Weekly Comps with Waco and Nux

@waco_kid · The Waco Kidplex
Jul 10, 2019, 7:00pm PDTEdited

Hello all, @waco_kid and @nux here with another edition of Weekly Comps. For those that are new, this thread is meant to help you find films that can assist in determining how a movie will perform each week.
We start with feel comps for the New Releases and those in their second week, then @nuxdistance applies his methodology to find additional comps for the 2nd week and older holdovers.
So lets see what we have this week:


Newcomers


Stuber


Movie | BO | Theaters | PTA | Gross BO | Release Date | Thursday Mults
Let's Be Cops | 17,813,722 | 3,094 | 5,758 | 82,390,774 | 8/13/2014 | 14.84
The Nice Guys | 11,203,270 | 2,865 | 3,910 | 36,261,763 | 5/20/2016 | 16x
RIPD | 12,691,415 | 2,852 | 4,450 | 33,618,855 | 7/19/2013 | 16.42x


Keys to Comp: Buddy Comedies. According to Box Office Mojo, these three films all had release dates in the summer and the best one, Let's Be Cops, had two relevent comedy actors in their roles, whereas what we are seeing here is a comedian and an up-and-coming action star. Stuber will have a simliar TC and we should expect a PTA between 3900 and 4400 this weekend. In looking at the mults, we should see a 15-16x mult from the Thursday previews.


NOTE: Let's Be Cops was a Wednesday Opener, so take that for what it's worth.


Crawl


Movie | BO | Theaters | PTA | Gross BO | Release Date | Thursday Mults
The Shallows | 16,800,868 | 2,962 | 5,672 | 55,124,043 | 6/24/2016 | 12.68x
47 Meters Down | 11,205,561 | 2,270 | 4,936 | 44,307,191 | 6/16/2017 | 15.25x


Keys to Comps: Creature Feature horror/thriller films. Crawl is Paramount's attempt to capitalize on the creature feature horror/thriller genre, trying to be the next Meg. However, given the lack of name recognition, this film is trending downward and is likely to land around where 47 Meters Down hit in 2017. Given it's healthy theater count, this film will need to have an abysmal PTA to go sub $10M. Two distinct multiplier ranges here. With the 3000 TC, expect a lower mult than The Shallows.


Holdovers


Spider-man: Far From Home


Movie | BO | Theaters | Box Office Change | Theater Change | PTA
Despicable Me 2 | 43,892,895 | 4,003 | -47.4% | +.03% | 10,965
Ant-Man and the Wasp | 29,097,859 | 4,206 | -61.6% | NULL | 6,918
Guardians of the Galaxy 2 | 65,263,492 | 4,347 | -55.5% | NULL | 15,013


Keys to Comp: Second weekend films that appeal to kids and families….also Marvel. In looking at the Marvel comps, a case can be made for a 55-60% drop this weekend, however we need to factor in when Spidey was released. With it opening essentially on a Monday, the Weekend-to-Weekend drop will be muted. Spidey should perform similarly to Despicable Me 2 this weekend and will most likely have a drop in the 45-50% range.


Midsommar


Movie | BO | Theaters | Box Office Change | Theater Change | PTA
Hereditary | 6,855,063 | 2,998 | -49.5% | +1.15% | 2,287
Deliver Us From Evil | 4,750,289 | 3,049 | -51.2% | NULL | 1,558
The Witch | 5,066,908 | 2,204 | -42.4% | +7.7% | 2,299


Keys to Comps: Horror films from smaller studios in their second weekend. Well, Midsommar would have come out with a decent 3-Day weekend opening on par with Hereditary had it opened on Friday rather than Wednesday. That being said we should expect a similar second weekend drop if not slightly muted for Midsommar in it's second week. Expect a drop in the 45-50% range this weekend.

7 Replies

  • Reply #1

    Yay!! I love this thread coming out on Wednesdays. :)

    @penny · Not Penny's Boat
    Jul 10, 2019, 7:02pm PDT
  • Reply #2

    Yay!! I love this thread coming out on Wednesdays. :)


    It made me panic for a moment as I thought it was Thursday...and I had somehow lost a day!

