Thursday Fandango Check - Summer Week 7

@phils_phun_phlicks · Phil's Phun Phlicks!
Jul 18, 2019, 10:08am PDT

Ok, time to see how showtimes are shaping up for the Nielsen Top 40+1 markets. Data table is below…


http://analyzer.fmlnerd.com/showtimes/


And now, below, I present the FSS gross/show that you'll need to expect to in order for a movie to win the bonus. I get a lot of questions how I derive this, so here's a quick primer on how I calc this…


  • Total showtimes are set equal to [Shows/Theater] observed in the top 40+1 multiplied by the total number of theaters showing found on BOMojo and then slightly reduced to account for the fact that many theaters in the top 40+1 have far more screens than theaters in smaller areas. This factor ranges from 70%-98% and depends on the shows/theater.
  • If the theater count is known at the time of this writing, I use that theater count as the national number. If not, I take the observed theater change in the top 40+1 data and apply it to the national number with some adjustment based on how the Top 40+1 week over week dropped compared to the national drop. If the theater count is not known and it's a platform release expanding, I assume the Top 40+1 represents 40% of the total locations (based off past observation).
  • BO Receipts are set equal to Guyett's Bonus Bar unless new information necessitates a change.
  • Thursday preview show counts are estimated at a 10% addition to the weekend showcount unless noted otherwise.


Bonus Bar will be set at $140.0k.


The Newbies



Movie | Gross/show | Change from LW


The Lion King (2019) Fri | $687/show |DEBUT
The Lion King (2019) Sat | $823/show |DEBUT
The Lion King (2019) Sun | $703/show |DEBUT
The Art of Self-Defense | $256/show |DEBUT



98k shows for The Lion King (2019) Fri is about 2k ahead of Star Wars: The Last Jedi Fri's OW in Dec-17. It grossed $1,092/show its OW.
68k shows for The Lion King (2019) Sat is about 11k ahead of Incredibles 2 Sat's OW in Jun-18. It grossed $1,037/show its OW.
68k shows for The Lion King (2019) Sun is about 10k ahead of Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2 Sun's OW in May-17. It grossed $681/show its OW.
10k shows for The Art of Self-Defense is about 300 ahead of The Dead Don't Die's OW in Jun-19. It grossed $266/show its OW.


Holdover Tiers



Volume Winners - The options below saw a significant uptick or hold you may or may not have seen coming and may want to adjust your expectations up a bit.


None this week


Nothing to See Here - The options below didn't see a significant shift in expected volume or theater splitting. I would suggest whatever you thought about them before this post remains the same.


Spider-Man: Far From Home | $299/show |-13.3%
Toy Story 4 | $283/show |10.8%
Crawl | $126/show |-38.6%
Stuber | $107/show |-30.6%
Yesterday | $139/show |-24.0%


Getting Dicey - The options below are either losing a decent number of theaters, are moving into a split screen situation after previously having a full screen at theaters showing them, or were priced for some expansion that did not come to pass. I wouldn't call them useless, but I'd temper expectations.


The Secret Life of Pets 2 | $143/show |8.4%


DOA - The options below likely lost too much volume to matter this week. Avoid if possible.


Aladdin (2019) | $297/show |49.7%
Annabelle Comes Home | $191/show |33.5%
Midsommar | $250/show |101.2%
Avengers: Endgame | $290/show |55.8%
Men in Black International | $308/show |49.0%

17 Replies

  • Reply #1

    Do what you want with this tidbit, but total showcounts for the following two in their OW's...


    Endgame - 24,850
    Lion King - 26,304

    @phils_phun_phlicks · Phil's Phun Phlicks!
    Jul 18, 2019, 10:09am PDT
  • Reply #2

    Thanks @phils_phun_phlicks this is always a very useful thread.

    @penny · Not Penny's Boat
    Jul 18, 2019, 10:17am PDT
  • Reply #3

    @phils_phun_phlicks Do what you want with this tidbit, but total showcounts for the following two in their OW's...

    Endgame - 24,850Lion King - 26,304


    Wow. Due to length of the movie I guess?

    @serbastian · Ser Bastian's Cineplex
    Jul 18, 2019, 10:24am PDT
  • Reply #4

    MY TOP PICK FOR BP IS IN THE DOA COLUMN


    giphy.gif

    @genaros_bear · The Tardigrex
    Jul 18, 2019, 10:29am PDTEdited
  • Reply #5

    MY TOP PICK FOR BP IS IN THE DOA COLUMN


    If it's Avengers, I gotta admit that I'm already regretting it. I posted in the Drive In Report that there could be shenanigans afoot with Avengers. I'd say be prepared for anything there.


    As for the others? Yeah I can't help you there.

    @phils_phun_phlicks · Phil's Phun Phlicks!
    Jul 18, 2019, 10:38am PDT
  • Reply #6

    MY TOP PICK FOR BP IS IN THE DOA COLUMN


    If it's Avengers, I gotta admit that I'm already regretting it. I posted in the Drive In Report that there could be shenanigans afoot with Avengers. I'd say be prepared for anything there.


    As for the others? Yeah I can't help you there.


    I'll wait for BOM's TC before I make any final decisions, if it has too big a TC I'm getting rid of it anyway. But it's daily holds have been great.

    @genaros_bear · The Tardigrex
    Jul 18, 2019, 10:41am PDT
  • Reply #7

    DOA - The options below likely lost too much volume to matter this week. Avoid if possible.

    Aladdin (2019) | $297/show |49.7%Avengers: Endgame | $290/show |55.8%


    I'll only believe this when actuals come in

    @lurker · Still Showing The End of Evangelion
    Jul 18, 2019, 10:44am PDT
  • Reply #8

    I don't trust Disney at all. I think we're in for more tomfoolery this week. I just don't know which movies is gonna benefit from it yet.

    @penny · Not Penny's Boat
    Jul 18, 2019, 10:45am PDT
  • Reply #9

    You know how in Cloud Atlas, in the future Disney has taken over the entertainment industry so movies are just called Disneys? I feel like when that finally happens this summer will be looked back on as Judgement Day.

    @genaros_bear · The Tardigrex
    Jul 18, 2019, 10:52am PDT
  • Reply #10

    Mickey's Law folks, Mickey's Law.


    Go against it at your own peril.


    giphy.gif

    @bswhite · BSwhite 1970's Discoplex
    Jul 18, 2019, 10:56am PDT
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