Thursday Fandango Check - Summer Week 6

@phils_phun_phlicks · Phil's Phun Phlicks!
Jul 11, 2019, 9:33am PDT

Ok, time to see how showtimes are shaping up for the Nielsen Top 40+1 markets. Data table is below…


http://analyzer.fmlnerd.com/showtimes/


And now, below, I present the FSS gross/show that you'll need to expect to in order for a movie to win the bonus. I get a lot of questions how I derive this, so here's a quick primer on how I calc this…


  • Total showtimes are set equal to [Shows/Theater] observed in the top 40+1 multiplied by the total number of theaters showing found on BOMojo and then slightly reduced to account for the fact that many theaters in the top 40+1 have far more screens than theaters in smaller areas. This factor ranges from 70%-98% and depends on the shows/theater.
  • If the theater count is known at the time of this writing, I use that theater count as the national number. If not, I take the observed theater change in the top 40+1 data and apply it to the national number with some adjustment based on how the Top 40+1 week over week dropped compared to the national drop. If the theater count is not known and it's a platform release expanding, I assume the Top 40+1 represents 40% of the total locations (based off past observation).
  • BO Receipts are set equal to Guyett's Bonus Bar unless new information necessitates a change.
  • Thursday preview show counts are estimated at a 10% addition to the weekend showcount unless noted otherwise.


Bonus Bar will be set at $80.0k.


The Newbies



Movie | Gross/show | Change from LW


Stuber | $336/show |DEBUT
Crawl | $294/show |DEBUT


51k shows for Stuber is about 6k behind of Tag's OW in Jun-18. It grossed $264/show its OW.
56k shows for Crawl is about 2k ahead of Ma (2019)'s OW in May-19. It grossed $338/show its OW.


Holdover Tiers



Volume Winners - The options below saw a significant uptick or hold you may or may not have seen coming and may want to adjust your expectations up a bit.


Rocketman | $150/show |-26.5%


Nothing to See Here - The options below didn't see a significant shift in expected volume or theater splitting. I would suggest whatever you thought about them before this post remains the same.


Spider-Man: Far From Home | $358/show |-37.5%
Toy Story 4 | $238/show |-26.6%
Yesterday | $226/show |-17.9%
Annabelle Comes Home | $132/show |-26.2%
Midsommar | $116/show |-38.6%
The Secret Life of Pets 2 | $134/show |-11.7%
Avengers: Endgame | $140/show |-24.2%
John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum | $181/show |-2.3%


Getting Dicey - The options below are either losing a decent number of theaters, are moving into a split screen situation after previously having a full screen at theaters showing them, or were priced for some expansion that did not come to pass. I wouldn't call them useless, but I'd temper expectations.


Aladdin (2019) | $214/show |-2.5%


DOA - The options below likely lost too much volume to matter this week. Avoid if possible.


Men in Black International | $183/show |6.3%
Child's Play (2019) | $120/show |4.8%
Godzilla: King of the Monsters | $171/show |8.8%

6 Replies

  • Reply #1

    Thank you this is helpful!

    @genaros_bear · The Tardigrex
    Jul 11, 2019, 11:10am PDT
  • Reply #2

    giphy.gif

    @trayoder · Are You Fluent in Gif? (R)
    Jul 11, 2019, 1:40pm PDT
  • Reply #3

    My favorite lineup help of all the posts on here. Thank you @phils_phun_phlicks. You always seem to provide conformation and peace with my starting lineups. You are exactly why I compete in season showdown.


    image

    @zman2018 · Terminus
    Jul 11, 2019, 4:24pm PDT
  • Reply #4

    I blame this thread for pushing me off of MIB.


    😝

    @rush_clasic · No Poetic Device
    Jul 13, 2019, 9:00pm PDT
  • Reply #5

    @rush_clasic I blame this thread for pushing me off of MIB.

    😝


    You'll thank him when it's all said and done

    @trayoder · Are You Fluent in Gif? (R)
    Jul 14, 2019, 3:47am PDT
  • Reply #6

    @rush_clasic I blame this thread for pushing me off of MIB.

    😝You'll thank him when it's all said and done


    giphy.gif

    @trayoder · Are You Fluent in Gif? (R)
    Jul 14, 2019, 10:55am PDT
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