    @nosferatus_shadow · ... _ _ _ _._. _._
    Jul 10, 2019, 7:37pm PDT
  • Reply #3

    I was surprised myself to see it out early. Usually I'm on Thurs night crunching numbers. Thank you for the early release.

    @azrattler · Dubs®
    Jul 10, 2019, 9:57pm PDT
  • Reply #4

    Welcome. I'll be driving to my in-laws today and their internet is spotty at best. Figured it would be in everyone's best interest to get this out a bit early. Look forward to @nux's data later today after TCs are released.

    @waco_kid · The Waco Kidplex
    Jul 11, 2019, 6:38am PDT
  • Reply #5

    Okay, here we go. Nux here to give you the Nuxdistance output for the week. For those of you who are new to this, the idea of my report is to compare movies currently on the slate with previous movies using something called Mahalabonis Distance (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mahalanobis_distance). Generally speaking, the idea behind this analysis is "if a movie acted like another one in the past, it's likely to act like that movie in the future". This is called "transaction analysis" in my business. I am not drawing any lines for genre, rating, anything. The formula uses weekend box office drop %, PTA drop %, and theater count drop %.


    On to the movies!!!


    TOY STORY 4
    Movie | PTA_Drop_Perc | BO_Drop_Perc
    It | -41.9% | -43.1%
    Beauty and the Beast | -44.7% | -47.9%
    Furious 7 | -36.3% | -38.8%
    Deadpool | -42.8% | -46.2%
    Captain Marvel | -35.2% | -39.7%
    Jurassic World | -39.7% | -46.3%
    Dawn of the Planet of the Apes | -42.1% | -48.1%
    Suicide Squad | -35.6% | -41.2%
    Minions | -38.5% | -45.9%
    Avengers: Age of Ultron | -35.9% | -44.1%


    Distance Weighted Average PTA drop: $18.85M | -39.9% | $73,077/Bux
    Distance Weighted Average BO drop: $18.95M | -44.0% | $73,437/Bux


    Once we get a better idea about the newcomers, that should help for sure. That being said, if you don't like the newcomers, TS4 could be a very safe anchor!



    YESTERDAY
    Movie | PTA_Drop_Perc | BO_Drop_Perc
    A Walk in the Woods | -41.2% | -40.7%
    The Star | -40.8% | -41.1%
    The Foreigner | -40.2% | -40.5%
    The Nut Job | -39.8% | -39.8%
    The Magnificent Seven | -42.6% | -42.3%
    Tammy | -39.9% | -41.0%
    Dumb and Dumber To | -39.5% | -40.6%
    The Fault in our Stars | -43.2% | -42.0%
    Now You See Me | -43.3% | -42.1%
    Breakthrough | -41.5% | -39.6%


    Distance Weighted Average PTA drop: $6.24M | -41.0% | $63,703/Bux
    Distance Weighted Average BO drop: $5.94M | -40.9% | $60,618/Bux


    There are some lineups where Yesterday comes in as filler. I think that's the only chance it has to make your PC this week, though.



    ALADDIN
    Movie | PTA_Drop_Perc | BO_Drop_Perc
    Spider-Man: Homecoming | -26.8% | -33.7%
    Spider-Man: Into The Spiderverse | -20.5% | -25.5%
    The Greatest Showman | -8.70% | -16.2%
    The Martian | -24.3% | -43.4%
    Gone Girl | -24.2% | -37.8%
    Minions | -15.4% | -24.9%
    Get Out | -18.6% | -26.4%
    The Boss Baby | -10.9% | -36.6%
    Deadpool | -16.2% | -29.4%
    Hotel Transylvania 2 | -20.3% | -35.8%


    Distance Weighted Average PTA drop: $5.66M | -18.7% | $70,785/Bux
    Distance Weighted Average BO drop: $5.19M | -30.9% | $64,885/Bux


    Prince Ali mighty is he!! Aladdin continues to crush at the box. Even with a BP penalty, Al is a potential BP contender this week.



