Thursday Fandango Check - Summer Week 2

@phils_phun_phlicks · Phil's Phun Phlicks!
Jun 13, 2019, 10:04am PDT

Ok, time to see how showtimes are shaping up for the Nielsen Top 40+1 markets. Data table is below…


http://analyzer.fmlnerd.com/showtimes/


And now, below, I present the FSS gross/show that you'll need to expect to in order for a movie to win the bonus. I get a lot of questions how I derive this, so here's a quick primer on how I calc this…


  • Total showtimes are set equal to [Shows/Theater] observed in the top 40+1 multiplied by the total number of theaters showing found on BOMojo and then slightly reduced to account for the fact that many theaters in the top 40+1 have far more screens than theaters in smaller areas. This factor ranges from 70%-98% and depends on the shows/theater.
  • If the theater count is known at the time of this writing, I use that theater count as the national number. If not, I take the observed theater change in the top 40+1 data and apply it to the national number with some adjustment based on how the Top 40+1 week over week dropped compared to the national drop. If the theater count is not known and it's a platform release expanding, I assume the Top 40+1 represents 40% of the total locations (based off past observation).
  • BO Receipts are set equal to Guyett's Bonus Bar unless new information necessitates a change.
  • Thursday preview show counts are estimated at a 10% addition to the weekend showcount unless noted otherwise.


Bonus Bar will be set at $75.0k.


The Newbies



Movie | Gross/show | Change from LW


Men in Black International | $455/show |DEBUT
Shaft (2019) | $480/show |DEBUT
Late Night | $287/show |DEBUT
The Dead Don't Die | $229/show |DEBUT


88k shows for Men in Black International is about 3k ahead of Dark Phoenix's OW in Jun-19. It grossed $383/show its OW.
52k shows for Shaft (2019) is about 2k ahead of Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral's OW in Mar-19. It grossed $538/show its OW.
25k shows for Late Night is about 2k behind On the Basis of Sex's OW in Jan-19. It grossed $228/show its OW.
9k shows for The Dead Don't Die is about 8k behind The Beach Bum's OW in Mar-19. It grossed $103/show its OW.


Holdover Tiers



Volume Winners - The options below saw a significant uptick or hold you may or may not have seen coming and may want to adjust your expectations up a bit.


None This Week


Nothing to See Here - The options below didn't see a significant shift in expected volume or theater splitting. I would suggest whatever you thought about them before this post remains the same.


The Secret Life of Pets 2 | $281/show |-25.4%
Dark Phoenix | $239/show |-33.2%
John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum | $229/show |6.5%
Booksmart | $173/show |-0.8%


Getting Dicey - The options below are either losing a decent number of theaters, are moving into a split screen situation after previously having a full screen at theaters showing them, or were priced for some expansion that did not come to pass. I wouldn't call them useless, but I'd temper expectations.


Aladdin (2019) | $379/show |0.6%
Godzilla: King of the Monsters | $256/show |17.5%
Rocketman | $240/show |2.2%
Ma (2019) | $171/show |0.7%


DOA - The options below likely lost too much volume to matter this week. Avoid if possible.


Avengers: Endgame | $276/show |30.4%
Pokemon Detective Pikachu | $220/show |48.3%
A Dog's Journey | $515/show |61.6%

8 Replies

  • Reply #1

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    @trayoder · Are You Fluent in Gif? (R)
    Jun 13, 2019, 10:27am PDT
  • Reply #2

    Aw, damn. Does anyone know off the top of their head a week in which an option in the Getting Dicey category took BP? I will look later tonight, but just curious. This thread is always super informative, thanks for doing this Phil!!!

    @genaros_bear · The Tardigrex
    Jun 13, 2019, 10:48am PDT
  • Reply #3

    @phils_phun_phlicks"This guy @zman2018 is unbearable." I laugh at that quote all the time.


    Here's my summary of this week's lineup plays..


    image

    @zman2018 · Terminus
    Jun 13, 2019, 11:13am PDT
  • Reply #4

    So Ma is still off?

    @william_fn_wallace · The Governo(R)
    Jun 13, 2019, 11:28am PDT
  • Reply #5

    Hey, Phil! Thanks for the info as always; is that Ma glitch still active on the Nielsen chart?

    @chillcat · ChillCat ツ
    Jun 13, 2019, 11:41am PDT
  • Reply #6

    He said earlier that as long as Ma is on the slate it's gonna be wonky

    @trayoder · Are You Fluent in Gif? (R)
    Jun 13, 2019, 11:46am PDT
  • Reply #7

    Too short of a title to do fuzzy matching on. That's my guess at least.

    @fourthwall · Fourth Wall
    Jun 13, 2019, 11:53am PDT
  • Reply #8

    If Ma was pulling up showtimes for other movies like RocketMan and BooksMart wouldn't that mean that it looks like it has more shows than it actually does? So is it likely to assume that it would need more than $171/show in order to hit the B.B.? Or am I not understanding what's going on here?

    @genaros_bear · The Tardigrex
    Jun 13, 2019, 12:37pm PDT
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