE LION KING | $10.37m (-48.69%) | Lion King has been consistent in its drops and this is very much in line with its form. There are issues with how much volume Lion King loses with the incoming new releases and week 2 holdovers retaining theatre space. Unfortunately TLK is priced just too high to allow for a 7x play, instead you must be content with a 6x.
SCARY STORIES TO TELL IN THE DARK | $10.01m (-52.16%) | Scary Stories should lose some of its PG13 horror demo to 47 Meters Down but there is enough differences between survival shark thriller and supernatural horror so Spooky Stories should hold well enough to trouble this bar. This does make for a very fun and spooky 7x play.
DORA AND THE LOST CITY OF GOLD | $8.70m (-50.09%) | Dora had a pretty underwhelming opening weekend but we've seen weak opening kid films holding very well week 2.
Dora makes for a very attractive all or nothing 8x play for those looking for a massive swing late in the season.
ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD | $6.74m (-42.14%) | The main concern for Hollywood this week is going to be volume loss. On a normal weekend a PTA of $3,323 in 3,507 locations would be just about fine but this is not a normal weekend. Inglorious Basterd settled down to low drops that would pass this bar later on in its run, its biggest cut was approx -700 theatres and it only dropped -37.8%. Hollywood is probably looking at a larger volume drop.
BLINDED BY THE LIGHT | $5.58m (New Release) | Blinded is the latest wide release based on some musician/bands work, in recent years we've had two Mamma Mia's, Bohemian Rhapsody, Rocketman and most recently Yesterday. Of those this is probably closest to Yesterday, but there are significant differences. Sing Street feels like more of an appropriate genre comp but it had a much different release:
While there is an obvious connect to the American audiences with the central theme of Bruce Springsteen's music this is still a British comedy type and we've seen these not quite land with American audiences. Finally the other major concern is the volume Warner Bros is releasing this at (approx 2,000 theatres). I brought this up with the release of The Sun is Also a Star; here's a list of WB releases since 2007 that opened to between 2,000 and 2,400 theatres;
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=thesunisalsoastar.htmAug 13, 2019, 9:46am PDT
WHERE'D YOU GO BERNADETTE | $5.37m (New Release) | LRF here is $6m, down a lot from her initial $11m. Take note that this is being distributed by United Artists Releasing, who have had a pretty poor return at the box office this weekend, all four failed to meet their Pro Box Office opening weekend estimates.
This will surely pull the over 25 female crowd, but that demo is looking pretty full up. I'm getting Walter Mitty vibes from Bernadette:
THE ART OF RACING IN THE RAIN | $3.99m (-51.00%) | The only one of last week's new releases that the Pro's were any way near in terms of long range Box Office projection did not skew as young as some expected:
Sixty-two percent of Art's audience, per Disney, were females, 79% general audiences to 21% families. Over-45 patrons repped 27% of the crowd, with females over 25 the biggest quad at 34%. The best territories of play here were East Coast and Midwest.
In other words, older ladies came out to see this very good doggo. Expect some demo loss to both Blinded by the Light and Bernadette but this bar is very very achievable.
SPIDER MAN FAR FROM HOME | $3.19m (-39.56%) | The five new releases sum are in 3,800+, 3,600+, 3,000+, 2,300+, and 2,000+ locations. The five new releases from last week were in 3,135, 3,735, 2,765, 2,745 and 1,240 locations. Assuming Hobbs & Shaw, The Lion King and Hollywood retain significant volume it means that both Spider Man and Toy Story 4 are in for pretty extreme volume loss for films with PTA's just under $2,000. Assuming the PTA this weekend stays flat, as poorly performing theatres are cut, then Spider Man and Toy Story 4 need to stay above about 1,600 and 1,300 theatres respectively. Again, keep an eye out on Phil's showtime report. Don't be surprised to see something akin to Venom's Week 7
TOY STORY 4 | $2.61m (-42.33%) | See Spider Man
THE KITCHEN | $2.25m (-59.34%) | Oh man The Kitchen was pretty badly rejected by General Audiences wasn't it. Pricing have been merciful and priced it low enough that it can collapse and still trouble the bar… but with these poorly received R rated releases I think they're just in competition with each other to place on this list:
Check out some comps for where The Kitchen could be heading:
THE FAREWELL | $1.60m (-23.95%) | Likely needs an expansion to reach this bar and given the new volume landing I'd be surprised to see one. Then again this expansion pattern has stumped me at each turn so play this one by ear and wait to see Phil's showtime report. I can't help but feel A24 missed their chance by not going wide 2 weeks ago to get out infront of the swathe of new releases.Aug 13, 2019, 9:46am PDT
Good work, but given how many of these marks seem achievable, have to think:Aug 13, 2019, 10:24am PDT
Good stuff, I should have just read this before asking you lolAug 13, 2019, 10:25am PDT
Blinded by the Light had some early showings. Friend of mine said it is probably a top 3 movie all time for him. Big movie fanatic too.Aug 13, 2019, 2:13pm PDT
I'm surprised your BB is at 72.5. I have quite a few movies over that. Even a few over 80K.Aug 13, 2019, 2:30pm PDT
Yeah I'm near 85k for now. Otherwise good stuff.Aug 13, 2019, 2:48pm PDT
Make of this what you will.
The Thursday 7pm showing of Bernadette at Disney Springs had sold 32 tickets
The Thursday 7pm show of 47MD: Uncaged has sold 17 tickets.
That is an oof and a half.Aug 13, 2019, 4:55pm PDT
One would have thought that with 5 new releases last week, and 5 more this week, that it wouldn't be a case of 2 obvious anchor plays, yet here we are.....Aug 13, 2019, 7:48pm PDT
One would have thought that with 5 new releases last week, and 5 more this week, that it wouldn't be a case of 2 obvious anchor plays, yet here we are.....Aug 13, 2019, 8:07pm PDT