    ANNABELLE COMES HOME
    Movie | PTA_Drop_Perc | BO_Drop_Perc
    Insidious Chapter 2 | -52% | -52.5%
    No Good Deed | -52.9% | -53.9%
    The World's End | -53.0% | -54.0%
    Sausage Party | -51.9% | -51.4%
    Rush | -55.5% | -55.2%
    Boo! A Madea Halloween | -53.8% | -55.1%
    Annabelle: Creation | -51.1% | -50.8%
    Roman J. Israel, Esq. | -55.9% | -55.9%
    Late Night | -50.3% | -51.4%
    The Mountain Between Us | -50.1% | -51.7%


    Distance Weighted Average PTA drop: $3.96M | -52.7% | $62,919/Bux
    Distance Weighted Average BO drop: $4.41M | -53.2% | $70,054/Bux


    Seems okay, but not spectacular. Potential dark horse, though.



    THE SECRET LIFE OF PETS 2
    Movie | PTA_Drop_Perc | BO_Drop_Perc
    G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra | -36.2% | -52.5%
    Bumblebee | -19.2% | -37.1%
    The Fate of the Furious | -19.6% | -40.1%
    Oz The Great and Powerful | -29.6% | -39.3%
    42 | -24.5% | -38.7%
    Rio 2 | -6.79% | -25.6%
    Ant-Man and the Wasp | -22.7% | -35.5%
    Mary Poppins Returns | -10.0% | -36.4%
    Girls Trip | -31.7% | -39.6%
    Venom | -18.5% | -37.5%


    Distance Weighted Average PTA drop: $2.93M | -22.6% | $75,226/Bux
    Distance Weighted Average BO drop: $2.85M | -39.0% | $73,127/Bux


    Watch out for this one. Lots of the comps above have similar patterns, and point to a nice hold. That being said, those comps above are pretty weird aren't they? Definite BP contender here.

    @nux · KOTRT3
    Jul 11, 2019, 7:00pm PDT
  • Reply #6

    MEN IN BLACK: INTERNATIONAL
    Movie | PTA_Drop_Perc | BO_Drop_Perc
    Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald | -27.8% | -45.5%
    Unbroken | -20.1% | -50.6%
    Prisoners | -25.0% | -43.2%
    Us | -25.3% | -38.9%
    Oblivion | -24.2% | -43.2%
    The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part | -30.8% | -41.3%
    Into the Woods | -30.2% | -42.6%
    Glass | -17.0% | -37.5%
    Cars 3 | -23.5% | -42.0%
    Don't Breathe | -11.9% | -33.1%


    Distance Weighted Average PTA drop: $1.71M | -23.9% | $71,175/Bux
    Distance Weighted Average BO drop: $2.19M | -42.1% | $91,103/Bux


    The model likes MIB, but I think it lost too much volume, didn't it?



    ROCKETMAN
    Movie | PTA_Drop_Perc | BO_Drop_Perc
    Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 | -11.4% | -33.1%
    Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation | -18.1% | -32.5%
    Baby Driver | -7.79% | -43.9%
    How to Train Your Dragon 2 | -8.55% | -42.7%
    Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again | -3.42% | -37.3%
    Parental Guidance | -12.4% | -28.0%
    Trainwreck | -5.42% | -32.1%
    Django Unchained | -9.23% | -23.2%
    The Meg | -16.5% | -41.3%
    Les Miserables | -17.9% | -35.7%


    Distance Weighted Average PTA drop: $2.07M | -11.0% | $90,014/Bux
    Distance Weighted Average BO drop: $1.69M | -35.1% | $73,671/Bux


    Disclaimer: I guessed on Rocketman's TC. I may update before lock if I get a TC number. It looks real good with my high TC for now.



    AVENGERS: ENDGAME
    Movie | PTA_Drop_Perc | BO_Drop_Perc
    Monsters University | -8.67% | -71.1%
    Manchester by the Sea | -23.1% | -35.9%
    Green Book | -27.3% | -20.7%
    The Big Sick | -26.8% | -69.2%
    Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom | -24.0% | -71.7%
    Nebraska | -18.5% | -26.3%
    Spotlight | -26.1% | -22.8%
    Brooklyn | -31.4% | -4.01%
    Lion | 10.42% | 5.066%
    Bohemian Rhapsody | -18.5% | -28.1%


    Distance Weighted Average PTA drop: $1.83M | -19.3% | $91,469/Bux
    Distance Weighted Average BO drop: $1.87M | -40.0% | $93,407/Bux


    The model was SUPER high on Endgame last week, but when my BO drop and PTA numbers match up, I'm usually a little more comfortable. I think Endgame could actually do it this time.



    JOHN WICK 3
    Movie | PTA_Drop_Perc | BO_Drop_Perc
    Ant-Man | -34.7% | -42.1%
    Deadpool | -17.3% | -39.6%
    They Shall Not Grow Old | -21.4% | -40.5%
    St. Vincent | -44.9% | -37.3%
    The Secret Life of Pets | -7.87% | -8.87%
    Get Out | -17.5% | -44.1%
    Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 | -35.8% | -56.3%
    Divergent | -16.9% | -33.2%
    Trainwreck | -33.4% | -39.2%
    Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation | -25.7% | -47.1%


    Distance Weighted Average PTA drop: $1.22M | -25.5% | $63,983/Bux
    Distance Weighted Average BO drop: $1.3M | -38.8% | $68,501/Bux


    Not feeling it this week.



    CHILD'S PLAY
    Movie | PTA_Drop_Perc | BO_Drop_Perc
    Detroit | -37.5% | -70.3%
    The Disaster Artist | -36.4% | -67.4%
    Baahubali 2: The Conclusion | -40.1% | -62.3%
    You're Next | -39.1% | -64.5%
    Addicted | -22.4% | -55.0%
    Kevin Hart: Let Me Explain | -46.2% | -64.1%
    The Mountain Between Us | -26.7% | -52.8%
    Un Gallo con Muchos Huevos | -52.4% | -71.4%
    The Spy Who Dumped Me | -28.1% | -61.3%
    Unplanned | -44.1% | -66.5%


    Distance Weighted Average PTA drop: $0.44M | -37.2% | $55,360/Bux
    Distance Weighted Average BO drop: $0.53M | -64.1% | $66,870/Bux


    Oof. (Saved JW3 from the oof treatment)



    GODZILLA: KING OF THE MONSTERS
    Movie | PTA_Drop_Perc | BO_Drop_Perc
    The Nun | -41.6% | -69.0%
    Pokémon: Detective Pikachu | -22.9% | -71.3%
    Fifty Shades of Grey | -10.2% | -57.5%
    Miracles from Heaven | -4.35% | -49.9%
    Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues | -23.2% | -60.8%
    The Magnificent Seven | -8.15% | -66.1%
    If I Stay | -3.13% | -57.7%
    Barbershop: The Next Cut | -18.1% | -70.8%
    Love, Simon | -28.5% | -74.8%
    The Age of Adaline | -19.4% | -68.3%


    Distance Weighted Average PTA drop: $0.39M | -18.9% | $65,065/Bux
    Distance Weighted Average BO drop: $0.28M | -64.7% | $47,014/Bux


    Also bad!

    @nux · KOTRT3
    Jul 11, 2019, 7:01pm PDT
  • Reply #7

    Here is my model's normalized values. To get these values, I normalized the values with the SECOND highest value equal to the bonus bar that I set. This week I set my bar at 75k. Every value in the table below is based on the Nuxdistance % of that bonus bar as it compares to the highest value movie. BOLD denotes my BP.


    Movie | Value (PTA) | Value (BO Drop)


    Toy Story 4 | 64.3k | 60.5k
    Yesterday | 53.1k | 49.9k
    Aladdin | 59k | 53.4k
    Annabelle Comes Home | 52.4k | 57.7k
    The Secret Life of Pets 2 | 58.4k | 60.3k
    Men in Black: International | 59.3k | 75k
    Rocketman | 75k | 60.6k
    Avengers: Endgame | 76.2k | 76.9k (surprise surprise)
    John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum | 53.3k | 56.4k
    Child's Play | 46.1k | 55.1k
    Godzilla: King of the Monsters | 54.2k | 38.7k

    @nux · KOTRT3
    Jul 11, 2019, 7:01pm PDT
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